Why Can'T The Stock Market Continue To Be "Comfortable"?

Between "comfort" and "bad luck", there is always a continuous cycle - is this fate playing a trick on us? Every time when "bad luck" happens, we will conscientiously sum up experience and lessons, and build a new framework slowly according to the new changes in the market, which will make us once again "comfortable".

But soon, there will be new changes that will destroy the framework and make us unlucky again. Every time from "comfort" to "bad luck" will make us doubt our faith and feel helpless, and even feel that fate is deliberately playing tricks on ourselves.

The perfect system and strict logic are sometimes armour and sometimes shackles.

Many customers prefer to read our reports because they feel that the system is perfect and logical.

Over the years, we have been pursuing the best consistency and rigour of logic, and feel that logic is like wearing a "helmet", so that we are not afraid of challenges.

But every time when we are from "comfortable" to "unlucky", we often think that sticking to the previous logic is just the idea and the integrity. At this time, armour will become a shackle. The logic that we continue to blindly persist and no longer apply will bind us and lose it will be very miserable.

After the rise and fall, we gradually understand that the most essential operating mechanism of the stock market is affecting our fate.

Over the past seven years, I have gradually begun to understand that as long as I am still in the market, I will never escape from "comfort" to "bad luck", because the most fundamental operation mechanism of the stock market is the ups and downs that affect our fate. We are working hard to build a system and improve our framework. The database is growing bigger and bigger, and we are anxious to make all the difference.

All factors are found and closely followed.

however

The most essential operation mechanism is that the factors we track will really affect the market, but at different times, the weight of each factor on the market is different, and the most powerful and core driving factor is constantly switching.

In fact, from 2012 to the present, the core driving factors of the market have gone through the switch from fundamentals to liquidity driven, and to risk preference driven switching. When our analysis system coincides with the core driving factors of the time, it will be "comfortable", but when core drivers change, and we are still using the old analysis system, we will be very "unlucky".

Stock index continues upward, quantity can be mildly amplified, the whole is still very healthy situation.

If the volume can be further enlarged, the market will be more spectacular.

In our philosophy, as long as there is no obvious risk in the market, it is time to actively dig out stocks and seize stocks.

That is to say, at this stage, stock selection is more important than timing.

Judging from the disk, the small cap stocks represented by the gem index rose larger yesterday, and the overall volatility was the main factor on Tuesday, and the related blue chips were more active.

The small cap stocks are more likely to continue to rush after the rest, because the activity of the small cap stocks is higher, and they are also the first to start, and the degree of capital participation is even higher.

Hot spots on Tuesday, logistics stocks, Shenzhen plate and so on, what is the logic behind it? In fact, it is very simple: "double eleven" is coming.

Warm-up has begun.

The concept of logistics and electricity providers first benefits from the "double eleven". The logistics data of "double eleven" are not the biggest in history.

In addition to the SOE reform and Shenzhen Hong Kong link, the Shenzhen plate also benefited from the "double eleven" because this year's "double eleven" gala will be held in Shenzhen.

Therefore, the concept of "double eleven" will continue to be active and worthy of attention.

The theme of high delivery will also gradually increase, and some stocks have changed frequently.

If the pfer of shares to the stock market is high, it is worth further digging.

The relevant logic and the rhythm of speculation have been discussed.

Or that phrase, the market stronger, the stock is more important than timing.

Since June of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded from 2800 to 3100. At that time, the logic of "asset shortage" became popular again.

We have analyzed the market from the point of view of risk preference and capital stock game. In the face of "money is more capricious", we have no strength to fight back. On the other hand, almost all sectors of the market have gone up in the last two months, but the internal logic of plate rotation is hard to grasp, so recently we are beginning to feel a bit uncomfortable.