Domestic PTA Spot Market Presents A Trend Of Concussion.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the output of chemical fiber in October was 4 million 235 thousand tons, an increase of 345 thousand tons from the previous month, an increase of 8.87% over the previous month, down 3.2% from the same period last year, and the production of chemical fiber in 40 million 824 thousand months was 40 million 824 thousand tons, an increase of 4.9% over the same period last year.

Polyester production in October was 992 thousand tons, an increase of 8.29% over the previous month, an increase of 2.1% over the same period last year, and a cumulative production of 9 million 943 thousand tons of polyester in 1-10 months, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year. As of November 25th, the average operating rate of PET chips was around 65%, the average running rate of polyester filament devices was about 78.5%, the average operating rate of PET staple devices was around 71%, and the overall opening rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was about 81%, of which the overall water injection in Shengze was around about 30%; the water injection rate in Changxin was about 20%; the overall operating rate of the Shaw machine was around 65%-70%, the Changshu warp knitting operation rate was 80%-90%, and the Haining warp knitting operation rate was 78.5%.

As of the two quarter of 2016, domestic PTA production capacity totaled 48 million 800 thousand tons, and the idle capacity of long-term parking or occasional driving was about 12 million 550 thousand tons, the actual effective capacity was 36 million 250 thousand tons, and the utilization rate of capacity was about 75%.

Only 2 million 200 thousand HP petrochemical units have been put into operation this year, and the growth rate of production capacity has slowed down significantly.

According to the operation load calculation of PTA manufacturers in China, the average load of PTA plant in November is about 71%, which is 5 percentage points higher than that of October, and the initial maintenance is 66%.

Restart one after another.

At present, the inventory of PTA manufacturers is maintained for about 1-6 days. As of November 28th, the exchange's warehouse receipts were 134270, with an effective forecast of 7501, totaling about 700 thousand tons.

PTA contract goods, Sinopec, Hengli petrochemical November PTA settlement price of 5000 yuan / ton, compared with October increased by 100 yuan / ton.

Hengli petrochemical December PTA listing price of 5100 yuan.

Domestic PTA spot market presents a trend of concussion.

As of November 25th, the price of PTA East China market was 4900 yuan / ton, up about 180 yuan / ton from last month, and the spot price of external market has been reported to 606 US dollars / ton, up about 1 US dollars / ton from last month.

In November, the Asian PX price was in the range of 767-810 US dollars / ton. According to the processing charge of 500 yuan / ton, the dynamic production situation of PTA in November was 50 to 200 yuan / ton, and the profit of PTA producer improved.

The stock days of mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 5-14 days, of which POY is near the level of 7 days, FDY is near 7 days, and DTY is near 9 days.

The stock of polyester industry remained at a low level in November.

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic polyester market has performed well, and the stock of polyester products has continued to decline, maintaining at a low level in the year.

Under the pressure of stock pressure, polyester products prices continued to be on the warmer trend, or even higher than that of polyester raw materials.

The polyester production rate is above 80%, and production and marketing are relatively balanced.

Due to the Early Spring Festival holiday in January, the downstream industry was ahead of schedule, and demand in December was facing a downward trend.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in October, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $21 billion 460 million, a decrease of 5.73% compared to the same period, down 9.28% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and articles) amounted to US $8 billion 598 million, down 6.64% compared to the same period last year. Exports of garments (including garments and accessories) were US $12 billion 862 million, down 10.96% from the same period last year.

In 1-10 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 222 billion 561 million US dollars, down 5.31% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 88 billion 132 million US dollars, down 3.25% from the same period last year. The total export volume of garments was 134 billion 429 million US dollars, down 6.62% from the same period last year.

In terms of domestic sales, in October, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 31119 billion yuan, up by 10% compared with nominal growth, and the retail sales of consumer goods above the limit reached 13508 billion yuan, an increase of 7.5%.

Among them, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles were 130 billion 200 million yuan, up 7.5% over the same period last year.

In 1-10, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 269601 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year, and retail sales of consumer goods above the limit of 122312 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8%.

Among them, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles were 11310 billion yuan, up 7.2% over the same period last year.

According to the statistics of China National Business Information Center, hundreds of key retail enterprises nationwide in October.

Retail sales increased by 5.8% over the same period last year, 3.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year, 3.4 percentage points faster than last month.

In October, the export volume of textile and clothing continued to decline compared with the same period last year, and export performance was relatively weak. The RMB exchange rate hit a new low of six years. It is expected that the depreciation of RMB will help improve the export competitiveness of textile and garment enterprises. In October, the performance of garment retail data is better, mainly from the early winter of this year.

To sum up, the domestic economic data are mixed, the cumulative growth rate of investment is rising, the growth rate of real estate investment is up, and the industrial added value is flat. However, the growth rate of social retail and manufacturing investment slowed down in the same month. Real estate regulation has brought downward pressure on the economy. The depreciation of the RMB, the reduction of financial leverage, and the increase in interest rates raised by the Federal Reserve in December all make liquidity tighter.

The Asian PX's processing price rebounded slightly.

In terms of supply and demand, domestic PTA installations started up to 70%, the profits of large manufacturers improved, the overall supply tended to pick up, the exchange warehouse receipts increased to 700 thousand tons above; downstream demand, the weaving enterprises started to fall in the downstream areas, and the polyester industry inventory was at a low level. The autumn and winter textile consumption peak season had boosted the overall production and sales. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in January, demand in December was facing a downward trend.

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In November, the PTA main contract showed a trend of concussion, with a monthly fluctuation of about 580, a monthly fluctuation of about 11%, a weekly fluctuation of 120-654, a weekly fluctuation of about 360, and a daily fluctuation of 40-654, with an average fluctuation of about 115 per day.

It is expected that PTA will tend to be broad and volatile in December. It is suggested that intra day pactions should be 50-120 intervals. Weekly trading should be 120-240 intervals. Pay attention to rhythm control and position control, and make good capital management. Specific operations can be taken into the postgraduate entrance examination [micro-blog] daily analysis.

(1) capital management: this paction will be invested in 15%-25% of total capital, and the proportion of positions held in batches will not exceed 30% of total funds.

(2) the position cost: PTA1701 contracts take up a short selling strategy, the warehouse area is 5250-5350 yuan / ton, and the position cost control is around 5300 yuan / ton.

(3) risk control: if the closing price breaks through 5450 yuan / ton, stop all the positions.

(4) holding cycle: the paction is expected to be held for 2 months, depending on market changes and fundamentals.

(5) the profit margin plan: the current price is going to our strategic direction, and the lower target is 4850 yuan / ton.

The status of the optic disc and the trend of technology can be scrolled up to gain profits.

(6) risk return ratio assessment: the expected risk return ratio is 3:1.

1, the upstream crude oil and PX have risen sharply, and the cost driven period has risen.

2, the maintenance of PTA devices increased, and the supply decreased.

3, the Fed has failed to raise interest rates and its liquidity remains loose.

3, corporate hedging strategy

Since the three quarter, large PTA production enterprises have calculated the processing cost of 500 yuan / ton, fluctuating under the profit and loss line, and the dynamic profit margin of the panel rose to 50 to 200 yuan / ton. PTA production enterprises can gradually establish an empty single guarantee position when the disk dynamic profit is above 180 yuan / ton, so as to prevent the risk of future PTA price fall and lock the processing profit.

Overall, the Fed's rate hike is expected to increase, which will likely aggravate commodity market turbulence. Upstream raw material prices will become more volatile, cost support will be weakened, PTA operating rate is above 70%, supply will increase in the early stage, and current arbitrage will be suppressed against the price. It is expected that the PTA price will show a concussive trend of high inflation, and the PTA1705 contract is expected to be dominated by 4850-5350 interval fluctuations.

In November, the commodity market continued to have a long atmosphere, and PTA was on the rise.

Entering the December, the uncertain risks faced by the commodity market increased. The Italy referendum, the Fed's interest rate expectations and the year-end capital pressure aggravated the market turbulence; the PTA plant operating rate was at a high level in the year, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased above 700 thousand tons, which constituted the suppression of the price between the air and the air. PTA could take the strategy of selling up and short, and the 1705 contract could be washed up short.

Technically, the PTA1705 contract is facing 5300-5400 first line pressure, and the next test is 4850-5000 line support. It is expected that the December contract will be mainly in 4850-5350 interval fluctuations.

The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reported 7700-7860 yuan / ton of polyester POY150D/48F, the average price was 7790 yuan / ton, 0.56% higher than the beginning of the week; DTY150D/48F (low elastic) reported 9300-9550 yuan / ton, the average price was 9367.78 yuan / ton, 0.18% higher than the beginning of the week; FDY150D/96F reported 8100-8400 yuan / ton, the average price was 8324.29 yuan / ton, 1.22% times higher than the beginning of the week.

During the week, the polyester filament market showed a steady and moderate preference. Raw material prices rose and cost pressures appeared.

The PTA spot market of polyester filament has been on the high side, and the PTA has been rising well in recent years. When Zhuhai BP 110 10000 ton / year PTA device was downsized in November 30th, the operating rate was reduced by 2.44% compared with last week.

The OPEC frozen production agreement this week has made international oil prices violent, and the PTA market is now rising slightly.

The market of polyester filament goes up and down first. The weak form of commodity futures market in early Zhou Dynasty, the ethylene glycol market is slightly reorganized, and the atmosphere of the whole negotiation is a little calm. On Thursday, the crude oil freeze production agreement was unexpectedly reached, crude oil soared and ethylene glycol market slightly increased.

Downstream polyester level performance is stable, manufacturers stable production and marketing.

The PTA market reached the agreement on frozen production. Crude oil rose sharply, resulting in a slight rise in the price of PTA this week. Polyester filament was encouraged to rise slightly by cost support.

Polyester plant started relatively stable, loom operating rate also maintained high, polyester factory inventory level is still low.

BP PTA device shutdown inspection, PTA supply is expected to reduce, while the rise in oil prices PTA supporting role, but the gradual decline in the downstream start, the price is expected to maintain stability, polyester filament supported by the cost of raw materials short-term boost, it is expected that next week, polyester filament will keep warm.