Heavy Blockbuster Events In November, And Financial Markets Are Bound To Set Off Huge Waves.

According to the data released by the US Commerce Department on Friday, the US initial quarter of GDP increased by 2.9% in the three quarter, with an expected growth of 2.5% and a 1.4% increase in the previous quarter.

According to today's report, the US GDP growth rate in the three quarter was not only two times higher than that in the two quarter, but also the strongest growth since the three quarter of 2014.

The gold market has absorbed a lot of interest rate hikes, and the rate of moderate yield has little effect on the price of gold, and the dollar will not rise much higher.

At the same time,

The demand for physical gold is rising, supporting the formation of gold prices.

Since the third quarter of 2015, the US economy has never been more than 2% in the quarterly growth rate. It has been more weak in the past three quarters and has been below 1% for two times.

In the report, the commerce department pointed out that the strong economic growth in the three quarter was due to the huge contribution of inventory and exports, thereby offset the decline in consumer spending and investment.

Data also showed that in the third quarter, the initial value of the real personal consumption expenditure in the 2.1% quarter of the United States was 2.1%, and the former value was 4.3%; the initial value of the US PCE core price index in the third quarter was 1.7%, unchanged from the previous value.

After the release of the data, Reuters commented that the sharp increase in exports and the rebound in inventory investment offset the slowdown in consumer spending, helped the US GDP quarter rate outperform, and refreshed the highest in the third quarter of 2014, which will help dispel the worries that the market is stagnant in the US economy, and will also become a reason for the fed to raise interest rates in December.

However, the subsequent consumer confidence index was not satisfactory.

A report released on Friday showed that the US consumer confidence index of Michigan University in October hit the lowest since October 2014, and was lower than expected and the September final value.

The three quarter GDP data released today are beautiful and will further consolidate the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates during the year.

After the data was released, Bloomberg said the federal reserve fund interest rate futures show that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in December rose to around 85%.

The heaviest data this week - the US three quarter GDP report is coming out.

Data released on Friday (October 28th) showed that the US economy grew by 2.9% in the three quarter, much higher than expected and before.

Interest rates are expected to grow further during the year.

However, the consumer confidence index of University of Michigan subsequently dropped to a two-year low, indicating that consumers were not confident about the current economic situation and prospects of the United States before the election.

After today's data comes out, the global market is in a state of Turbulence: the US dollar index has gone down slightly, and the spot gold and silver have opened up a shock mode.

It is widely expected that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, suggesting that interest rates may be raised in December.

"Most importantly, this opens the door for the fed to raise interest rates.

They should be able to raise interest rates next week, but they will not act, "said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

Although the three quarter consumer spending dropped sharply to 2.1% from the strong growth in the two quarter, the GDP remained strong.

"This is a pretty good number.

The three quarter performance finally met the previous expectations, that is, growth of nearly 3%, "McCarthy said." spending slowed down.

So frankly speaking, it is encouraging to see that such a growth rate can be achieved in the quarter when the consumption expenditure is basically half. I think the three quarter will be the same.

The Fed will confirm the December rate hike, but it will not join the "next meeting" as at the end of October last year.

Hilsenrath pointed out: "first, last year, the market expected a low probability of raising interest rates in December. The Fed needs to guide market expectations and its consistency. Now the market has predicted that the Fed will have 78.5% chance of action in December. Secondly, the Fed has been avoiding specific actions for a specific period of time. The wording of the next meeting will run counter to the Federal Reserve's wishes. Third, if we use similar words again, investors will think that the central bank will make similar expressions before each action, which will tie the central bank's hands and feet."

Deutsche Bank foreign exchange strategist Alan Ruskin said that although the US third quarter GDP data was gratifying, it did not subvert the "rules of the game". First, the GDP data did not change the pressure on global bond yields to rise. Secondly, it did not change the fact that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December. It also could not have a great impact on the US general election, so overall, the data did not bring any crucial changes.

After the three quarter GDP data was released in the United States, the roller coaster market again appeared in the financial market.

The US dollar index edged up slightly to 98.91 (today's opening price), followed by a decline in volatility and a refreshing low to 98.59..

The US dollar / yen went higher, refreshed its three month high of 105.52, then rose to 105.04 near Japan's low, and the euro / dollar slipped to 1.0910 in the short term, finally rebounded and refreshed 8 to 1.0950.. After almost digesting the recent beautiful economic data in the United States and the expectation of the US alliance's interest rate rise in December, the upward trend of the US dollar is likely to stagnate.

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Next week, the market will usher in the Federal Reserve resolution, the US non farm data, and the subsequent US presidential election.

BMO strategist Ian Lyngen wrote in the report that the data had little impact.

A simple explanation is that it has been reflected in the price.

Since 2011, the US dollar has risen by 36% against other major currencies, but the recent rise is almost entirely affected by the decline in the pound, the euro and the yen.

Thomas Flury, head of wealth management foreign exchange strategy, which is in charge of the global $2 trillion, said it was time to consider whether the US dollar had reached the point of callback after such a big rise. The rebound seemed to be coming to an end.

Precious metals market: because of the beautiful GDP data in the three quarter, gold once dropped 6 US dollars in the short term, refreshing its four day low to 1262.09 US dollars / ounce, but then pulled up more than 10 US dollars in the short term, recovering all the declines in the day and recovering the 1270 us dollar integer pass, and then dropped about 7 US dollars to 1266 U.S. dollars / ounce in the short term.

Spot silver once fell to 17.53 U.S. dollars / ounce, followed by a short-term pull up nearly 1%, refresh the day's high point to 17.79 U.S. dollars / ounce, then fell again.

According to reports, the most active COMEX main force in December gold futures contract in Beijing time 20:30 minutes within 6093 minutes hand volume, and 770 million U.S. dollars of gold, a large number of sales to lower the spot gold price has dropped nearly $6.

In terms of technology, domestic demand is concerned about whether the US $1270 mark can be maintained. If we can keep that pass, the price of gold is expected to rise further next week, and we need to pay close attention to the resistance of US $1277 in October 5th.

George Gero, head of capital markets at Royal Bank of Canada, said that after the third quarter GDP data was released, investors were concerned that the strong GDP data would increase the probability of interest rate hike in December, so the first reflection was selling gold, but soon shifted attention to the growth of consumer prices. Some investors expected inflation to go up, so the purchase of precious metals was carried out, so that gold rapidly rose to 1270 dollars / ounce after falling to 1262 dollars / ounce.

Carsten Fritsch, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank, pointed out: "GDP data is not particularly strong, and the rise is small, and the contribution to GDP is not very strong.

The fact is, we now have a strong demand for physical gold, which may support the bottom of gold.