Australian Cotton Production Can Reach 875 Thousand Tons In 2016/17.

Australia cotton is superior to US cotton, Brazil cotton, West African cotton and black cotton and so on. It is the first choice for Chinese spinning enterprises to spin high count yarn and combed yarn with cotton. But I am afraid it will not be the same as 2014/15 and 2015/16. Cotton ginning factories and cotton enterprises can be confident but not too optimistic. According to the Australian Bureau of agricultural resources and economic statistics, Australia's cotton output can reach 875 thousand tons in 2016/17, 50% higher than that in 2015/16 and 75% to 475 thousand hectares (7 million 125 thousand acres) in planting area.

Some Australian cotton ginning mills and cotton merchants believe that although a few cotton fields suffer from short-term rainfall and drought, they have little impact on the overall cotton yield, and the total production is expected to reach 85-90 tons.

Some institutions and international cotton traders said that the quality of the new cotton feedback was good, the Australian cotton base price had dropped to 1400-1500 points, and the C/ASM price difference narrowed to 2 cents / lb. and besides China, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries had already formed the demand market. Therefore, the export situation of Australia cotton in 2016/17 is promising, and it is expected to be sold out before July next year.

First,

Demand or continued failure.

First, the output of Chinese high count combed yarn and high count combed yarn continued to rise in 2015 and 2016, but the export and domestic demand situation was very weak. The consumption of high and high added value yarn was too low, while the demand for medium and low count yarn was getting warmer.

In 2016 many domestic cotton mill products went downhill. The proportion of C21, C32, C40 and JC32 yarn increased significantly, while the output of cotton yarn above 40S declined. Secondly, as of September, in 2016, China imported 654 thousand and 200 tons of cotton, and estimated that the import quota of cotton would be 55-58 tons in 2016 1%, and the quota would be about 32-35 tons.

According to the USDA report, the volume of contract signed by Chinese buyers for the US cotton in 2016/17 increased significantly in 9 and October. Once again, the 2016/17 of Xinjiang's machine picked cotton increased significantly over the previous two years in terms of length, horse value and fracture strength. The double 29/ double 30 cotton was more common, and the impact on Australia cotton and American cotton increased. Finally, it was concerned about the continued depreciation of the RMB and the rising cost of imported cotton.

Two.

Or become a stumbling block for cotton and cotton exports.

It is understood that since the end of October, the domestic factory price of S-6 and J34 in India is 73.10-73.20 cents / lb, 71.10-71.30 cents / lb, which is 6-7 cents lower than the new cotton quotation in the middle and October of the same month. The same time as the sailing date for the 12/1 month, the India cotton S-6SM in the Far East port is quoted at 75.50-76 cents / pound, while the C/ASM and EMOTSM quotations are 81.70-81.80 cents / pounds, 79.20-79.30 cents / pounds, and the monthly sailing date of Australia cotton is quoted at 8-10 cents / pound, which is higher than that in the same period of shipment.

The key is market demand, consumption is still mainly cotton yarn with C40S and above (about 80% or more), and high quality and high price of Australian cotton is really a waste.

Three, Vietnam's demand has not reached the climates, and cotton bonded business has hardly developed.

Looking from the flow direction, the buyers of Australia cotton in recent two years are mainly Chinese enterprises who invest and run factories in Vietnam.

It is required that the cotton or ginning factory should ship the goods on delivery, and the goods will go to the port to clear the Customs at once. The Vietnam bonded area is basically a display.

In addition to several large factories in Vietnam, the number of small factories below 20 thousand spindles accounts for more than 90%, and yarn products are mainly 40S or 32S and below.

With Vietnam joining the TPP, the yarn will be mainly digested by the domestic weaving factories and garment factories (the principle of origin). The export heat potential of cotton yarn is very uncertain, and the demand for high priced cotton and high quality cotton yarn is not optimistic.