China'S Export Environment Is More Severe, And The Future Situation Is Extremely Unstable.

At present, the world economic and trade environment is more serious and complex, and the trend of economic downturn will not end in the short term. International financial turmoil, geopolitics, terrorism and other uncertainties, unstable factors and emergencies can happen at any time.

Faced with the signs that China's foreign trade is stabilizing and stabilizing, we must not be too optimistic. The task of achieving the goal of foreign trade for the whole year is still arduous and great efforts are needed.

In the first three quarters of this year, China

The import and export trade has stabilized in the first quarter. The import and export value, export value and import value decreased by 3.6%, 2.7% and 4.7% in the first half of the year respectively. The third quarter achieved double growth. Import and export value, export value and import value increased by 1.1%, 0.4% and 2.1% respectively, especially in August.

However, in September, the export value decreased by 5.6%, which was in sharp contrast with the increase of 5.8% in August. The import value increased by 2.2%, although it continued the growth trend in August, it still dwarfed the growth rate of 10.7%.

This turning point shows that the seasonal fluctuation of China's foreign trade is still relatively large, and the trend of continuous recovery is not yet stable.

One of the trends: from the perspective of internal factors, the traditional competitive advantage has further weakened, resulting in the continued contraction of some labor-intensive products exports.

Textile yarns and fabrics in 2015

The export value of labour intensive products, such as clothing accessories and shoes, has declined in different ranges, falling by 1.3%, 5.5% and 3.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of this year, the export value of clothing and accessories and shoes continued to decline 1.5% and 7.2%.

Although the export value of China's textile yarn and fabric has increased to 2.5% in the first three quarters, it seems gratifying, but we must be alert to the fact that the garment industry in the southeast coast of China is quietly pferring to Southeast Asian countries.

And the export growth of fabrics and the decline of clothing and accessories export may mean that the garment industry chain that has been highly competitive in China has already completed the pfer of the most expensive garment links, and the share of China's related products in the international market is being eaten up by Southeast Asian countries.

Once these Southeast Asian countries' garment matching industry is completed and put into operation, the entire textile industry of China will face a great threat.

In September this year, the export value of China's textile yarn and fabrics, clothing and accessories and shoes decreased by 16.7%, 8.5% and 13.4% respectively, the drop is far greater than the overall decline in China's export value of 5.6%.

At the same time, data show that in the first 7 months of this year, the share of labor intensive products in the United States dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the same period last year, and the share in Japan dropped by 1.7 percentage points. In the same period, the share of similar products of Southeast Asian countries in the United States and Japan increased by 0.7 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively.

Two of the trend: from the external factors, the shift of global industrial layout and changes in consumption habits have led to a continuous contraction in exports of some electronic products.

Take mobile phones as an example. Recently, information technology research and consulting firm Gartner predicted that the overall shipments of the global mobile phone market will decline by 1.6% in 2016, of which the smartphone market will grow by 4.5%, but the growth rate has slowed down considerably compared with the previous years.

India, the world's largest mobile phone consumer market besides China, has imposed a 12.5% tariff on imports of smart phone products since February 2015, but only 1% of its cargo tax is levied on its domestic assembly. This policy has led global mobile phone manufacturers to build factories in India to reduce production costs.

CounterpointResearch, a market consultancy, showed that in the two quarter of this year, the number of mobile phone brands made in India increased from 10 to 35, accounting for 70% of the total output of mobile phones in the two quarter.

Despite the impact of new brand phones such as apple in September this year, China's mobile phone exports increased by 0.7%, while its export value increased by 9.2%, achieving double positive growth. However, in the first three quarters, the value of mobile phone exports continued to decline, exports dropped by 1.5%, and export value dropped by 3.1%.

Three of the trend is still external cause, Global trade protectionism is rising, trade friction is aggravating, threatening the export of some products in China.

On the one hand, from the global perspective, from October 2015 to May 2016, only G20 group economies implemented 145 new trade restrictive measures, with an average of more than 20 new monthly measures.

On the other hand, as far as our country is concerned, the Ministry of commerce data show that in the first 8 months of this year, China experienced 20 trade relief surveys launched by 20 countries or regions, an increase of 49% over the previous year, and the amount involved was more than 10 billion dollars, up 94% over the same period last year.

And the implementation of these surveys, dragging the export of China's steel and other products.

In the first three quarters, the volume of China's steel exports increased by only 2.4%, which fell sharply compared with the 19.9% growth rate last year, and the export value dropped by 9.4%. In September, the export volume decreased by 21.8% and the export value dropped 11.9%.

According to the author's preliminary estimate, the total export value of the above products in the first three quarters exceeded 1/4 of the total value of China's exports in the same period, and its export value declined to 55% in the first three quarters of the total decline in China's export value.