Who Will Become A Super Businessman In The Three Years Of Tmall And Jingdong?

In the second half of the year, Shang Chao became

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The new wrestling field, first Tmall supermarket (hereinafter referred to as "cat super") starts the "double 2 billion plan", striving to break through 100 billion scale in 3 years, and become the biggest business super line in China.

The 1 shop, which was bought by Jingdong, is also not to be outdone. It plans to invest 1 billion yuan in 3 months to start a low price competition.

Interestingly, Jingdong acquired the 1 shop at the beginning of its decline.

Eventually, it will become the next clap. Now, the 1 store after the change of ownership will be put on the offensive again. On the face of it, it will replace Jingdong as the leader in the fight against cat super. Actually, Jingdong intends to test its real combat effectiveness, that is, the comprehensive strength of supply chain, operation, logistics, after sale and so on.

Wang Chunhuan, a senior vice president of marketing operation Department of No. 1 store, said that "up to now, the biggest support for Jingdong to store 1 is mainly from the marketing level, including capital and WeChat diversion."

As we all know, marketing support is important, but not the core of online business, supply chain and logistics.

Therefore, the real leading role of Shang Chao war is still cat Chao and Jingdong. The 1 shop that is declining gradually can barely brush its sense of existence.

If the 3 years are successful, I will not hesitate to vote for the cat.

Funds: Jingdong loss VS Ali is not bad money

In mid July, Jiang Chao, the new managing director of the cat, said that the cat has become the largest, most importing commodity, the fastest growing user and the largest user.

Data show that at present, cats are over 10 million active users, with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2015.

In this regard, a Jingdong sales staff refused to accept, from sales scale, distribution coverage, investment cooperation three levels to return to the riverside.

For a while, cat Chao and Jingdong are among the most controversial online business providers.

In fact, at the present stage, it is of little significance to discuss who is the super hegemony of online traders. The key is to follow the growth space. The competition between businessmen is nothing more than the dispute of capital, mode and market expansion. The three is an important index to measure the overall strength of players. We may compare the cat and Jingdong from the above three levels to see who has greater potential for growth.

All along, the excellent user experience of Jingdong is based on high cost, resulting in loss becoming the norm.

According to the financial report, in 2015, Jingdong lost 9 billion 400 million, which was 88% higher than the 5 billion yuan loss in 2014. "Rong Deng" was the top 500 loss company in 2016.

In 2016, Jingdong still did not get rid of the shadow of losses. Q2 reported that Jingdong lost a net loss of 510 million 400 thousand yuan, although the loss narrowed compared with the previous year, but the cash flow situation has not been significantly improved.

For Jingdong with continuous losses, under the premise of limited capital and resources, Jingdong and No. 1 store double brand operators can not afford to pay their bills for long term, no matter who they lean toward, and the development constraints are inevitable.

At the same time, Jingdong is also facing an uncertainty in its expansion. If we support the 1 shop, we may be faced with a mediocre performance, making Jingdong miss the opportunity to seize the market.

In contrast, the rapid expansion of the money free cat appears more calmly. Last week, Ali announced its strongest quarterly earnings since its listing. Its revenue grew 59% over the same period last year, reaching 32 billion 154 million yuan, and the free cash flow was 12 billion 745 million yuan. It will continue to protect Ali's strategic investment.

Ali CEO Zhang Yong once defined the cat as the fourth consumer platform tied up with Taobao, Tmall and Juhuasuan. Both the PC terminal and the mobile terminal have opened the first level entry for them, which is the best proof. It is undoubtedly the hope of Ali's long-term strategic investment.

Last year, the cost of super consumer subsidies exceeded 1 billion yuan, and this year "double 2 billion plan" will further strengthen the consumer and server-side user experience, and only start, the future investment will be several times the Jingdong.

Predictably, backed by the big tree of Ali, capital will become an important bargaining chip for the cat to win in the super war.

Mode: Jingdong "pseudo supermarket" VS cat super pool.

Jingdong and Tmall's two big models have been the focus of discussion in the electricity supplier industry. The former mainly focuses on platform self operation, and Jingdong inherits this mode. The latter mainly focuses on brand self operation. On the basis of this, cats learn the joint mode of traditional department stores, forming a joint mode of "brand self operation, platform service", that is, joint venture between suppliers and suppliers, suppliers have pricing power, promotion rights, and commodity rights, while platform vendors are responsible for ordering, warehousing, distribution and after-sales service.

Shang Chao is the main consumer of fast food products. Users are mainly concerned about the abundance of commodities, whether the commodity prices are cheap, and whether the delivery speed is fast.

Among them, the richness of commodities is not well perceived. The prices of different commodities and Jingdong and cats are the best. What really can form a sense of user acceptance is the speed of delivery. This is precisely where the advantages of Jingdong are. The former CEO Shen Haoyu of Jingdong mall said with confidence that "Jingdong is surely the best carrier for fast consumer goods logistics."

However, with the domestic private courier competing for A shares, the third party logistics enterprises have a good momentum of development, especially after joining the rookie big data platform, Jingdong logistics advantage has been gradually weakened.

At the same time, Tmall has also launched a comprehensive effort to build logistics, spend 2 billion to build up supply chain, commodity structure and service upgrade, and 11 cities achieve "day to day, next day", and strive for a half day distribution experience.

In addition to the fact that logistics advantages are no longer prominent, the mode defects make Jingdong a fatal injury: in order to achieve profitability, Jing Dongdi's three party businesses (GMV) account for a growing proportion. Users can not buy one-stop shopping products, and Jingdong, which develops towards comprehensive e-commerce platform, can not guarantee high-quality user experience as before.

According to Jingdong's sales and marketing staff, the number of orders for double 11 Jingdong was over 7 million 200 thousand last year, while the amount of Jingdong orders exceeded 32 million orders on that day, and clothing orders accounted for more than 13 million of the total, accounting for 40%. This means that total orders for home appliances 3C, books, luxury goods and so on are 12 million, and Jingdong orders account for 22.5%.

Jingdong's previous reports show that third party GMV accounts for a growing proportion, and over 50% is only a matter of time. This means that a considerable proportion of Jingdong's 7 million 200 thousand comes from the third party.

Just imagine, if the supermarket self accounted for 22.5%, then self + third party orders accounted for more than 45%, household appliances 3C and other strong categories of orders accounted for less than 20%, which is obviously not in line with normal logic.

In other words, Jingdong is a "pseudo supermarket".

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In contrast, the biggest advantage of the cat super pool mode is to give full play to its duties and maximize its subjective initiative.

The cat has no production and marketing actions. It does not need to worry about the backlog of the inventory. The settlement by commission means more sales and more power to solve the weak links of shopping experience such as distribution and after-sale.

Most suppliers in traditional supermarkets are only responsible for the supply, and the hypermarket is responsible for pricing and promotion. The cat gives the pricing power and promotion right to the supplier, making it a deep cooperation partner, having retail functions, plus the cat has no front and rear profit margin. Only the platform sales discount points can dispel the doubts of the supplier platform and push the sales promotion, and focus on the editing and stock arrangement.

It is worth noting that after the supplier has become a cat super deep cooperation partner, there is still an unexpected advantage: the settlement cycle is only 10 days, the physical hypermarket accounts generally 45 to 60 days, and even up to 90 days, the Jingdong accounts for more than 30 days.

In fact, cash flow is more important than profit, whether it is electricity supplier or online dealer. The account period is the true embodiment of supply chain efficiency. Obviously, the cat is better than Jingdong.

At the same time, the change of account period will be directly reflected in the retail price of goods. The shorter the account period, the better the price.

Market development: Jingdong selection + logistics VS cat hyper operation

Online Shang Chao is regarded as the blue ocean that has not been developed in the electronic business field. Jingdong and cat have taken the lead in looking at a second tier city.

There are two main characteristics of Jingdong market expansion: selection and logistics.

In terms of product selection, Jingdong adhered to quality and selection routes, launched the select super channel, selected 50 thousand SKU from several million supermarket SKU, guaranteed the quality of products, and sold them through Jingdong self operated platform.

In terms of logistics, strong logistics distribution capability is a powerful guarantee for Jingdong's category and business expansion. The key layout providers are super O2O, Jingdong to home + dada carries this important mission, not only to meet the distribution needs of WAL-MART's offline stores, but also to provide goods distribution services for 1 stores in 13 cities of China, including Yonghui, Lotte, Sui Bao, new Yijia, 7-11, and Wuhan 100.

It is undeniable that Jingdong + Jingdong has expanded the depth and breadth of Jingdong in the business super field, but in the current low penetration of Internet to Shang Chao, the strategy of double line attack is too radical. It not only lacks focus but also expands losses, far from reaching the standard of fine operation.

In my opinion, the online business should go one step at a time. It can neither expand N cities at one time nor apply to the whole country in a single way.

In the second half of last year, the cat spent more than 1 billion yuan on the Beijing market, not only because Beijing was the base of Jingdong, but also the important position of the national political and economic center and the North China town. After the small business in Beijing, the cat first launched the localization operation strategy in the first half of this year, including Shanghai, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Take the selection of products as an example, the cat chose the locals' favorite brand to enter the warehouse, and entered Chengdu and Sichuan famous cooked food chain retail enterprise Liao Chi Bang chicken to complete the docking, and realized the source of goods globalization. By connecting with Tmall and Tmall international to attract investment links, joined the world's top 10 well-known high end supermarkets, Metro, Spain DIA, Germany Inferno goods will continue to be on the cat's shelves.

In addition to the choice of products on both the high and the ground gas, "warehouse + landing match" has also become a highlight of the cat's ultra deep operation.

The cat has set up warehousing and distribution centers in the core cities, integrating local service enterprises with strong service capabilities and distributing the surrounding cities to achieve the shortest distribution time.

At present, the cat super special-purpose warehouse has been upgraded from 11 locations to 19 big warehouses. The 11 city localization operation has upgraded to 31 cities localization operation, and truly serves the whole country.

Today, the Guangzhou warehouse is officially opened, and the number of daily picking items in Guangzhou Shenzhen area will reach 1 million.

Written in the end

At present, the Jingdong and the cat are in full force in a second tier city, and both sides rely on self employment to attract users. They are also confident of ending the online super war in 3 years. A fierce battle is inevitable. This year's market performance is very important.

The expected target of the cat is 40 billion yuan, which is 4 times of last year's sales volume. The rapid expansion of the Jingdong pressure is not small.

As for the 1 shop smashing the 1 billion battle cat super, it can only boost its own influence, and can not succeed in turning the battle, because it can not save the decline of shop No. 1 by burning money, but also can not hinder the cat's way forward.

In my opinion, the cat's way to the 3 billion scale road can not be separated from Taobao's diversion space and subsidies. It has strong support from adequate capital, healthy business mode and meticulous operation strategy, and will inevitably seize Jingdong users and markets.

In addition to the positive confrontation Jingdong, the cat will also impact the hypermarket, its customer price is 100 - 200 yuan, at least higher than the traditional business double, indicating that the cat is mainly satisfied with the demand for hoarding shopping, and the users need to spend some time for the family for a period of time. This is the same as the location of the shopping mall, and the impact of the latter is inevitable.

In the future, the cat will kill supermarkets or convenience stores in conjunction with community supermarkets and convenience stores. This is also in line with the trend of traditional retail formats: Community supermarkets will become better and better, and supermarkets will become more and more troublesome.