The Fed Has Been Delayed And The Interest Rate Has Been Delayed Again.

The Federal Reserve held a FOMC monetary policy meeting again in September, but it was again still in motion.

Trump once attacked the Federal Reserve. He said the Fed was in accordance with what President Obama meant.

Maintain a low position and create a "false economy".

Yellen's position as chairman of the Federal Reserve was appointed by Obama. In the 90s of last century, she was president Clinton's top economic adviser.

Another reason for this decision is that the Fed does not want to hamper further improvements in the US labour market.

This is also an argument that Brainard stressed in his dovish speech before the silent period.

Michael Harris, head of research at Renaissance Capital, believes that the Fed has cornered itself on raising interest rates and even been disturbed by Republican candidate Trump.

Michael Harris said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. (Federal Reserve Chairman) Yellen once said that she would not involve politics, nor would she discuss politics.

But I think the truth is that she is afraid of Trump.

Now the unemployment rate in the United States is 4.9%, no less than the level at the beginning of the year.

Taking into account the steady growth in employment during this period, that is, an average of 180 thousand employers are employed by employers each month, which means more labour force is moving from the outside to the active labor market.

Under such circumstances, the employment market has room for further recovery without stimulating inflation.

In addition, there are other reasons for the Federal Reserve to be cautious.

When the next economic downturn comes, the Fed has only limited space to relax its policy.

In this regard, it is much less risky to stay put than to rush hastily and tighten policies to trigger economic downturns.

Moreover, the decline in neutral interest rates means that monetary policy is still more moderate.

From now on,

There seems to be little need: the Fed's forecasts imply that interest rates will rise only once this year, two times in 2017 and three in 2018 and 2019.

In the latest forecast, the median of the long-term federal funds rate has dropped from 3% to 2.9%.

Pacific Investment Management Company Global Strategy Consultant Clarida (Richard Clarida) said:

"The dot map of the following years shows that the Fed is more inclined to pigeons in terms of pace and targets.

This will be a very gradual increase in interest rates. "

Is there any other reason besides that? Gallup, chief executive of the survey company, wrote that because of the "sinking" of the middle class, the US economy is in fact in crisis.

Because of mergers and bankruptcies of small businesses, the United States is rapidly losing middle income jobs.

If the trend continues, the United States will lose the entire middle class.

And looking at the whole country, 10% of 2.5 adults (25 million).

It all collapsed like this.

They are already out of the middle class, but they are not seen in the 4.9% official unemployment rate widely reported by the media.

What is worse is the psychological blow that these people are going to bear.

The sudden decline in household income may lead to the collapse of self-esteem. The sinking of the middle class of the United States has created a desperate environment that has never been seen since the great depression.

Therefore, three important indicators must be reversed, otherwise the United States will lose the middle class.

1. According to the Bureau of labor statistics, the percentage of full-time jobs among adults in the United States has been hovering around 48% since 2010, the lowest level of full-time employment since 1983.

2, the number of companies listed on the US stock exchange has halved in the past twenty years.

This is because companies do not have more customers to develop more businesses, but rather to buy high priced competitors, thereby reducing the number of Listed Companies in the United States.

This has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of middle-income jobs in the United States.

3, new ventures are at a historic low.

Americans have stopped starting businesses.

And the established enterprises are developing at a low speed.