Demon Stock Ups And Downs Do Not Work Well, A Drop Will Burst Instantly.

Although many analysts regard the two funds as a barometer of investor sentiment, many investors do not have a strong psychological tolerance. Once the market risk is changed, they will panic and mess up and choose to escape and aggravate market volatility. Therefore, I do not agree that the general investors should use leverage. Moreover, it is not a bull market at present, nor should they use the leveraged speculative stocks. Unless the market leader can no longer judge the trend of the stock market, avoid losing their capital and avoid their psychological injury.

In the past 15 years, a lot of investors have overused leverage, which not only made themselves lose their capital, but also brought huge disasters to the capital market itself. Many market participants have been thinking about the negative effects of leveraged economy on finance. But the mentality of Chinese investors to gamble is always difficult to change. It is said that people's memory is only seven seconds, so that the pain is forgotten, and the trend of market leveraging is gradually increasing. Although it reflects a kind of expectation that investors are optimistic about the future, the risks involved can not be underestimated.

According to media information, as of November 10th, the information disclosed by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange totaled 932 billion 900 million yuan for the two cities and two yuan, and the scale of the two financial melts returned to the top of 930 billion yuan after a lapse of more than 9 months.

The two increase in financing means that investors will invest more money in Securities and invest in stocks. That is to say, investors' leverage is increasing, magnifying profits and amplifying risks. It is impossible to enlarge profits while not amplifying risks. This is the double-sided nature of leveraged funds. The risk of two financing is to pay some interest to investors and even pay higher commission with investors, which undoubtedly increases the cost of capital for investors. The most frightening thing is that investors misread the direction. Then there will be a risk of bursting. The formation of the stock market crash in 15 years is the gradual collapse of leverage funds, resulting in a decline in market liquidity and a spiral decline.

In recent years, China's stock market has been relatively strong. It is not only stronger than the three largest indexes in the United States, but also stronger than the stock market in Hongkong, but this is not only a market game factor, but also a mysterious fund support factor. The funds of the safeguard fund mainly promote the financial three swordsmen and the prefix capital plate. There are also media publicity factors, including the futures market linkage factors.

　　隨著樓市調控的不斷加強，從樓市退出的投機資金高達萬億元，部分直接進入期貨市場瘋狂投機，開始炒作黑色系為主的期貨市場，焦煤動力煤上漲或許有市場因素在內，有色上漲有特朗普當選美國總統加大基建投資因素在內，但是玉米呢?現貨市場僅僅1000元一噸，而期貨市場高達1600一噸，投機瘋狂一目了然，就是煤炭有色基本面也沒有太多改變，產能過剩局面沒有根本性扭轉，企業杠桿沒有明顯降低，財務狀況沒有太多改變，發改委也多次強調煤價上漲有非理性因素有投機因素，就是中字頭股票或者一帶一路股票從換手率看也是充滿投機因素，特朗普當選總統利好一帶一路有幾何，這個缺少很多的佐證，A股上市券商2016年的三季報全部披露，25家上市券商累計實現營業收入1777.6億元，同比下降41.3%;實現凈利潤667.9億元，同比下降49.01%。

There is a lack of basic support for the rise. The essence of Shenzhen and Hong Kong's hype is that it is an overreaction.

Therefore, the rise of stock market is not a fundamental reaction, but a result of the resonance between the market and speculation.

In terms of the stock market environment, the author believes that it has not changed, but is worse than the first half of the year.

The exchange rate has reached 100 yuan, the exchange rate has come to 6.86 yuan, and the pressure of capital outflow has been increasing. In October, it was stored at 3 trillion and 120 billion US dollars, a decrease of 45 billion 700 million US dollars, the largest monthly decline in the past 9 months. The real estate asset bubble is becoming more and more serious. Inflation worries are slowly attacking. In October, CPI has broken 2. The central bank's monetary policy has been restricted by more and more, and it has to tighten money moderately, resulting in the rising market capital interest rate.

Secondly, the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large. In the first half of the year, the main reason is that the real estate infrastructure is driven by the expansion of the real estate bubble, where the future economic growth is, and the growth of consumption is not so optimistic. The influence of Trump's Populism trade protectionism on China's exports needs to be evaluated, and the macroeconomic base of the stock market's rise is not so solid.

Moreover, the pressure of expansion is increasing. The pressure of expansion comes from new shares and reduction. At present, the pressure of new shares will continue to increase, and the pressure of reduction will increase with the increase of share prices.

As far as the world financial environment is concerned, there are also many variables. Trump is a person who has no words and promises, and the policy will be more changeable. European populism may further affect Italy after leaving Europe.

The Fed's interest rate hike in December has been basically established at the moment. When capital flows back to the US, it will inevitably become more variable.

Therefore, the so-called bull market and the bull market are not necessarily the true reflection of the fundamentals. There are many speculative factors.

In fact, market leverage funds are mainly concentrated on some.

It also reflects the speculative psychology of the market, and further increases the risk of leveraged funds. According to media data, non-ferrous metals are continuously raised by financing customers, and the net purchase amount of 922 million yuan ranks first in the two cities.

On November 1st -10, the total net purchase amount of non-ferrous metal plates was as high as 5 billion 364 million yuan.

The net buying volume of Jiangxi copper continued to rise to 407 million yuan.

China Construction, China Unicom, Tin shares and state Yuan Securities and other stocks from October to early November net purchase amount of up to 500 million yuan, this part of the stock is stronger than the market and rise, and leverage fund intervention is not related, Chinese construction has low price earnings factor, and China Unicom is a high valuation stock market, only mixed change concept, Guo Yuan Securities in the same type of securities dealers also do not have a particularly outstanding place, and from the financing balance account for the market value of the market share, it is the small and medium-sized, the world.

As of November, 10 of the data, the financing balance accounted for 20% of the circulation market capitalization stocks are basically subject stocks.

We can see that the two funds that are concentrated in the stock market are not based on the long-term investment value, but more from the speculative point of view. From the perspective of short speculation, this will further enlarge the market risk and magnify the risk of investors.

In the second half of the 15 year, stock burst stocks also focused on the overvalued stocks.