New Changes In A Shares: Risk Aversion Of Funds Revealed

On Monday, A shares unexpectedly opened up sharply, and blue chips collapsed, and the Shanghai Stock Index came directly to the 3200 point.

Everyone knows why - Liu Shiyu's speech on the weekend surprised the market.

And whether this will directly condemn the big capital driven blue chip market, which can be captured from the overtones of "hard words".

Some analysts point out that the "tough words" of the regulators have three meanings: first, the essence of insurance is to disperse risks, but the frequent short-term operation of the two level market is speculative in itself. Radical actions make the risk assets become the makers of huge risks from the elimination of risks; secondly, rely on the advantages of capital to stir up trouble, and intervene in the good operation of excellent enterprises. The original management has no intention of doing a good job. A good company is destroyed. A typical example is Vanke. Finally, if we do not pay much attention to the excesses of venture capital and leverage the pipeline of some radical insurance companies, the tragedy of the stock market will come back again in 2015.

Although there has been no real policy landing for the time being, we can see from the above interpretation that the determination of regulators is very large, which is far beyond the market expectations.

Guangzhou Bandung believes that in this way, the leading logic of the previous placards has been reversed. Due to the unclear administrative restrictions and subsequent measures, the insurance companies continue to raise their concerns in the short term.

From the disk can also be seen, even if only a mountain, tiger, Jilin Ao Dong, GUI rope shares and other placards concept stocks were also closed in the morning limit, the risk aversion of funds revealed.

We know that the biggest feature of the current market is the lack of money making effect.

And other industrial capital operation stocks are the only remaining places of popularity. Once the flag is down, the funds will only fall and the funds will continue to leave.

Therefore, as a small investor in the market, we must conform to the current trend of A shares and timely change the train of thought: at present, our primary task is to guard against risks and ensure the safety of principal.

It is not wise to extend the hand to pick up the knife. It is possible to take the red char out of the fire. It is very likely that we will take out a piece of red charcoal. We need to guard against this problem. If we hold our hands, we should take the risk of selling away safely when we sell it. On the other hand, for some high priced stocks with no performance support, we often push the stock price up by capital drive, and there is no real investment value. When the market is strong, we can barely catch the fast wind. Once the market is weakening, the naked swimmer will be fully exposed. On the one hand, for the current stocks (placards) that have been put on the supervision of guns, although there is a self rescue in the short term, the main funds are deep set.

Venture capital is the "boss" of institutional investors. Should it act as the "leading brother" of leveraged placards, or should it learn from the pension and become a model of long-term investors and be a "ballast stone" or "stabilizer" of China's stock market? I believe that venture capital should return to investment and learn from pensions instead of leveraging and controlling the controlling rights of irrelevant companies.

You know, it's very difficult to become a real long-term investor after the risk plus leverage.

The reason is very simple, you use your own 1 billion yuan of money to pry others' pockets of 50 billion funds and buy others' businesses, this is called "lever listing", then you can also use the 50 billion leveraged acquisition of equity to go to the bank to pledge. After obtaining huge loans from the bank, you can also sell the private equity fund or the Internet platform to the leveraged product, and then go to another company, so that leverage and leverage will not be long-term investment or insurance, but the risk of "leveraged specialized households". What is the risk behind it? We don't know! It is definitely not the future of the listed company, but the shareholders.

The probability of gambling is the last chance for retail investors to voluntarily pay the bill.

They believe that this has neither touched the bottom line of morality nor touched the bottom line of law. It is a fair policy game and market arbitrage. Is this the embarrassment of "policy market"? Or is it "bullying" in retail market, or weak points and loopholes in "separate supervision"?

In this regard, we may as well first review chairman Liu Shiyu's recent speech at the second member conference of the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association.

In his speech, President Liu pointed out: "I hope that the asset managers will not be extravagant, but do not act as a goblin to stir up trouble.

Recently, there has been a series of abnormal phenomena in the capital market. It is possible for you to have money, raise the cards and offer the takeover of listed companies. This has a positive effect as a challenge to some companies with imperfect governance structure.

However, the money you use for the wrong way is a leveraged buyout, a stranger from the doorway to a barbarian, and finally a robber in the industry.

This is the bottom line of challenging national financial laws and regulations, and also the bottom line of challenging professional ethics. This is the retrogression and loss of human nature and business ethics, and it is not financial innovation at all. "

It should be said that this is a warning given by Chairman Liu to the people's blind speculation in the A share market, as well as a warning of leveraged signs. This is also a common practice of western financial regulators, also known as "moral advice" (moralsuasion) or "window guidance" (windowguidance). Although it is not legally mandatory, it has a strong declarative effect (announcementeffect). It shows the attitude and regulatory determination of regulators, is conducive to changing market expectations, and gives good advice and warnings to those who are lucky with malicious luck.

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From Chairman Guo Shuqing to Chairman Xiao Gang, they are very good at using the "window guidance" approach, and through public meeting speech to describe the reform blueprint, formulate reform plan, let the market digested the reform anticipation ahead of time, at the same time can also test the market reaction.

Unfortunately, China's stock market is a pure "retail market" plus "policy city" structure. Therefore, it is easy to go to extremes, to face up to favorable policies and rush into mass action.

The market lacks cornerstone investors and mainstay, without direction and backbone. It is easy to swing and rise and fall. This is also the biggest defect and death point of the retail market and policy market.

After chairman Liu Shiyu took office, he rarely spoke in public, and he was committed to improving the construction of information disclosure system and strictly controlling the crime of cracking down on securities. At the same time, he was trying hard to push forward the reform of marketization and rule of law, as the "sense of justice" advice as chairman of the SFC. This is the first time he has spoken publicly in public "since he took office." it also expresses the determination of the SFC to control leveraged signs and signs. Its purpose is to safeguard the three principles of the market and protect small investors.

It is obvious that President Liu's speech is a warning bell for the leverage of China's stock market in full swing, but it is not a death knell, because it is just a moral advice of goodwill.

If China's stock market's leverage is really going on, it may lead to mergers and acquisitions, and this is also a good advice for investors to follow suit.

However, some people disagree with Chairman Liu's "moral advice". They are even very excited to argue that, as long as they do not commit crimes, the SFC will not have the right to make moral condemnation of the leveraged card raising chaos. They believe that leveraged lifting is also a "financial innovation" and is conducive to improving the system and forcing supervision to follow up.

Therefore, even if deliberately evading regulation, such innovations should be encouraged as long as there is no evidence of crimes.

All this, suddenly reminded me of a rumour once that an owner once had done accounting and tax work. He found many loopholes in the local tax work. He said that in order to improve and perfect the local tax work, he deliberately let his enterprises evade taxes and tax, and publicly threatened tax workers. You can't find out my business problems.

He explained to my friends that I am not directly telling them where loopholes are, that is, let them reflect on their own and make progress themselves.

He said, because I love my city.

What kind of nonsense is this?

The stock market is an intangible place for redistribution of wealth.

The reason why leveraged cards are so hot and so frantic is that they dare to gamble with "policy city", "retail market" and "separate supervision", in order to make huge profits.

A ridiculous "policy market"! Because a word of a big person can lead to a big bull market, or a sentence of a big person can trigger a stock disaster. Institutions and investors are always used to criticize or comment on some ongoing reform, such as the registration system and the securities law, in the light of the fact that the stock market is falling.

Is this called the market? What is the market? This is called "policy city"!

Over speculation of "retail market"! A certain organization or a few agencies must create a hype theme (for example, raise the cards), and then they will breathe out their voices.

(retail investors) immediately responded to the horse's response, so a speculative game of a mass movement or a few stocks was started.

This kind of organization, the retail price of the fish, and the retail investors willing to lift the sedan's share price to control the game are finally paid by the retail investors.

Is this the market? What kind of market is it? This is "retail market". Apart from "policy city" and "retail market", separate supervision seems to be out of date. This is also a very embarrassing matter.

The biggest blind spot of separate supervision is the blind area of "cross industry supervision" brought about by financial innovation. For example, it is obvious that the merger and acquisition of stocks in the stock market should be supervised by the SFC. However, it has used "leveraged buy-out", which includes both bank credit leverage and insurance product (universal insurance) leverage, and even Internet finance private equity fund. This series of cross industry leveraged financing seems to be available to anyone, but no one can manage it.

For example, the Securities Regulatory Commission or the Securities Association has accused some insurance companies of raising their cards and leveraging the funds of their brands. The CIRC or the insurance association will come out to protect themselves and help the venture capital "clarify the truth".

In this way, regulation becomes mutual dismantling rather than mutual cooperation. Such a regulatory mode will form a regulatory blind spot, which will induce some institutions to evade supervision by deliberately seeking malicious loopholes in institutional loopholes.

This is unfair to those who abide by the law.

In fact, in today's China's stock market, mergers and acquisitions are chaotic, and most of them take the name of asset reorganization. Speculative activities such as "leveraged placards" are the main reasons for the speculation. The purpose is not to become bigger and stronger, but to rob huge stock market wealth by "frying shareholders".

First of all, from the source of M & a funds, it appears to be the OTC private placement and the leveraged asset allocation. In fact, these funds are directly provided by retail investors. For example, the assets of the asset managers are all retail investors. The buyers of universal insurance are all retail investors. The private equity funds issued by the Internet financial platform are mostly purchased by retail investors.

Secondly, from the M & a process, before it reaches the red line, it has already got enough cheap chips. When it raises the cards to attract retail investors to follow up hype, they can start to enjoy the huge profits of the retail sedan chairs. Finally, from the results of M & A, the short frying M & A will ultimately control the voting rights of the listed companies, and push the listed companies to implement the allocation plan of large proportion pfer, so that the retail investors will take the initiative to pay the bill and push up the stock price several times, and then the acquirer will run away at a high price.

Is there a solution? Of course, there is a solution. How to really break the magic curse of the "policy city" + "retail market"? To break the policy market, the only way to break the market is to "go to administration" in the first level market, implement the IPO registration system, make the IPO market, let the new share price fall to the floor and automatically withdraw the market, which is the only way to eliminate the policy city.

Registration system is a revolution in the A share market, and fear is useless.

The only way to break the retail market is to expand the public fund by 10 times, and to make the banking, securities, insurance, trust, futures and other series of information management business develop and prosper. At the same time, we need to make more than 10 times the National Pension Reserve, especially the occupational pension and occupational pension.

Faced with the chaos of leverage, we should focus on guarding against the behavior of emptying listed companies and emptying shareholders.

In the process of economic pformation and industrial upgrading, we must merge and merge some overcapacity industries. However, mergers and acquisitions are not going to be real and virtual, and abandoning the main industry. Mergers and acquisitions are not playing with capital operations, turning over stock rights, and emptying listed companies and emptying shareholders.

The sole purpose of merger and acquisition is to enlarge and strengthen the real economy.

The prosperity of industry and the strong foundation of industry are always the foundation of building a country and the foundation of a powerful country with a large population.

This is the mainstream and fundamental of mergers and acquisitions.

President Liu's speech should also express his worries and anxieties about "A" policy market, "retail market" and "separate supervision system".

We look forward to the implementation of the IPO registration system as soon as possible, and vigorously expand the public fund, vigorously develop enterprise annuity and occupational annuity, so that the people can turn more wealth reserves into huge pension reserves and public offering funds, and, of course, encourage more public entrepreneurship and innovation.

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