The Stalling Theory Of China'S Economy Has Been Self Destructive And The Key Data Are Better Than Expected.

In fact, compared with the economic growth rate itself, the changes in the current economic structural pformation and the conversion of the old and new kinetic energy data are obviously more meaningful for judging the medium and long term trend of China's economy.

Recently, the National Bureau of statistics released the national economic performance in the first three quarters of 2016.

After preliminary calculation, the GDP in the first three quarters was 529971 billion yuan, which increased by 6.7% over the same period.

In the quarter, the third quarter grew by 6.7%, which continued the good momentum of the previous two quarters.

Analysts generally believe that the current China's economy is not only overall stable, but also some key data reflecting economic trends, growth structure and quality of development are better than expected.

At the same time, these facts also imply that some stalling theories about China's "hard landing" and "recession" have been broken.

For young children, height growth may be the most intuitive criterion for judging their growth and development, but adults will gradually expand to more dimensions of cognition, thinking and emotion after adulthood.

In fact, it is the same for any economy to grow.

Despite the good performance of the Chinese economy under the new normal, some international institutions have been throwing out the argument that the Chinese economy is about to stall off this year. The Chinese economy is expected to slow sharply in the two quarter and subsequent quarters, and asserts that the driving force of China's economic growth is "only a matter of time".

But this time, the "stall theory" was again "hit the face".

The indicators of industrial electricity consumption, electricity generation and freight volume have significantly improved; the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.4% compared with the nominal growth rate; the actual growth rate of the per capita income of the national residents was higher than the per capita GDP growth rate; the growth rate of private investment was 0.4 percentage points faster than that of 1 - August; the number of new urban employment increased by 10 million 670 thousand, and the whole year was completed one quarter ahead of schedule.

...

In the latest answer to China's economy, not only GDP continues to grow at high speed, but also many key indicators are better than expected.

Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, said in an interview with our reporter that the performance of China's main economic data in the first three quarters of this year is encouraging and has made the argument of "stalling" and "hard landing" unfounded.

"Despite the fact that China's GDP grew by 6.7% in the three quarter of this year, we should not forget that the growth of China's economy is also increasing every quarter, so the growth base in the three quarter is actually larger than that in the one or two quarter, and the absolute increment is even more.

At the same time, the gold content of our economic growth is also higher than before.

Xu Hongcai emphasized.

And in the State Council SASAC Research Center Hu Chi and many other scholars seem to be in the world

Under the background of uncertainty and weak recovery, China's current macroeconomic performance is still very bright compared with other countries in the world. Maintaining 6.7% of GDP growth is commendable.

Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said that the current structural reform of the supply side has made positive progress, and the new kinetic energy is accelerating growth. Therefore, the foundation of "stability" has been strengthened.

Specifically, the first is "three go, one drop, one subsidy" to achieve tangible results.

For example, the raw coal output in the first three quarters decreased by 10.5% compared with the same period last year, and the area of commercial housing sold for the 7 consecutive month ended at the end of 9.

Two, the industrial structure will continue to escalate.

In the first three quarters, the added value of the service sector accounted for 1.6 percentage points of GDP, compared with the same period last year. The added value of high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry increased faster than that of industrial added value above scale.

Three, the demand structure continues to escalate.

Among them, the proportion of high-tech industry investment and service industry investment is increasing, while the proportion of high energy consuming industries is decreasing.

At a news conference in October 20th, the head of the Ministry of industry and commerce further said: in the first three quarters, the contribution rate of China's high-tech manufacturing added value to industrial growth reached over 20%. In the first 8 months, the output of industrial robots increased by 30% over the same period last year, and the output of solar cells and optoelectronic devices increased by more than 20%.

It is not difficult to see that this is similar to the seemingly slight changes in the "GDP energy consumption per unit year-on-year decline of 5.2%" and "the average number of newly registered enterprises 1.46 000".

Increasingly powerful.

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"Excess capacity has declined, real estate inventories have been reduced, business costs have been further reduced, and infrastructure investment has been replenished in time.

It can be said that the initial results of our supply side structural reforms have been reflected in macroeconomic data.

Xu Hongcai said that achieving results does not mean that there is no problem. In the future, all walks of life need to implement the reform measures of the central government conscientiously, and actively promote the capacity of high polluting and high energy consuming industries to achieve pformation and upgrading.

It is worth noting that with the introduction of various reform measures and the fact that Chinese economy has repeatedly used facts, "stall theory" has no market in and out of the sea, and there is more and more sound analysis and giving positive expectation to China's economy in the future.

In its report released in late September, the Asian Development Bank raised the expected value of China's economic growth in the next two years. The latest world economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month also lowered China's economic growth rate in the next two to 6.6% years while reducing the growth rate of the developed economies, while Bloomberg reported in its report that China's goal of achieving economic growth this year is "within reach".

Some Argentina scholars further pointed out that before the third quarter of GDP, some economists were worried that China's economy might continue to slow down, but the 6.7% increase undoubtedly hit back these questions.

"China's latest economic data have finally brought a glimmer of light to the world economy, which has recently been hit by bad news."

The scholar said.

Experts say that in the context of the world economic recovery is still weak and trade protectionism is rising, the Chinese economy will still face some external uncertainties in the future.

However, as long as we continue to firmly push forward all reform measures and actively foster new growth momentum, the Chinese economy will surely achieve a new round of strong growth and bring more opportunities to the world.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development have not changed. With the promotion of urbanization, industrialization, marketization and internationalization, the driving force of economic growth will also become stronger. Xu Hongcai predicts that the trend of China's macroeconomic policy will not change in the future. The fourth quarter growth rate of GDP is 6.6%, and next year's economic growth rate should not be less than 6.5%.