Cotton Auction Reappears Enthusiastically, Cotton In The Northern Hemisphere Is On Sale.

According to the latest growth survey data of the national cotton market monitoring system, the domestic cotton output in 2016 was 4 million 916 thousand tons, up 77 thousand tons compared with the June survey results.

The auction of cotton reserves has been repeated vigorously, and the stock of mainland enterprises is relatively abundant before the new cotton is listed in large quantities.

As the cotton in the northern hemisphere has been listed, the global cotton price is facing pressure in the middle term.

We need to pay close attention to the impact of economic and financial factors on the cotton market.

1, in the next 3 months, the spot price of international cotton will turn from strong to weak.

This month's report shows that India and Pakistan continue to be strong in the early years due to lack of resources.

The price of cotton yarn has begun to show signs of strength.

US cotton is about to enter the export contract and shipping peak. China's new cotton will start listing in large quantities in the middle of 10 and enter the mainland market. India new cotton will be listed in large quantities before and after the November, and will fundamentally alleviate the tension in India's domestic cotton demand.

Although the Federal Reserve announced that it would not raise interest rates in September 22nd, Yellen recently made a rare statement that he would raise interest rates once a year, and the industry thought that the increase rate boots would come down in December.

With the abundant supply of new cotton resources and the potential impact of economic growth rates on commodity prices, we can expect that the global cotton prices will be strong or weak throughout the next 3-4 months.

2, a large number of new pre market cotton textiles are mainly cotton reserves. Xinjiang is buying or buying now, but the tide will eventually recede.

Since mid September, the national cotton storage and export business has been booming again, and prices are rising again.

It is intended to avoid the uncertainty of resource prices at the beginning of new cotton market through reasonable arrangement of reserve cotton stocks.

According to preliminary estimates, by the end of September, the turnover of cotton reserves can reach more than 2 million 600 thousand tons.

According to the production and sale data of the national cotton monitoring system, by the end of September, the national reserve cotton industrial and commercial inventories will be around 600 thousand tons, about 28 days of spinning cotton consumption, and the imported cotton will enter about 70 thousand tons per month, which can connect to the new cotton list after the middle of October.

At present, new flower picking and sale are in progress.

The hot situation of the reserve cotton paction and the shortage of new cotton resources led to the greater imagination of the cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Xinjiang.

According to the national cotton monitoring system, the price of Xinjiang's purchase has moved upward in recent years. In September 26th, the 3128B main body had reached 14676 yuan / ton (including processing cost of 1000 yuan).

But on the other hand, the mainland textile mills, traders, cotton and civilian cotton customers, and even cotton seed purchasers in the near future to investigate, inquire and see goods are fewer than in the same period last year.

The purchase and sale of seed cotton and lint has been somewhat chilly.

At present, the picking and listing of new flowers are delayed.

According to the monitoring system's new cotton picking and sale progress monitoring, as of September 23rd, the national cotton picking rate was 7.6%, which was 11.7 percentage points lower than the average in the past four years, and the selling rate was 24.5%, down 3.5 percentage points, and the sales rate was 2.6%, slowing down 8.6 percentage points.

It is estimated that after mid October, with the pickup of cotton picked up in Xinjiang, a large number of lint is on the market, and the processing enterprises will increase the purchasing cost of the diluted rental, accelerate the capital turnover by quickening the sales strategy, and begin to have the demand for replenishment when the stock of the state-owned cotton stores starts to decline.

3, mid and late November to the end of the year, domestic or seasonal price depression, but the bottom depth is limited.

Similarly, due to the abundant supply of new cotton resources and the resonance with the current international supply of cotton resources, coupled with the anticipation of the Fed's interest rate increase before the end of the year, commodity prices are temporarily affected. In addition, some enterprises are facing the pressure of loan repayment at the end of the year. It is initially estimated that there will be stage depressions in the domestic cotton prices during the period from mid November to the end of the year.

However, because of the limited domestic cotton resources, some large textile enterprises may lock in the supply of goods, and some trading enterprises will arrange a small number of commercial stocks, which will support the cotton price, and the bottom of the depression is not deep.

4, the domestic new cotton sales pressure is not large, and the degree of competition between buyers and sellers determines the price of cotton.

For Xinjiang cotton, according to the monitoring system monitoring data, Xinjiang cotton production is about 3 million 780 thousand tons, accounting for about 60 to 800 thousand tons of cotton production throughout the year, and only about 3 million tons of cotton need to be exported.

After November, the cotton producers in the mainland will mainly use Xinjiang cotton. By the end of February, Xinjiang cotton will reach 2 million tons or 1 million tons or so in 3-8 months.

Therefore, the sales pressure of Xinjiang cotton is not big.

As long as we do not rush to buy seed cotton or rush to stockpile goods, we will have a great chance to ensure the profit of reasonable links while processing and selling.

This is especially true for the mainland cotton. According to the monitoring data, the output of cotton in the mainland is about 1 million tons, which is concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Anhui.

5, we need to pay close attention to the trend of outward cotton, India Pakistan yarn and macroeconomic factors, and adjust our strategy in time.

No commodity or country can be independent of the international market and macroeconomic background.

The new pricing mechanism and the integration of the spinning Market of the reserve cotton warehouse have made the domestic cotton market and the international cotton market more interactive and sensitive.

Although the global and Chinese economies are slightly improving, they are still fragile.

The impact of the November general election, the end of the year or interest rate increase on the economy and commodities will be more uncertain.

Remind enterprises that they must keep an eye on the environment and adjust their business strategy in time.