National Cotton Auction Enthusiasm Continued High And Foreign Market Is Quite Different.

This week, domestic cotton prices continued to rise and futures range was volatile.

It is understood that with the international cotton rebounded this week, cotton rebounded in India, India S-6 cotton prices rose 1.24 cents / pound, or 2.1%, India cotton yarn prices remained stable.

In contrast, Pakistan cotton cotton yarn prices down.

In September 18th, the average selling price of the standard grade lint in the mainland was 14128 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.04%, up 1295 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 10.1%.

The national cotton trading market electronic matching pactions in September the average contract price of 13650 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 345 yuan / ton, or 2.59%, up 1563 yuan / ton, or 12.9%.

In September 14th, Zhengzhou cotton futures contract settlement price in September was 13505 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 0.7%, up 775 yuan / ton, or 6.1%.

Two, domestic cotton yarn prices fell slightly.

This week, domestic cotton yarn prices continued to fall slightly.

In September 18th, 32 cotton combed yarn prices were quoted at 21555 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton last week, or 0.05%, and the polyester staple price was 6780 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton, or 0.59% lower than last week.

International cotton prices fell this week.

In September 16th, New York cotton futures contract settlement price in October was 67.74 cents / pound, down 1.14 cents / pound, or 1.66%, compared with last week.

The international cotton index (M), which represents the average price of the Chinese main port on the import cotton, is calculated at 1% tariffs. The cost of import of RMB is 13114 yuan / ton, down 356 yuan / ton compared with last week, or 2.64%, lower than that of last week.

1014 yuan / ton, the price difference expanded 361 yuan / ton last week.

Four, analysis and Prospect

Domestic cotton prices will rise again.

On the macro level, according to the latest data from the central bank, in the end of 8, the balance of M2 was 151 trillion and 100 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% over the same period last year, and the balance of narrow money (M1) was 45 trillion and 450 billion yuan, an increase of 25.3% over the same period last year.

According to the latest statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in August, the industrial added value of above scale increased by 6.3% in real terms, and the textile industry increased by 4.8%.

In the 1-8 month, the fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) of 366339 billion yuan, an increase of 8.1% in nominal terms, accounted for 404 billion 400 million yuan in fixed assets investment in textile industry, an increase of 9.5% over the same period last year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods amounted to 210505 billion yuan, up 10.3% over the same period last year.

Among them, clothing category increased by 16.9%.

Overall, the national economy in August is stable and good.

On the basis of fundamentals, on September 12-18, the China cotton reserve management company planned to sell 115 thousand and 200 tons of cotton reserves and 109 thousand and 800 tons of actual cotton products, all of which were domestic cotton, with a turnover rate of 95.35%.

As of September 18, 2016, the cumulative output of reserve cotton in 2015/2016 was 2 million 316 thousand and 700 tons, of which 2 million 20 thousand and 600 tons were made for domestic cotton and 296 thousand and 100 tons for imported cotton.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system, recently, most cotton fields in China are more suitable for weather and drought in some areas.

Huang Huai area and part of the the Yellow River River Basin are mainly sunny, rainy and rainy, which affect the cotton bolting. In the Yangtze River Valley, the drought in cotton fields is alleviated due to the rain of the "mulanti" typhoon. Most areas in Xinjiang are mainly sunny, with a slight increase in air temperature and heavy rainfall in some parts of Southern Xinjiang. Most of the cotton bottoms are laid out, and the yield and quality will be affected to a certain extent.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) this week closed down near the 20 day moving average, and was supported near the 5 day moving average.

In summary, domestic cotton prices are expected to pick up in the short term.

The international cotton price will be strongly oscillatory.

On the macro side, in September 14th, the European Union statistics bureau released the latest data showing that the industrial output in the euro area decreased by 1.1% in July.

In September 15th, the Bank of England announced that the benchmark interest rate should be maintained at 0.25% and the current QE scale remains unchanged.

On the same day, figures released by the US Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in the US amounted to 456 billion 300 million US dollars in August, a decrease of 0.3% in the annulus compared with 0.1% in the broader market.

Data released by the Federal Reserve show that the US industrial output rate fell by 0.4% in August, down 0.2% from market expectations.

In September 16th, the US Labor Department released data showing that the US CPI grew by 1.1% in August, up from 1%.

In terms of fundamentals, the US Department of agriculture report shows that on September 2-8, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 30 thousand and 900 tons, and that of 2016/17 cotton was 28 thousand and 300 tons.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 70.39 cents / pound, down 1.48 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

On the technical side, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) rebounded after the 12 day diving, and then fell down near the 20 day moving average. It is expected that there will be support near the 5 day moving average, and the possibility of strong oscillation is greater.