Foreign Exchange Reserves To Refresh 5 Years Low, Should We Regain The Momentum Of Decline?

China's foreign exchange reserves have dropped again.

Central bank data showed that China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3 trillion and 166 billion 380 million at the end of 9, the lowest since May 2011, falling for 3 consecutive months.

Analysts believe that the peaking of the real estate cycle will bring further devaluation pressure on the RMB exchange rate.

The central bank data show that in September, China's official foreign exchange reserves stood at $3 trillion and 166 billion 382 million, a decrease of US $18 billion 785 million from last month, a decrease of US $15 billion 890 million in August and a third month decline in US dollar terms.

SDR caliber, the official foreign exchange reserve in August was 2 trillion and 268 billion 485 million SDR, a decrease of 15 billion 865 million SDR from last month, a decrease of 12 billion 981 million SDR in July and a two consecutive decline in SDR caliber.

In September, the absolute value of the official foreign exchange reserves of 3 trillion and 166 billion 382 million US dollars also continued to set a new low in five years, which is equivalent to the official foreign exchange reserve level in May 2011.

Peng Bo believes that in the market speculation that China's central bank may sell dollars to support the RMB environment, China's external reserve decline in September once again exceeded expectations.

Zhao Yang, chief economist of Nomura, said that the increase in China's foreign exchange reserves was mainly due to the central bank's efforts to increase its stability and exchange rate in September, and by intervening in the foreign exchange market and selling dollars to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, thereby sacrificing some of its foreign exchange reserves.

According to the macro report of Kay, according to their estimates, the Central Bank of China sold about $27 billion in September to support the RMB exchange rate.

As for the decline in foreign exchange reserves, Yao Shaohua, senior economist at Hang Seng Bank, pointed out that there were three main reasons why foreign reserves fell over expectations in September.

First, the G20 summit was held in Hangzhou in September and the yuan formally joined SDR in October 1st. The people's Bank of China may have used some of its reserves to stabilize the RMB exchange rate.

Secondly, the renminbi.

In September, a slight depreciation or some capital outflow; three, the mainland enterprises to accelerate the pace of "going out", some capital contributed by foreign exchange reserves, and also led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves.

It is worth mentioning that in October 1st, the RMB was formally incorporated into the IMFSDR basket of currencies, marking a landmark step in the internationalization of RMB.

Zhang Tao, the new vice president of Chinese Vice President of IMF, said that the basket basket helps China's financial policy reform, and will support China's ongoing reform in monetary policy, foreign exchange market and financial system to help China better integrate into the international financial market family.

Huatai Securities Li Chao believes that China's existing

No substantial changes are made in basketball, so it is not appropriate to overemphasize the impact of basketball.

From the official foreign exchange reserve data, the reserves decreased by US $18 billion 785 million in September, but in view of interest income and valuation effects, the decline in official foreign exchange reserves in September may be even greater.

The basket of RMB has not changed the trend of RMB depreciation cycle.

Since the middle of 7, the renminbi has been the key point against the US dollar, and the central bank's maintenance at this critical point is more obvious, which has been held many times since the beginning of the year. The 6.7 point is that the renminbi is more important than the US dollar.

But during the national day, it was broken, and the National Day holiday dropped by 7.6%, reaching a minimum of 6.7184.

In October 3rd, offshore renminbi closed at 6.6782, or 1.07%; in October 4th, the closing price of offshore renminbi was 6.6935, or 2.1%; in October 5th, offshore renminbi closed at 6.6976, reaching 6.6998 at the 6.7 threshold; in October 6th, the offshore renminbi fell below the 6.7 threshold, reaching a minimum of 6.7184, hitting a new low of two and a half months.

Among them, the amplitude was the largest in October 6th and the offshore renminbi fell by 2.7% against the US dollar.

In October 7th, offshore CNH continued to oscillate against the US dollar to near 6.71.

On the other hand, due to the absence of the holiday, the exchange rate difference between the two banks broke through 400 points, hitting a 4 month high of CNY.

Market participants analyzed that before the currency loosening plus the depreciation of the renminbi,

Looking for value preservation assets, the property market has become the main carrier.

However, the current price rises too fast, just past the National Day golden week, the domestic front-line and second tier cities have increased the restriction of real estate purchase and loan policy, and the property paction has dropped to freezing point.

With the cooling of the property market, a lot of hot money will find a way out.

Many people think of gold and dollars.

Since gold prices are still suppressed before the second increase in the US dollar, the US dollar may be more sought after.

Huatai Securities Li Chao believes that the nationwide real estate regulation and control policy will cool the real estate market in the near future, and this round of real estate small cycle is expected to peak.

The peaking of real estate will bring further devaluation pressure to the RMB exchange rate.

With the increase in regulation and control, the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through the 6.70 integer pass during the holiday period, reaching the highest level near 6.7190.

The onshore market is expected to further upgrade the pressure of capital outflow in the future, and the RMB exchange rate will further impact the integer resistance level of 6.7. It is estimated that the RMB exchange rate will break 6.7 in the 4 quarter, but the probability of significant depreciation is not high.