Yang Delong: It's A Good Time To Enter The Market.

Recently, we have seen the mainland market, other than the stock market, other markets are very popular, such as the property market, commodity futures are very popular, and Hong Kong stocks are also strong.

The A share is relatively low, the main reason is that although A shares have seen a rebound trend in the first half of this year, the effect of money making is not obvious. Many over-the-counter funds are still on the sidelines and have not been actively admitted.

After three rounds of last year's stock market crash, many investors' confidence has been dealt a heavy blow, and confidence recovery is hard in the near future.

So I put forward a point of view of the slow cow, the market direction is upward, but the increase will be very slow.

The hot property market diverted some funds from the stock market, and some funds diverted from the stock market to speculation.

Such a choice is probably not right, because the result of catching up is often high quilt.

But when the market is crazy, it is hard to restrain some of the funds from rising.

In addition, the strong trend of Hong Kong stocks also diverted part of the capital through Hong Kong and Shanghai through QDII and other channels to Hong Kong stocks.

As we can see, Hong Kong stocks have rebounded today, and the gains are relatively large.

It may be related to the presidential candidate's televised debate. The trend of Hong Kong stocks is still on the rise. Before the Spring Festival this year, A shares saw the bottom of history after seeing the historical bottom. At that time, I pointed out that after breaking through 19000 points, Hong Kong stocks had a very good buying opportunity, and now they are out of the bottom of the 19000 point, showing a relatively good upward trend.

However, in fact, compared with US stocks, Hong Kong stocks are still relatively small. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still the lowest in the world's major markets.

From this point of view, Hong Kong stocks will not be substantially adjusted, but will continue to go up after a short period of adjustment, so it is still an opportunity to enter.

A part

People will consider housing and vacation during the holidays in October, and the stock market volume is low before the festival.

Money is profit driven. The pursuit of a crazy property market is natural, but the risk of investment will increase sharply.

When discussing the comparison between the property market and the stock market, we can now consider the cash flow from the property market. It may be a sensible choice to copy some blue chips in the stock market.

In October, the negative factors were relatively small. The strengthening of US stocks and Hong Kong stocks gave A shares a chance to make up for inflation. There should be a rebound.

Some people think that during the eleven period, when we look at the building, we will decide to buy a house.

In fact, it may be found that the house is too expensive to continue to return to the stock market.

In fact, after the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the price difference between AH shares has gradually shrunk. We have seen that the premium index of AH shares has dropped from 150 to about 120, and the A share has fallen from 50% to 20%.

After opening, the figure will fall further, but it will not completely eliminate the difference.

The difference between the valuation of the two stock markets is related to many factors, for example, 80% of A share investors are scattered, while the Hong Kong stock market is the opposite.

The risk acceptance ability of retail investors is relatively strong, leading to a high valuation.

In addition, the capital structure of the two places is also different. Hong Kong stocks are open to global capital, and are affected by the liquidity of global capital. A shares are relatively closed. The abundant liquidity of domestic stock will raise the price of A shares.

Therefore, the existence of AH difference is reasonable, and it is not necessarily eliminated after the exchange of investment.

In addition, the gap between different industries is different. For A high growth industries, the valuation premium is indeed enjoyed.

But A shares.

Valuations are low, and some are even cheaper than Hong Kong stocks.

The restriction on the proportion of QFII stock investment will be abolished, so that QFII will have more flexibility. The allocation of assets can be adjusted according to the market changes, which is equivalent to loosening the QFII.

This loosening will reduce the QFII investment restrictions. When the market prospect is not good, or the stock valuation is high, QFII can reduce the allocation of stock assets.

On the other hand, it increased QFII's willingness to invest in the domestic market.

Because fewer restrictions, it can be more flexible configuration, so that there will be a stronger willingness to inflow into the country, and can not simply be interpreted as bad.

A shares have been very vocal in the recent accession to the MSCI index. Easing the restrictions on QFII does help A shares join MSCI.

In June this year, A shares were likely to join, but they were postponed for some reasons.

At the time of announcing the delay, it indicated that it would not necessarily wait until next June to decide again. As long as the company believes that A shares have the conditions to join MSCI, it will be ready to enter any time.

The abolition of QFII has promoted the process of A shares joining MSCI. From this perspective, this is a good thing.