Trump Was Hit By Roller Coaster When He Was Elected Venture Capital.

Election to

It brings huge impact, but after this uncertainty, there are still many uncertainties abroad.

The result of the election results in the December Federal Reserve's rate hike is expected to decline, increasing uncertainty.

Moreover, there is also a referendum on Italy's constitutional amendment in December 4th, and the process of Britain's withdrawal from Europe may continue to spiral. Next year, there will be a general election in Germany and France.

In addition, whether the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the Central Bank of Japan can be further QE or negative interest rate, the market also has great doubts.

The Trump campaign said that it would be a discount for the presidency, but it was important for the marginal change to assume that Trump's post presidential policy would be inclined to his campaign remarks.

The greater impact on China may be capital flows, exports and peripheral politics.

American election and Britain

The process is exactly the same. When the market expected Hilary to win nearly 90% last night, there was a big reversal. Trump not only won the votes of the swing states such as Florida, but also seized large states such as Michigan in the stronghold of Hilary (the election was elected by the electoral college, and the president was elected by the electoral college in December 19th, but the result is not different from that of the Electoral College).

At the same time, the election of the Senate and the house of Representatives basically ended with the victory of the Republican Party.

As the result of the vote becomes clearer, the risk aversion in the global market has risen sharply, the risk assets have fallen sharply, the S & P index has hit a fuse, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bonds has fallen by 15bp, and the US dollar index has dropped by 2%.

According to past experience of the US general election, the promises and actual actions of the election period are not necessarily the same. Moreover, the three powers of the United States are clearly separated and the president's power is limited. Trump needs to observe how much he can truly push forward with his unique words and deeds.

1)

China may play a role as a safe haven.

During the campaign of Trump, there was a lot of rhetoric, which made the uncertainty of American policy rise.

This rise in uncertainty may have an impact on the market's risk appetite in the short term, which may also affect China.

For example, the relationship between the Democratic Party and the technology companies is very good, such as GOOGLE, so Trump's coming to power may have an impact on this type of company, which may also be pmitted to China in a short time, which will affect the domestic view of such companies.

But in the medium and long term, the rise of uncertainty in the United States may lead to partial outflow of the United States, which is beneficial to China. If China can stabilize the domestic financial market, there may be some inflow of funds, and China will play a role as a safe haven.

2) may be unfavorable for China's exports.

Trump may be more pragmatic in dealing with foreign trade. For example, he mentioned in his campaign that he wanted to withdraw from the TPP, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, and make China a foreign exchange manipulator. It shows that he may increase the import substitution of domestic production by increasing trade barriers, and may adopt a more pragmatic approach to improve the foreign trade of the United States.

This may affect China's exports, and if some other countries follow suit, especially in the context of "sub pie" conflicts, they will cause China's exports to deteriorate.

3) politically, it may be beneficial to China's "one way, one belt" strategy.

Politically speaking, Trump has been shrinking in Asia, and China has been seeking political power for a long time, especially in Asia.

If Trump's political and military strategy in Asia shrinks, China will gain further political power in Asia.

Moreover, the strategy of "one belt and one road" promoted by China is likely to be more successful.

Furthermore, the "one belt and one way" is also conducive to China's economic growth and China's export in these surrounding areas.

The election process in the United States is wonderful, and Trump is a wonderful candidate in the presidential election. In the past presidential election, Trump may not have much chance, but in this election, Trump went all the way to the end.

We believe that there are two important driving factors behind this: one is the widening gap between the rich and the poor, which is the malpractice brought by the QE's big drainage.

QE significantly promoted the rise of asset prices, while the stimulus to the economy was limited. The general public benefited little from QE, while those with large holdings of assets obviously benefited, and the gap between the rich and the poor widened significantly.

On the other hand, under the background of global lack of demand, the contradiction between "biscuits" is even more serious.

If the global economy is booming, everyone will get the benefits of "big pie".

But in the context of lack of demand, xenophobia will continue to grow.

These two factors have led to a growing sense of discontent among the general public. In this election, it is obvious that Trump, a radical observer, has won a high support rate and is heading for victory.