The Gem Index Has Not Been Innovating Low And Has Led The Market Upwards Many Times.

October is undoubtedly a month of rich connotation.

From the perspective of China's economy, the property market quickly triggered the control measures after the big price increase. It is expected that the bubble will stabilize and asset prices will not rise rapidly.

Caixin September China manufacturing PMI data show that in September, PMI reported 50.1, leaving the contraction interval for three consecutive months, indicating signs of stabilization in the economy.

In the late October, the upcoming meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee is expected to further enhance the new momentum of economic growth and inject strong policy space into the capital market.

As a matter of concern about asset protection or exchange rate, we have already thought that the short-term rise in the property market will not be too violent, nor will we strongly suppress the housing market and make the economy suffer major disasters. Then, maintaining the stability of the RMB will be predictable.

In October 1st, the renminbi will become the SDR (SDRs) super sovereign currency.

This is a milestone in the process of RMB internationalization.

In the future, the renminbi will play a more important role in the world economic arena and occupy a larger share of the global reserve manager's asset allocation.

In the capital market, MSCI declined to include A shares in the emerging market index for several times. In a statement on Thursday, it said that the positive development of the A share market was observed, but it still needed some time to pay attention to the implementation of the policy changes and its effectiveness, and pointed out that

It will help to solve the problem of profit pfer faced by foreign investors and the marginal decrease in the number of A shares suspended.

We have noticed that the distance between Shenzhen and Hong Kong is getting closer and closer.

In the long holidays, the us likes to overtake corners, when China

At the opening, they fell; when the Chinese stock market stopped trading, they rose rapidly, and when they returned to the market, they began to use the drop to exert their influence.

This time, it is estimated that the trick will have to be put on again.

However, China's stock market has been running independently according to its own trajectory. It is summed up in four words: "disgrace".

This is mainly because the long-term weakness has made the fund lose enough patience and confidence to the market.

In the first half of the year, funds were pferred to the commodity futures market, and the futures market was brought into full swing. By September, funds would prefer to choose the real estate market again, so that the bubble of the property market would become bigger and bigger, so that they had to buy everywhere. The scope and intensity of regulation and control were expanding and deepening.

Therefore, no matter how good it is, it will not be able to wake up those sleeping capital. No matter how bad it is, it will not be able to hit a sleeping index, because the Chinese stock market has been lying on the ground.

However, after the holiday is still worth looking forward to. Multiple factors can restore the vitality of the market, giving birth to the first and last wave of "eating" in the year.

We first analyze the market position from the technical level.

This Friday is the date of multi line formation.

From the monthly line,

For 5 consecutive months, it received more than the average of May, which is the first golden fork after 1 years of the May moving average, and the monthly line did not go bad. This means that although the consolidation date has been 8 months this year, it has not gone bad.

From a slightly shorter weekly line, it closed below 3000 points this week on the 4 day and gained support on the 30 week life line, and the 5 week line on the last trading day shows that the 3000 point has not been effectively cracked. As long as the first week of October pulls out of Zhongyang, the EMA can still get out of the form of multi line attack.

The above is the situation of the big market. This week, most of the stock market was triggered by the stock market, and the technical indicators did not go bad.

This is because the gem index is not only low in innovation this week, but also has led the market upwards many times.

The gem index fell 1.91% in September, and the weekly line fell by 0.31%, which was significantly stronger than the market.

In October, a number of moving average lines on the GEM board have been fully bonded to the 2160 points, and will form a strong change.

The performance in September increased the probability of its upward turnover in October.

In the short term, we hope to analyze whether there is enough catalyst from the macro meso micro policy message level to bring the market together with more effort.

Historical data show that the trend of the week before the National Day is much lower or higher.

In the 11 years since 2005, there has been a 7 rise in October, with only 4 falls.

Among the three days of the first week after the national day, the probability of rise is as high as 90%, and the average increase is 2.3%.

It is worth mentioning that the "red envelopes" were the largest in the 2009 and 2010 holidays, and the stock index rose more than 7% in the week after the national day.

In October last year, the market rose by 10.8%.

With this kind of psychological expectation, under the support of technical level, with the stimulation of historical and symbolic good policies and information, the superposition of multiple factors or the force of floods can produce a first or last wave of autumn harvest.

It is worth mentioning that many stocks have been down for a long time because of the long-term downturn in the general trend of the environment, resulting in funds being forced to focus on other stocks or subject stocks.

When the trend of the flood force takes effect, the funds will attack every corner, so the wild lily can produce a bitter fruit in late autumn.