Changes In The Fed'S Rate Hike Have Tightened Nerves In The Market.

As the last high-ranking official's speech before the meeting ended in September, when the Fed entered the "silent period", the market's interest rate expectations for this month also dropped sharply.

From the US federal funds interest rate futures trading, with the end of the Brainard speech, the possibility of raising interest rates this month also increased rapidly from 28% to 22% before the speech.

As of 8:10 Beijing time, this possibility further dropped to 15%.

Lael Brainard, the Fed governor, made a speech in Chicago this morning in Beijing, saying that although the US economy has made progress, the improvement of the labour market has limited inflation.

Caution should be taken, not to raise interest rates too quickly, and to maintain a relaxed policy is a smart move.

Brainard was the last Federal Reserve official to deliver a public address before the Fed's September 21st meeting.

The Federal Reserve will enter the "silent period" before the FOMC meeting on Tuesday.

Wall Street heard earlier that Brainard had the right to vote at the FOMC conference. She has always been regarded as one of the most dovish Fed officials, and her position is relatively close to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Yellen.

If Brainard's latest speech is a bit hawkish, there is no doubt that it will set off the market.

However, from her statement, she did not give a clear hint that raising interest rates in September is still a mystery.

In the past few weeks, the market has been under a lot of pressure from hawkish views. "With the coming of the conference, the interest rate increase in September is far from being settled."

Before that, the Fed's senior officials' speech and US economic data triggered.

The change made the market tense.

Yellen first said at the end of last month's Jackson Hole central bank meeting that the US economy is moving towards the two major targets of the Federal Reserve, and that the GDP growth rate is enough to push the labour market to continue to improve. In recent months, the situation has increased the possibility of raising interest rates.

Subsequently, the Federal Reserve correspondent Jon Hilsenrath said that Yellen's speech raised the Fed's interest rate opening in September, but if the data in the next few weeks are not good enough, Yellen will also give him a way to raise interest rates. The key is to see the report on non farm employment in August.

Goldman Sachs also raised the rate of interest rate hike in September from 30% to 40%.

However, a few days later, the number of new non farm employment data released in August was only 151 thousand.

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The federal reserve fund interest rate futures showed that the rate of interest rate hike in September dropped to 18% from 24% before the report was released, and then rose to 21%.

After the release of non-agricultural data, Goldman Sachs said that in August, non agriculture arrived just to support the rate hike in September, and further raised the rate of raising interest rates from 40% to 55%.

Last week, because of the disappointing data of ISM's non manufacturing industry in the United States, and Fed officials did not send a clear signal to raise interest rates, Goldman finally lowered the rate of interest rate hike in September, from 55% to 40%.