2016/17 Seed Cotton Acquisition Costs Fear "Castle In The Air"

Although many mainland textile and garment enterprises come to Xinjiang to see the market or make inquiries by telephone or mail, there are few orders. In the past, the mainland textile enterprises generally went to the Xinjiang to purchase cotton in September.

In this way, the high cost of seed cotton purchase in 2016/17 has become a "castle in the air".

The price of seed cotton is high, and the price of lint is upside down.

Jinshi futures Cotton Research Center analyst said that due to the current seed cotton supply is adequate, textile enterprises purchase intention is not strong, light trading, lint spot market running under the cost line.

Although China's monetary policy is loose in the second half of this year, the hot money has begun to enter the commodity trading market, and the cotton market is one of them. But the cotton market is not the main area of hot money involvement. Only a small amount of hot money can be seen in the market and sold at low prices.

In September of this year, Xinjiang seed cotton opened the scale, the price was about 6.50 yuan / kg.

In early October, Xinjiang seed cotton prices rose rapidly to 7.20 yuan / kg.

In the Hami area of Xinjiang, even the highest seed cotton purchase price in all Xinjiang is 8.10 yuan per kilogram.

Last year, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was only 5.10 yuan / kg and 5.30 yuan per kilogram last year. According to the data of China Cotton Association, the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton was lower than the national average.

With temperature decreasing and rain and snow coming, cotton harvest in Xinjiang is coming to an end this year.

But reporters learned from the national cotton market monitoring system that in November 7th, the purchase price of seed cotton in main cotton producing areas in Xinjiang still maintained about 7.20 yuan / kg.

Xinjiang seed cotton high prices began to pmit to Hebei, Anhui, Henan, Shandong and other cotton planting provinces, in November 7th the above area cotton seed purchase price 6.50-7.70 yuan / kg.

Although at present

The purchase price has dropped slightly from the previous high point, but it is still significantly higher than the same period in recent years.

The target price of cotton determined by the state this year is 18600 yuan / ton. At present, the purchase price of seed cotton has already surpassed this price.

A market analyst pointed out that the price of seed cotton has been high this year, which is irrational market behavior.

On the one hand, the global cotton output has risen slightly this year. On the other hand, the global oil price has been running low, and the price of chemical fiber of the substitute for pure cotton products has been in the low position. The price difference of cotton and polyester has reached 8000 yuan / ton, which is nearly 2000 yuan / ton higher than the average level of last year, and the cost of chemical fiber replacing cotton is low.

In addition, the downstream textile and garment industry is still depressed, the total consumption of cotton consumed by the national textile and garment enterprises is decreasing, and the purchasing intention of cotton is not strong, and it is in a wait-and-see state.

Such a high lack of basic support.

Hidden behind the mystery.

The upside down price of lint and seed cotton makes the cotton enterprises that rush to buy high price seed cotton suffer much.

A chief executive of a cotton enterprise in Xinjiang said that the price of seed cotton in Xinjiang was mostly 6.50-7.50 yuan / kg, and the lint price was 16250-17250 yuan / ton, while the price of the cotton and lint clothing purchase was only 15000-16000 yuan / ton, and the difference was about 1000 yuan / ton.

It is worth noting that cotton enterprises in mid September to mid October this seed cotton concentrate on the market share of the largest purchase, the price of 7.50-7.90 yuan / kg.

In 2014-2016 years, during the 3 years of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang, the cotton yield in the mainland continued to decline, cotton planting area continued to shrink, and cotton enterprises went to Xinjiang to build factories or factories.

At the same time, in the past few years, when the cotton purchase and storage policy was implemented in the first few years, the cotton enterprises were in line with the principles of "quick acquisition, quick processing, quick delivery and storage", which attracted huge profits and attracted various social capital to invest in cotton enterprises, and cotton enterprises sprung up like mushrooms.

At present, there are 853 cotton enterprises qualifying in Xinjiang, nearly 6 million tons of processing capacity, far higher than cotton production, and the competition for seed cotton acquisitions is fierce.

In addition, Xinjiang cotton enterprises, especially new cotton enterprises, are leasing to others.

In order to keep the basic balance of payments and small profits, when the seed cotton is starting to scale this year, these leased cotton enterprises will not lose their cotton and will definitely lose money. They need to buy a certain amount of seed cotton according to the size of the cotton enterprises, so as to ensure the balance of payments, and the price of lint rises after the gamble.