China Will Continue To Adhere To A Prudent Monetary Policy.

The fall of the RMB against the US dollar, the rise of Shanghai interbank offered rate, and the central bank's research on strengthening the risk management of off balance sheet business... Recently, a series of recent changes in the money market have attracted wide attention, and there is no lack of speculation that China's monetary policy is likely to turn. Therefore, although monetary policy will take account of the latest developments in the future, stability is still China. monetary policy Main base harmonic key words.

　　 Service reform is effective

It is worth noting that despite the fact that capital has been aggravated in some areas, the monetary policy has not failed to guide the reform of capital services and promote economic transformation. According to the central bank data, as at the end of 2016, the loan balance of non-financial enterprises and agency groups increased by 8.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the end of last month. The loan balance of RMB small and micro enterprises was 19.92 yuan trillion yuan, up 15.9% over the same period last year, which is 6.8 and 9.9 percentage points higher than that of large and medium-sized enterprises in the same period.

At the same time, monetary policy has continued to be stable and has been supported by many scholars. Ma Jun, chief economist of the people's Bank of China Research Bureau, pointed out that the current monetary policy is moderate, and that the change in real estate prices will affect financial stability to a certain extent. Therefore, monetary policy must consider the impact of real estate prices. Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of development of the State Council, said that as China's economy basically bottomed out, there is little need for future monetary policy to be slanted. Next, fiscal policy should play a bigger role and better cooperate with monetary policy.

Experts point out that Steady growth Although the adjustment structure may show some restraint in the short term, the two are fundamentally complementary: steady growth provides a stable environment for structural adjustment, while structural adjustment is aimed at promoting long-term economic growth, while supply side structural reform is precisely the key to promoting this virtuous cycle. The essence of financial activities is the optimal allocation process of capital elements, but at the same time, it will also bring financial risks. Taking stability as the key word of monetary policy is to manage this risk so as to better serve the structural reform of supply side. Zhao Xijun said.

　　 Exchange rate fluctuations are not large.

Zhao Xijun, vice president of the school of Finance and finance, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with our newspaper reporter that from the positioning point of view, "maintaining price stability" and "promoting economic growth" are the two core functions of the central bank's monetary policy. At present, China's economy is in the period of structural adjustment and new and old power conversion. "Stabilizing employment", "ensuring the balance of international payments", "supporting small and micro enterprises" and "promoting precision poverty alleviation" have become an important objective of monetary policy at the moment.

"In fact, the impact of new phenomena, new problems and new changes on monetary policy objectives in economic operation is not easy to be accurately detected. Many changes can only be made to a certain extent to make the trend obvious. Therefore, on the one hand, monetary policymakers should consider all kinds of factors, and on the other hand, they will make decisions on the basis of the overall situation of ensuring the realization of important goals. Zhao Xijun said that the latest changes in the foreign exchange market and property market will attract the attention of the central bank, and may even promote its use of liquidity tools, market intervention and other means of regulation, but it is not enough to shake the main tone of monetary policy stability.

For example, for the recent Renminbi exchange rate The fluctuation of the volatility, the Yi governor of the people's Bank of China, pointed out that the exchange rate elasticity of RMB against the US dollar was further enhanced, and the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies remained basically stable. The volatility was less than the vast majority of reserve currencies, much less than that of emerging market economies. In fact, the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and there is no basis for sustained depreciation. In the future, China will continue to adhere to a prudent monetary policy and create a moderate and favorable monetary and financial environment for the structural reform of supply side.

　　 We must strictly guard against "going from reality to virtual".

Every policy should pay attention to an effect, while monetary policy itself has special features that can not be ignored. There is an image metaphor in Economics: "people can lead a horse to a river, but they can not force it to drink water." In the past, China's economic growth rate was very high, and funds invested in all walks of life had a good profit. Now, when the economy enters the new and old power conversion period, the overall return rate of investment is decreasing, and the scarcity of capital is no longer prominent. In this context, capital is easy to "get rid of the real to the virtual", and further affect the realization of monetary policy objectives.

Hongqi, chairman of China Minsheng Bank, believes that serving the real economy is the essential requirement of finance. In the past two years, China's capital has been aggravated by the fact that the capital has gone from real to virtual. The increase of capital in the financial sector has pushed up the cost of capital, intensified the asset bubble and accumulated systemic risk, which is neither conducive to the real economy nor to the healthy development of finance. Therefore, it is very important to strictly guard against the fact that funds are "real to the real", which is also related to the smooth transformation of our economy.

In terms of specific operation, Hongqi gave four suggestions: first, to push forward the reform of financial supply side. We should increase financial supply, cultivate a transparent and healthy multi-level capital market system, increase the proportion of direct financing, and enrich the financing channels for enterprises. Two is to reform and improve the financial supervision system. From institutional supervision to functional regulation, the pilot of comprehensive operation of financial institutions can be expanded in the short term to encourage innovation in products and services such as investment and loan linkage and debt to equity swap. The three is to highlight key areas of service. The regulatory policies of the regulatory departments and banks should be directed towards the technological development and ecological environmental protection of resource conservation. Meanwhile, the banking institutions themselves should avoid excessive speculation, and adopt the characteristic management strategy according to their actual conditions. The four is to seize the opportunities for scientific and technological progress. At present, the new round of industrial revolution accelerates growth. The financial industry should adapt to the characteristics of high risk, high yield and long cycle in the science and technology innovation industry, and guide the capital to flow into these industries.

With the continuous development of the economy, the boundary between the entity and the virtual part of the economy is becoming more and more blurred. There is a new normal in reality. Take the real estate industry as an example, the traditional concept is that the buildings that can be operated or lived on the ground belong to the real economy category, but if the capital is overflowing and hyped, then the real estate will obviously have the taste of more fictitious economy. These are the need for monetary policy researchers and policymakers to keep thinking and exploring. Zhao Xijun said.