Such A Big Economy In China Cannot Rely On External Demand To Boost The Economy.

China's export growth is consistently higher than that of GDP growth. It is impossible for China to realize that economic growth must rely on domestic demand, and domestic demand can not be driven solely by investment. Therefore, policies and reforms to promote consumption have attracted more and more attention, such as tax policy on Residents' income and major consumer goods.

With regard to the adjustment of interest rates, the specific time point is still unpredictable. It depends on the implementation of various reforms and other policies in China.

Liang Hong, chief economist of CICC, said at the CICC's 2017 macro strategy media conference that the actual GDP growth rate was 6.7% in 2016, and the actual GDP growth forecast in 2017 was adjusted from 6.7% to 6.6%.

At the same time, she predicts that nominal GDP growth will grow from 8.3% in 2016 to 8.3% in 2017.

At the meeting, CICC released a macroeconomic report on China's "macroeconomic growth is generally stable, and the structure is more balanced." 2017 macroeconomic outlook, Liang Hong said, the above prediction is slightly higher than the market consensus.

The market forecasts that the actual GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 is 6.6% and 6.3% respectively.

According to the report, China in 2016

Continuation of the downward trend since 2010, in response to the growth pressure, in the first half of 2016, China's credit, real estate and infrastructure adjustment policy temporarily stabilized growth, but with the housing prices rose.

The regulation aimed at stabilizing housing prices came out at the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may lead to some pressure on China's growth in 2017.

Liang Hong pointed out that from the perspective of aggregate demand, the contribution of consumption to the overall GDP will increase significantly in 2017, and the growth rate of real fixed assets investment may decline slightly, and the external demand is expected to stabilize.

The report also shows that 2017 of CPI is expected to be around 1.7% in the whole year, and the trend is more stable. PPI will rise further from 1.9% in 2016 to 1.9%.

As a result, the GDP deflator may increase from 1.1% in 2016 to 1.6% in 2017.

In terms of macroeconomic policy, Liang said that monetary policy may not have room for relaxation in the short term, because real interest rates have dropped significantly after economic re inflation, especially housing prices.

The report points out that since 2015, money and

The cumulative effect is enough to keep the economy relatively stable in the short term.

On the other hand, the trend of short-term inflation does not support monetary policy easing.

On fiscal policy, Liang Hong believes that fiscal policy in 2017 will still play a major role in steady growth, but the policy portfolio may focus more on boosting consumption demand than investment spending.

Fiscal policy is expected to promote residents' income and consumption growth from two aspects of tax reduction and increase subsidies, and increase public expenditure on education, health care and poverty alleviation.

In addition, the report also predicts that the scope of generalized fiscal stimulus will cover more PPP next year.

This means that commercial banks may increase financing to support broad fiscal easing.

After the meeting, Liang Hong answered the reporters' questions about the relationship between house price and exchange rate. She thought that only one of the conclusions was not valid.

And whether there is a shortage of assets at present, she says the reason is "shortage" because the so-called high yield and low risk assets do not exist after breaking the rigid payment, and the high yield before is not sustainable.

She suggested that investors should quickly reduce their psychological expectations of investment return, and asset allocation should be long and dispersed.

In addition, she said that many data in China now have serious quality problems, such as the monthly fixed asset investment, and the unreliability of the data will bring unexpected consequences to the relevant decisions, and the relevant departments should do well in data collection.

Among them, she said the price signal is cleaner and clearer. "The benchmark interest rate for loans and deposits in China has been the lowest since the second half of last year. The current interest rate level is lower than that in the 1998 financial crisis, and real interest rates are negative for many people."