Strong Dollar Makes RMB Pressure Depreciation Expected Slow Down

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Continued rebound and other factors, in August 8th, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the spot rate of exchange rate has dropped considerably.

Analysts say that the US dollar will soon force the RMB exchange rate to bear pressure, but in the medium and short term, the RMB to us dollar exchange rate is expected to continue the operation pattern of interval shocks, and the central level will remain stable basically.

The bank pointed out that in the future, it will continue to improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate marketization and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

In the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is 1 yuan against RMB 6.6615 yuan.

The intermediate price fell sharply by 209 basis points from 6.6406 of the previous trading day, and hit a new low for nearly a week.

Statistics further show that in the 6 trading days of the RMB to us dollar exchange rate since August, up to 5 trading days adjusted more than 150 basis points, and the volatility has been enhanced.

The spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar also dropped significantly with the middle price.

On the same day, the RMB against the US dollar spot exchange rate early opened 158 basis points at 6.6610, and the closing price at 16:30 was 6.6624, down 172 basis points or 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, and fell for third consecutive trading days.

However, compared with a low of 6.7030 in July 18th, the Yuan's latest closing price against the US dollar rebounded by 406 basis points or 0.61%.

Offshore renminbi, yesterday's Hongkong market RMB against US dollar spot.

The performance is equally weak.

As of 16:30 Beijing time at 16:30 on the 8 day, the Yuan's exchange rate of CNH against the US dollar was 6.6710, significantly lower than the previous trading day by 374 basis points or 0.56%.

The spreads on offshore and offshore RMB exchange rates also widened slightly.

Foreign exchange traders said that last week, the labor department released the July non farm employment data, which was much better than market expectations. The news continued to push up the US dollar, but also boosted the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike during the year.

In this context, it is also reasonable that the RMB is softening with other major non US currency exchange rates.

But the mainstream market believes that the RMB exchange rate will continue to run smoothly in the medium term and short term since the second half of the year.

The 5 quarter of the central bank released the latest two quarter

The implementation report points out that the derivatives market reflects the expectation that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has been eased.

The June 30th onshore and offshore forward quotations showed that after 1 years, the RMB to us dollar exchange rate was 6.7257 yuan and 6.8063 yuan respectively, and the expected depreciation rates were 1.2% and 2.4% respectively. Offshore RMB non deliverable forward offer shows that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is 6.8170 yuan after 1 years, and the expected depreciation rate is 2.5%.

Central

Everbright Securities and other institutions believe that, in recent months, such as foreign exchange reserves, capital flows and other factors, the central bank will reduce the cost of intervention in the future, and will guide the exchange rate changes to avoid the consistent expectations of the market. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fluctuate considerably in the future, but the central level will remain stable.