Domestic Cotton Prices Will Face Adjustment Pressure In The Short Term And Market Risk Will Increase.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, the producer prices of industrial producers rose by 0.1% in September, ending the 54 month decline in the same period last year, the first time since March 2012.

The national consumer price level rose 1.9% year-on-year, or 0.6 percentage points more than in August.

China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.4%, unchanged from last month, continuing to be higher than the critical point.

In addition, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in September 2016, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 22 billion 764 million US dollars, down 15.41% from the same period last year.

In terms of fundamentals, the price of seed cotton rose too fast during the "eleven" period, far beyond the capacity of cotton enterprises.

At present, the purchase price of hand picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang is around 7.5 yuan / kg, while prices in some areas have dropped to 7-7.3 yuan / kg, but the spot price of lint remains relatively strong.

Southern Akesu, Bachu and other regional regulatory libraries hand picking cotton "3128, 3129" gross weight pick up price 15500-15800 yuan / ton; Northern Xinjiang, Kuitun, Shihezi and other regions "2128, 2129" platform weight lifting offer 15800-16000 yuan / ton.

The price of new cotton is relatively high, and the sales price of the regiment will be around the corner. The market is still in a wait-and-see state, with less actual turnover.

According to the state

The market monitoring system understands that recently, the main cotton areas in the Yangtze River Valley have fine weather, the cotton picking speed has been speeded up, the percentage of seed cotton padded clothes has been improved, and the cotton bolls in some cotton areas have been postponed. In northern Xinjiang, rain and snow have cooled down and strong winds have affected the acquisition of cotton picking.

As of October 14th, the national cotton picking rate was 48.4%, down 2.8 percentage points over the same period.

The picking rate was 48.2%, and the national sales rate was 63.5%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period, of which Xinjiang's sales progress was 73.9%.

In terms of technology, Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF1701) fell back after a high jump this week, after a break of 15000 yuan / ton callback, looking for the support force of the 60 day average, which is expected to remain oscillatory in the short term, but at the same time, it faces resistance at the same time.

In summary, cotton prices are expected to face adjustment pressure in the short term and greater market risk.

The purchase price of seed cotton and the new annual sales price of the corps or the market trend in the future.

international

In the short term or maintain the trend of oscillation.

On the macro side, in October 14th, the figures released by the US Department of Commerce showed that retail sales in the US grew by 0.6% in September, up to expectations, reaching a 3 month high.

Meanwhile, the US PPI grew by 0.7% in September, up from 0.6%, the biggest increase since December 2014.

On the same day, University of Michigan released a report showing that the initial value of the US consumer confidence index of University of Michigan in October was 87.9, lower than expected and the final value in September, the lowest in September 2015.

In terms of fundamentals, USDA reports that on September 30, 2016 -10 6, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in September 30, 2016 was 51 thousand and 500 tons, an increase of 43% over the previous week, an increase of 55% over the previous four weeks, and 34 thousand and 500 tons of land cotton pport in 2016/17, a decrease of 28% over the previous week, a decrease of 6% over that of the previous four weeks.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 71.39 cents / pound, down 0.01 cents / pound compared with the previous week.

It is understood that the recent cotton prices in India fell slightly from the previous high.

However, India's domestic cotton yarn prices remain strong and there is no sign of downgrading.

Cotton prices in India S-6 fell 4% from three months ago, but still higher than 30% in the same period last year.

In addition, the government of Pakistan has introduced policies to stimulate textile exports, and the fall in cotton prices has stimulated textile enterprises' purchasing demand.

Cotton prices in Pakistan were relatively stable during the week.

Technically speaking, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) has risen strongly, breaking through the 70 US dollar / pound integer pressure level, supported by the 60 day average line in the near future, and is expected to have a larger probability of oscillation operation in the short run.