Why Does The Market Place Hope On The Arrival Of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong?

Although Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can hardly repeat the story of Shanghai and Hong Kong, it does not mean that there is nothing to expect from Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

On the one hand, as a theme, Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will still be hyped by the market.

Although there is no speculation among Hong Kong investors, they will be fry in the same way.

However, for this hype, the continuity will not be too long and there is not much room for speculation. As an investor, the speculation in the concept of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong must not be a war of love, but it should be done in a timely manner to withdraw from the concept of Shenzhen Hong Kong link in a timely manner.

On the other hand, from the time point of view, the launch time of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is basically the winter sowing time of the stock market, and the winter sowing is the time to prepare for the coming year, which makes it possible to link the Shenzhen Hong Kong market with the 2016 performance market and the two sessions of 2017.

Therefore, as an investor, we can combine the Shenzhen Hong Kong market with the winter market.

This is likely to yield better returns.

For example, some stocks are not only the concept of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, but also excellent performance.

Investing in such stocks is more likely to yield good returns.

In addition, the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong has also created conditions for investors to invest in Hong Kong stocks.

After all, in the Hong Kong Hong Kong shares of Hong Kong shares, a share of the Hang Seng integrated small stock index is added, which means that mainland investors can stir up small shares in Hongkong.

This is attractive for mainland investors accustomed to speculation in small cap stocks.

It is a normal thing for the market to hope for the arrival of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

On the one hand is based on the overall downturn this year.

Looking back at the history of the A share market in the past 20 years, there is still a trend in every downturn year.

But this year's stock market has so far no real eating quotes, the most can only be regarded as eating fast food market, eat two, you have to leave, if you do not hurry to leave, then that is not cooked rice, have to pay the bill.

It is precisely based on the market downturn, so investors do not want to let go of every good hope that the market can take this opportunity to go out of a round of eating quotes.

Of course, if it can be interpreted as a bull market, it is more desirable.

Therefore, in the face of the upcoming Shenzhen Hong Kong link, it is normal for the market to have high hopes. This also confirms the old saying "disappointing every year".

In fact, if there is no hope for the stock market, it is hard for investors to stay in the stock market.

On the other hand, the market hopes for the arrival of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, and is also based on the Shanghai and Hong Kong links.

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Shanghai and Hong Kong formally launched in November 17, 2014.

It not only pushed the stock market out of the rising market, but also triggered a bull market, or even a mad bull market.

Although the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong was launched in November 17th of that year.

But the Shanghai and Hong Kong Tong was approved in April 10th of that year.

From the end of June of that year, the stock market refused to go down and went out steadily. Until November 17th, after the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong's formal launch, the stock market began to go out of the bull market with a sharp rise under the cooperation of other policies.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2000 to 5178.19, or nearly 160%.

Although the stock market has entered the stock market crash since June 15, 2015, investors in Hong Kong and Shanghai haven't forgotten how to make money.

Now that Hong Kong and Shanghai can bring the money making effect and bring the bull market, the investors are certainly full of hope in the face of the arrival of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

Even if Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can not bring the bull market, it will be good to bring a round of eating quotas.

The possibility of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong to repeat Shanghai and Hong Kong links basically does not exist.

There are several reasons for this.

First and foremost, in terms of valuation, Shenzhen stock market is clearly not dominant.

Shanghai and Hong Kong have been able to open up a rising market or even a bull market. One of the most favorable factors is that the underlying stocks of Shanghai stock exchanges are mainly blue chips.

Although most stock valuations in the A share market are significantly higher, the valuation of blue chips is relatively low, especially the valuation of bank shares, even lower than the valuation of H-shares listed in Hongkong.

In July 24, 2014, the Hang Seng AH share premium index was only 88.72, which means that the price of A shares of A+ H-share companies is generally 11.28% lower than that of H-shares.

That is, A shares are cheaper than H-shares.

Therefore, in the hype of blue chips, the A share market had an advantage at that time.

But now that advantage is gone.

Although the Hong Kong stock market has risen significantly more than A shares this year, the Hang Seng AH share premium index still stands at 121.68, which means that A+H shares and A shares are 21.68% higher than H-shares.

More importantly, the Hong Kong and Shenzhen links

Corresponding to Shenzhen stock market, but Shenzhen stock market valuation is far higher than Hong Kong stocks.

As of October 18th, the average price earnings ratio of Shenzhen stock market reached 42.61 times; the price earnings ratio of small and medium sized boards reached 51.67 times, and the growth enterprise market reached 78.55 times.

Such a P / E ratio is nothing short of an Arabian tale for investors from overseas mature markets, especially for institutional investors.

It is difficult to attract funds into the Hongkong market for speculation in Shenzhen.

Even for domestic capital, this high price earnings ratio is hard to get too much room for speculation.

Not only that, Shanghai and Hong Kong can trigger a bull market, to a large extent, and the A share market has undergone a lot of adjustment.

After the big bear market in 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index fell from 6124 to 1664, or 72.83%, which far exceeded the 2015~2016 stock market crash.

The three wave of stock crash only dropped the Shanghai Composite Index from 5178 to 2638, the largest decrease of 49.05%, much less than that of the big bear market in 2008.

More importantly, from 2008 to 2014, the stock market has been adjusted for about 6 years.

In the 6 years of adjustment, the cut meat has also been cut, and the new leek has grown up, and the stock market is in a state of mind.

In the current market, the adjustment is less than a year, and the adjustment is obviously inadequate. The market is serious, and the new leek is not growing.

In this case, the stock market obviously lacks enough power.

Besides, a very important point is that

When it was launched, it was based on the years of adjustment of the stock market, so the management also hoped to serve the real economy by creating a bull market. All these aspects were positive for the artificial bull market at that time.

Coupled with the leverage of leverage at that time, the stock market even went out of the mad bull market.

At that time, the bull market was also known as "bull market" or "bull market", and to a large extent represented the will of management.

However, after the stock market crash last year, the management is very cautious about the trend of the market.

Not only are leverage funds strictly restricted, but management itself does not want to create an artificial bull market.

If the incumbent chairman of the securities and Futures Commission Liu Shiyu clearly stated that last year's bull market was a bubble, "how high the mountain is, how deep the valley is and how the bubble will blow up will be shattered."

So Liu Shiyu is clearly not going to blow up a bubble again.

In particular, with lessons learned from last year's stock market crash, at least the market side will take a cautious attitude towards building an artificial bull market again.

In fact, including investors themselves will be alert.

Moreover, Premier Li Keqiang also said in June this year that capital markets should prevent "blowout" and "cliff style" changes. Therefore, the stock market is unlikely to have an artificial bull market in recent years.

Therefore, Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong will not carry out the story of Shanghai and Hong Kong through.