The Relaxation Of Monetary Policy Is A Catalyst For Stimulating Market Growth.

Last month, China's foreign trade data were expected to be down to $1.9% in the month and 10% in exports, which is the largest since February of this year.

Imports and exports were expected to rise by 0.6% and 2.3% respectively.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's imports and exports fell by 8.2% and 7.5% respectively.

Huang Songping, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs of China, said frankly that the recovery of the world economy is weak this year, and the specific impact of exchange rate changes on China's imports and exports is relatively limited. There are still many uncertainties in the development of foreign trade.

In terms of Renminbi, imports rose by 2.2% and exports fell by 5.6% last month.

In the first three quarters of this year, China's imports and exports fell by 2.3% and 1.6% respectively.

Huang Songping told the news conference of the new China office that although the external environment is showing signs of improvement and the confidence of export enterprises has been enhanced, it can not be taken lightly. Global demand is still weak. The growth of foreign trade is negatively affected by changes in the pattern of international trade and trade protectionism.

Imports to Hong Kong fell by 3.2%

Shi Dalong, a researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, analyzed the sharp decline in China's exports last month, which is mainly affected by the weak external demand and greater export pressure.

Due to the influence of Britain's withdrawal from Europe, the US general election, the banking crisis in Germany and Italy, the growth rate of China's semi exports to major trade groups fell almost all the way last month.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank and Huafu securities, pointed out that the need for export reduction was less than that of last month. It was largely disturbed by the special events of the month, especially in Zhejiang province.

Exports of shoes and other products have declined.

Liu Liu, an analyst at CICC, also believes that some short-term factors in the month also pose a disturbance to exports.

As for the decline in import growth, Yao Shaohua, senior economist at Hang Seng Bank, believes that it is related to the high base number in the same period last year, but the import volume this month is the highest this year, reflecting the bulk.

The price has risen sharply, and thanks to the stability of the economy, China has increased its import demand for commodities.

Data also showed that the mainland's imports from Hongkong fell 3.2% year-on-year, the first negative growth in a year.

JulianEvansPritchard, a macro Chinese economist at Kay investment, believes that this reflects the recent intensified administrative measures against cross-border RMB movements, and the narrowing of the offshore offshore renminbi price differentials, limiting the opportunities for arbitrage of RMB.

Although the RMB exchange rate has depreciated slightly in September, Huang Songping pointed out that the specific impact on China's imports and exports is relatively limited. At present, the foundation for supporting the continued rebound in foreign trade is not solid enough, and the difficulties it faces are not short-term.

However, China's foreign trade export index continued to pick up last month and recorded 35.8, indicating that China's export pressure is expected to ease this quarter.

Huang Songping also revealed that according to the survey data of nearly 3000 foreign export enterprises, the export managers' index in China in the three quarter was 36.9, 38.7 and 39.9 respectively, increasing month by month, which indicates that the latter export is expected to improve.

Surplus drop is expected to rise.

Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Center, expects that the export growth rate will be warmer in the year, and the export growth rate will increase in a certain month.

In addition, China's import growth this year is better than last year, but it will continue to grow at a low speed throughout the year.

Yao Shaohua estimated that China's exports or return to growth in US dollar denominated dollars in the next few months will remain unchanged despite 5% of China's negative growth this year and 6% of the negative growth of imports.

In addition, the surplus fell 10 billion US dollars to 41 billion 989 million US dollars in the previous month, and 396 billion 357 million US dollars in the first three quarters of this year.

The sharp drop in the surplus has also increased the pressure on RMB depreciation.

Following the monetary policy, Hu Yuexiao, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shanghai securities, pointed out that China's foreign exchange reserves will continue to slow down as the trade surplus decreases, plus the deficit in capital and finance. In order to maintain the stability of China's monetary growth, the pressure to drop the benchmark will go up further, and the possibility of hedging will still remain in the year.