The Shanghai Composite Index Has Been Hit By A Sharp Fall Of 3140 Points.

Within the 20% magnitude of this year, the super low volatility market may be faced with a change of market. How will the future volatility evolve?

First, bad profits have been more adequate by Price in.

Second, there are new bright spots in the market.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is accelerating, and China Unicom is a typical symbol, and the three quarterly bulletin of small and medium-sized enterprises is good.

The 3140 point is the breakdown probability, the market will widen the amplitude upward, the middle term is still the shock accumulation pattern, the market trend will take time.

Last week, when the B-share crash and the RMB accelerated depreciation, the Shanghai composite index did not fall or rise by 0.9%.

After a week of real estate regulation and exchange rate depreciation, it did not prevent the index from rising, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Composite Index.

All of them rose by 2%.

1, the market has carried the wind and rain, the amplitude will widen upward.

After the festival, the market trend proved to have been carrying the wind and rain.

Last Monday, the B-share crash dropped the A share by 0.7%, but it rebounded strongly by 1.4% on Tuesday. In addition, the yuan accelerated its depreciation last week, especially from the 6.478 to 6.766 against the RMB exchange rate on Friday. The Shanghai composite index did not fall or rise 0.9% last week under the multiple negative factors.

Since October, the market has been losing money, such as tightening real estate control, raising the probability of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and devaluing the renminbi. The market has not gone up and down, which shows that the market consolidation has already turned these bad Price in into account. It can be analogous to the market in mid and late 5 this year.

In October 21st, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of housing prices. In order to quickly reflect the recent changes in the real estate market, the National Bureau of statistics was doing a good job in the statistics of 70 large and medium cities in September. At the same time, the real estate market situation of 15 first tier and second tier hot cities in the first half of October was statistically analyzed.

Compared with September, the price index of new commercial housing in these cities has been reduced in the first half of October. This shows that the local housing prices have been significantly curbed due to the local policies and the effective adjustment of the policies.

It can be deduced that the real estate regulation and control policy will not be more severe in the short term, and there is no need to worry about this bad profit.

We do not need to worry about the depreciation of the RMB. The background of this depreciation is different from that in the first 15 years of August and the beginning of 15 in early 16.

Taking history as a mirror, the amplitude will widen up.

Compared with foreign countries, the amplitude of A shares is higher.

The average annual amplitude of the S & P 500 index has been 28% since 1928. The average annual amplitude of the FTSE 100 index is 25% in 1984 and the average amplitude in 1970 to 225 is 31% today. The average annual amplitude of the index is 76% in 1991.

In the past 97 years, the annual amplitude of the Shanghai Composite Index has been mostly between 25%-40%. Only in Daniel or bear market, the amplitude will increase to more than 60%, with an annual average amplitude of 53%, while this year's amplitude is only 25%, less than half of the annual average amplitude in the past 20 years.

If we only look at the amplitude of the shock market, the amplitude of the 4 round shock stage (1997/5-1999/5, 2002/1-2004/11, 2009/8-2011/4, 2012/1-2014/7) is 31%, 39%, 33% and 28% respectively, and the amplitude of the shock market is only 19%, or 33% of the historical average of the shock market since January 2638 points.

Looking back on history, there were two similar narrow oscillations, namely, 12 years, 1-8 months and 13 years in June -14 July.

The depreciation stems from a stronger dollar and a relatively strong Renminbi.

In October 21st, the US dollar fell to 6.75 against the central parity of RMB, and once again refreshed its lowest level in 6 years. After the "eleven", the renminbi depreciated 1.2% against the US dollar.

This worries investors. Will 15 years August and 16 January be repeated? Careful analysis, this devaluation is different from before, mainly from the strength of the US dollar. Since October, the US dollar index has risen 3.3%. The pound, euro, Japanese yen, Mexico pesos, Brazil Real and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar have all depreciated 5.8%, 3.2%, 2.8%, 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. The renminbi is the smallest currency with the lowest depreciation rate, and the RMB exchange rate index has remained stable relative to other major international currencies such as the euro, the pound, the yen and so on.

Exchange rate is related to stock market, but it is not a direct causality. The core is to see the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on interest rate and capital side, and interest rate is the variable that directly affects stock market.

In August, the end of 15, at the beginning of 16, when the RMB depreciated, A shares fell sharply, because the two devaluation had outflow of funds, and foreign exchange reserves had been greatly reduced.

In the 16 years and 5-6 months, the depreciation of RMB A shares did not fall, because the US dollar continued to strengthen before and after the referendum in Britain, except for the US dollar, the other main currencies were weaker, and foreign exchange reserves did not decrease significantly.

The background of depreciation is more similar to that of June, which is in the strong period of the US dollar.

Moreover, the RMB forward exchange rate was not accelerated this time. The implied depreciation rate of RMB in the 1 year NDF remained at 2.5-3%, while the 15 time in August, the end of 15 and the beginning of 16 two times rapidly expanded to 5%.

New bright spots have emerged in the market.

The market has been rising since October, although the real estate chain has been affected by regulation and control, the market has gradually emerged new bright spots.

The implementation of China Unicom's mixed reform plan will have a strong demonstration effect on other central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises.

In addition, the three quarterly bulletin of SME board and gem is helpful to some growth stocks.

According to the estimates, the net profit of the three quarterly reports of small and medium sized boards and gem was 41%, 46% and 13%, 50% respectively.

According to the seasonal distribution of profits, the net profit of small and medium sized boards and gem has been 45% and 50% over the same period of 16 years.

3, coping strategies: maintain a positive attitude.

The market will expand and remain positive.

In the long run, A shares remain strategically optimistic. At present, the stock allocation of mainland residents is only 3%, and the real estate allocation is as high as 65%, compared with the United States, China, Taiwan and Germany.

Horizontal comparison A shares are not expensive. At present, A shares account for 76% of GDP's value, the global average is 92%, and the US is 131%.

Under the background of real estate regulation, asset allocation of large groups has turned to the stock market.

In the medium term, at the end of January, when A shares bottomed out, we have been emphasizing from 5178 to 2638, the unilateral fall has ended, and at the end of January, it has entered the shock market, and digested the value through time, similar to 94-96, 02-04 and 12-13 years.

In the medium term pattern, which is still in the midst of a concussion, the bottom has been gradually raised from the end of January to 2800 at the end of May, and the amplitude has been narrowed. The amplitude has been 20% since the end of January, and the amplitude has only been 11% since the end of May, and the amplitude has only been 5% since the end of July. The amplitude is only 11% since the end of May.

In the past 20% years, the amplitude was the longest in 8 months, and the longest in 25% months was 12 months.

After the emergence of real estate regulation and devaluation, the market did not fall or rise, indicating that the negative factor has been Price in. With the positive factors such as the reform of state-owned enterprises fermented, the market has a higher probability of breakthroughs in the short term.

The late December closely followed the US Federal Reserve interest conference, focusing on whether the meeting was a dove or hawk.

With real growth and national change as spears, consumption is the shield.

After the first half year's slump, the growth stocks began to appear some companies with better valuation and profit matching. We listed the performance companies based on TMT, high-end equipment, medicine and other high growth industry researchers. The partial white horse growth stocks were 36.3 times the current PE (total market value weighted), 16 years forecast PE (total market value weighted) 33 times, and 17 years forecast PE (total market value weighted) 25.3 times.

The reform of state-owned enterprises is constantly accelerating, focusing on Shanghai's reform.

On October 18th, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a meeting to revitalize the old industrial bases such as northeast China, and put forward the plan to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises in Northeast China.

20, the China Securities Journal issued a document that "state owned investment and operation company set up speed increase. At present, the pilot central enterprises such as the National Investment Corporation and China Communications Group are making clear the path of reform."