The Risk Of RMB'S Short-Term Devaluation, Why Is A Shares So "Proud And Charming"?

Under the special market situation, the impact pressure of RMB devaluation on the stock market will be reduced.

At the same time, combined with the previous state team's funds to the stock market in a highly controlled state, it further reduced the risk of market volatility.

However, in this way, the market-oriented operation in the real sense can only be postponed and will affect the pace of market-oriented reform.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the depreciation rate of the central parity has reached 6%.

In other words, if holding RMB assets, the pressure of depreciation will be more obvious during the year.

With the accelerated depreciation of the renminbi, everyone began to become nervous about their pocketbook.

During this period, investors with a certain asset size and strong asset hedging needs had already exchanged dollars for the purpose of preserving and increasing their assets. However, investors lacking in assets and restricted by foreign exchange control could only seek effective investment channels everywhere in China.

Up to now, the central parity of RMB has appeared for 9 consecutive days, while the offshore renminbi has fallen below the 6.89 level, creating a new low for many years.

Perhaps, for the domestic market in recent years, the renminbi has adjusted its strategy, instead of focusing on the dollar, instead of paying more attention to a basket of currencies.

In fact, in recent years, the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies has basically maintained a stable trend. Compared with that, however, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has continued to weaken, and the psychological impact on investors still can not be underestimated.

It is worth mentioning that since the RMB was formally incorporated into the SDR in October 1st this year, the performance of the RMB against the US dollar is obviously soft, and the recent election of Trump seems to be a catalyst to accelerate the weakening of the RMB against the US dollar.

Undeniably, from the recent performance of the RMB, the frequency of central bank intervention has been reduced, which is also the embodiment of the gradual decline in the frequency of intervention after China's entry into the SDR.

At the same time, with the continuous deepening of the liberalization of capital account in China, the risk of "double-edged sword" incorporated into SDR will become increasingly prominent.

It can be seen that if there is no strong risk prevention level and effective coping ability, the RMB will be

The series of risks induced in the process can not be underestimated.

At the end of last month, with the aggravation of the devaluation pressure of RMB, the market has gradually exposed the problem of the rapid rise of the volume of pactions of insurance merchants' certificates of deposit.

Affected by this, UnionPay international also stated at that time that the overseas brush union card could not purchase the life insurance with capital investment nature, but did not stop the payment of the UnionPay card of overseas insurance business.

However, from this move, it can be indirectly found that under the pressure of RMB devaluation, many funds seem to seek a more convenient way to escape, which is more likely to trigger a series of panic effects and increase the risk of short-term devaluation of the RMB.

At present, the devaluation of the RMB pressure is dependent, coupled with the possibility of raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December.

This undoubtedly constitutes a pressure on the trend of short-term RMB.

Affected by this, the impact of RMB assets needs to be on the alert.

In fact, the accelerated devaluation of the renminbi is not entirely bad.

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In actual circumstances, the accelerated devaluation of the RMB will be beneficial to exports, and will have a direct impact on industries with high dependence on exports.

At the same time, under the trend of RMB devaluation, it will enhance the exchange earnings of some enterprises and bring more or less benefits to the related enterprises.

However, a more critical problem is that the risk of capital flight will be greatly reduced under the relatively closed domestic investment environment.

At the same time, with the strict control of indirect channels such as underground banks, the pressure of capital flight will be further slowed down.

As a result, in the face of the huge environment of private capital in recent years, many funds are more likely to seek more effective ways to preserve and increase the value of assets in China. Once there is a continuous profit making effect in a certain investment field, it is more likely to go anywhere.

Facing the background of accelerating the depreciation of RMB, it has brought us many tests. After Trump was formally elected, it has also added a lot of uncertainties to the world, and the difficulty of our test is further enhanced.

However, for us, in the process of stepping out of the world and gradually realizing the degree of liberalization of capital account, we need to do well in our own risk prevention and control so as to enhance our risk response capability so that we can go further and more steadily.