On The Annual Sales Plan For 2017

Believe in many

In the end of the Q3 quarter, the old manufacturers are already very busy: Double 11 planning and preparation plan, 2017 annual sales plan and target dismantling.

These important and serious operational problems are concentrated in the Q3 quarter.

What is the first indicator to be determined when formulating an annual sales plan? ---- growth rate of performance.

The growth rate is actually a fuzzy indicator. If the growth rate is set too low, the boss will not be satisfied with the annual goal.

If the growth rate is too high, then they will not finish it, which will affect the performance and bonus of their brothers.

Therefore, how to determine the performance growth rate is actually very useful.

There are many indicators that affect the growth rate of performance.

For example, this year's rate of success, the stock rate of goods, the policy adjustment of Tmall platform, the width and structure of commodities, the stability and growth of the operation team.

But today, I am not going to discuss with you how to set up the growth rate of performance.

Instead, I want to throw out a phenomenon that I found in the process of formulating the "2017 growth rate", for reference in the annual plan of the system, or in predicting the trend of 2017 performance.

Why do we need to write an article alone to analyze this phenomenon?

Because if we do not see this phenomenon and estimate the growth rate in 2017, we will lose our objective.

It will also "expect too much" for Tmall platform.

From the perspective of Tmall's small two, even the eyes of many executives of the company, we will maintain enough optimistic expectations for the growth of the electricity supplier in 2017.

But if you know this phenomenon, I think you must not dare to do so.

OK, gossip less.

First of all, I would like to ask you about Tmall 2016.

How do you see the growth of your sales? Did Tmall's flagship store grow? Did the growth rate win the overall growth rate of women's clothing under the Tmall platform? Did the growth rate fulfill your sales target?

For the growth of Tmall women's wear, I will provide two public answers here.

1 so far, in my personal data collection, the growth rate of Tmall platform women's clothing is about 6.8%.

2 traditional clothing

The franchise and wholesale business declined sharply, while self and e-commerce business became its sales growth point.

This point of view, whether friends around to explore each other, or media interviews, and even published by listed companies earnings.

Most of them are passing the same signals.

So far, so far.

Almost all of us have maintained a very optimistic attitude towards the growth of the electricity supplier channel.

This is a kind of inertia judgement based on everyone doing well in 2016.

But is this judgment reasonable? The fact is not what most people would expect.

The following table is the sales data of Tmall women's clothing brand group from January 2016 to August and the brand group in 2015.

From 3-8 months of data, we can conclude that:

From March 12016 to August, Tmall women's clothing group opened 3261 times (each merchant participated in a counting unit), the number increased by 98%. During the period, the total sales generated 4 billion 807 million, and the performance increased by 117%. It proved that more and more Tmall businesses began to focus on the brand group to impact sales.

2, the efficiency of each brand group has been improved (10%). It shows that the overall business operation capability of Tmall merchants in 2016 has been improved than that of last year. Under the great environment of the overall flow of Tmall platform, the major businesses have done better than last year.

From this, I came to a "terrible" conclusion: in 2016, the growth of Tmall women's clothing performance was based on the number of doubled brand groups.

This conclusion is very terrible!!!!!!

First of all, in 2016, the number of brand groups increased from 1646 times in 2015 to 3261 times.

Then, will this "unlimited" opening group continue in 2017? My answer is: No.

Those who are wise to Tmall will not know that frequent opening of a group is a kind of injury to sellers.

Therefore, Tmall platform will also strictly control the number of brand groups every month.

Second, the number of open groups is multiplying, which means that more Tmall sellers are eligible to participate in Juhuasuan brand.

If we take Juhuasuan's brand qualification as a threshold to measure whether a brand has become a Tmall's waist business, this data indirectly proves that the structure of Tmall's seller has changed a lot in 2016, and the number of sellers in the waist has increased by nearly 1 times, which means that the original waist sellers are facing more brutal market competition.

Finally, the increase in the number of brand groups in 2016 is also related to some of the holidays this year and stagger last year.

In my impression of the more profound, such as this year's mother's Day / Dragon Boat Festival, these two traditional festivals, in fact, last year has not been such a lot of Tmall business touted.

At the same time, in August this year, there was another concept of the Olympic Games, which was also the peak of a wave of brands last year.

So when we see this phenomenon,

We also dare to confidently say to our boss, "will Tmall's performance increase by XX% next year?" I am afraid, at that time, we must reduce the original growth target estimate by 5 percentage points.

(ha ha, anyway, that's what I did).

Finally, there are many indicators that affect the 2017 growth rate.

As mentioned above, it only excavated the reasons for the growth of Tmall platform in 2016, and judged its sustainability in 2017.

In order to judge the growth rate from a comprehensive perspective, I will list some of the indicators I personally consider for reference.