With The Advent Of New Cotton Season Pressure May Appear.

In the last month's report, we mentioned that the market continued to adjust after the formation of the head and shoulders, and at that time it was thought that if the target fell below 13300, the target might be in the 12500 area.

As a matter of fact, the disk is somewhat lower than we think. Zheng cotton fell to 13300, and the platform period began to pick up. Especially after lifting 14300, we think that there will be further rebound, the target 15300, and the adjustment trend will change to the shock pattern.

The theme of basic support lies in the rebound of reserve price and the high price of new cotton, which constitutes a certain support for the market.

However, the recovery of the market is still subject to seasonal suppression of the concentrated cotton market.

This month cotton fell to the platform support area of 13300 months in April -6, and then rebounded, breaking through the previous neckline in September 19th, continuing to attack the 15300 pressure level, but the breakthrough 15300 pressure level kinetic energy is still lacking. With the advent of new cotton, the seasonal pressure may appear. Before the break is high, it is expected that there will still be a fall, and the 14300 supporting areas will be underneath.

The main themes of the prophase market are: 1. At the domestic level, the mentality of the main body is different.

Prudence in buying and selling, so that the late filming enthusiasm again, volume and price rise, the market driven.

2, the new cotton market is expected to be higher.

3, at the foreign level, exports are strong.

Follow up potential shortcoming: 1, seasonal pressure on the new cotton market and domestic and foreign cotton market; 2.

After May, the main source of supply in the cotton market is the national reserve. During the period, the auction of the state reserve can be regarded as the main force affecting the market.

In May 3rd, cotton throwing and storage started. In the initial stage, due to the slow speed of the resource check, the turnover was high, which resulted in a high turnover rate, maintained at around 100%, and the price was also rising. It once reached 16392 yuan / ton and brought positive feedback to the market.

After entering the middle of July, with the increase in the level of dumping and storage to 30 thousand tons / day, the turnover rate and the paction price all fell down. The turnover rate dropped to 50-60% level, and the paction price dropped to 14000 yuan / ton, which was also a drag on the market.

Entering the September, the price of new cotton opened high and the listing was slow, prompting the cotton textile enterprises to once again focus on the national reserve, pushing the volume price to rise again, the recent turnover rose to nearly 100%, and the paction price also touched 15700 areas, thus driving the futures market.

With the end of dumping and storage, the impact of dumping and storage on the market has gradually weakened, mainly affecting the theme of new cotton inside and outside.

The green and yellow pition period, in addition to the storage of cotton, the market gradually began to pay attention to the new cotton scale.

At the present stage, seed cotton is gradually coming into the market. The price of seed cotton remains high in Xinjiang, and prices continue to rise in some areas. However, due to cost considerations, the cotton ginning companies have rushed to harvest and the processing is in full swing.

At present, the price of seed cotton purchased in Xinjiang is generally around 6.5-7.5 yuan / kg, and the cost of folding cotton is more than 14500-16500 yuan / ton.

The trend of new cotton opening is a positive guide to the market.

The sale of new cotton in the mainland market is also one price per day.

Early stage

Relatively strong exports to the market once supported.

According to the US Department of agriculture's weekly export sales report of the US Department of agriculture, in the week of September 22nd, the United States sold net 5 million cotton for 2016/17 cotton, an increase of 61.8% over the same period last year.

Shipment of 1 million 340 thousand packages increased by 59.5% over the same period last year.

Since August this year, US cotton exports have been very strong year-on-year.

The main braking force comes from Pakistan, China and Vietnam.

Reasons: 1. the positive use of cotton quotas before listing in China.

2. cotton production in Pakistan is seriously reduced, while cotton prices in India are on the high side.

The US cotton exports strongly consume part of the pressure of the stock rebound caused by the recovery of planting area in the US cotton market, making the market relatively resistant.

However, the recent slowdown in US cotton exports has been insufficient.

Recent data show that as of September 22nd, the US cotton export net sales of 90 thousand tons, down 53.8% over the same period last year.

After the collapse of the prophase factors supporting the US cotton market, there may be some weaker space for the market.

At present, for the Sino US cotton boll opening period, the weather conditions affect the supply expectation, and then affect the trend of the disk.

At present, textile enterprises are mainly state-owned cotton stores, and new cotton trade is not enough. The market is also afraid to be too restless. It is expected that the price will be higher and lower in the short term, and the price is expected to be significantly separated from the lint cost area.

Current US

The boll opening rate was 63%, ending in late October, and the weather during the boll opening period still had an impact on crops, especially in low temperature and rainy weather.

Judging from the weather, tropical cyclone "Hermine" landed in northern Florida in the early September. The southeast cotton area was affected by more precipitation, unfavorable to boll opening, and thus promoting the disk. However, the impact was obviously reduced.

According to the latest weekly growth report of the US Department of agriculture, by the year September 26th, the excellent and good rate of US cotton growth was 48%, which was 2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

The normal growth rate was 84%, which was basically the same as the same period in previous years, and 2 percentage points higher than before.

The growth of cotton is generally acceptable and has been better than expected.

The following weather is expected to be dry in the US cotton producing area, which is conducive to cotton bolting and picking, and the market speculation is insufficient. This year, the expected recovery of cotton yield caused by the increase in planting area is expected to respond on the disk, and the market still has stage pressure.

In September, the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report showed that the 2016/17 cotton planting area, yield per unit area and output were expected to rise over the same period last year.

The planting area is expected to be 10 million 150 thousand acres, down 18.3% from the same period last year, and the yield per unit area is 802 pounds / acre, an increase of 4.7% compared with the same period last year. The output is estimated to be 16 million 140 thousand bags, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year.

This shows that the US cotton production increase is expected to be relatively strong, and the market as a whole is still under pressure. Especially at present, the market pressure is obvious under the conditions of good weather, picking up and lack of kinetic energy.