A Shares, Which Are Skyrocketing And Plunging, Are Becoming Easier And Harder To Fall.

The market share of A shares has really changed.

Despite the recent emergence of the "black swan" in the U. S. election, the Fed has increased its interest rate, the RMB has depreciated to 7 yuan for more than ten days, the 4 batches of 52 new shares, the speed of expansion are unprecedented, the monetary tightening at the end of the year, the end of the year, and so on, many people worried, every day to beware of the stock market plunge.

A little bit of wind and wind, you can't wait to see the empty space.

However, it is surprising that in a period of time, the stock market has gone up or down. Even if the adjustment is even drastic, it will only be completed in the middle of the market and the closing line will still be pulled out.

People can not help asking: why is it that A stocks, which bear short, steep and steep bears, are becoming easier and harder to fall? This is a problem that all investors must think deeply about.

When many people have not come out of the 5178 year - 2638 unusual stock market crash last year, when most of the market participants and investors are too shy to export even two words, international investment banks have listed the Chinese stock market as one of the 13 markets in the world to enter the bull market.

That is to say, from the 2638 lowest point in the year to 3262 points this week, the increase has reached 23.65%, which has reached the standard of converting the bear market into a bull market by more than 20%.

Although most people have been frightened by the public opinion misled by the authoritative media "the 4000 point is the new starting point of the bull market" last year, "once bitten by a snake, ten years shy of the shaft", now even "3000 points are the new starting point of the A share market" dare not be said.

However, when the big market broke through 3097 points in April 13th and 3140 points in August 16th, that is to say, after 2638 points rose to 20%, in fact, many foresight people have admitted that A shares entered.

From November 4th to November 25th, the trend of unilateral slow rising is clearly a typical trend of slow down.

The basic characteristics of the bull market are: rising or falling, and the basic strategy of investors is to keep stocks up.

At the moment, the stock market is very high and normal.

First of all, there are more than 2 billion in the market, holding a total number of shares accounted for more than 50%, 1500 stocks of the national team.

The national team has repeatedly put the stock market in danger for more than a year from the beginning of July last year to save the stock market crash.

On the one hand, it has smoothed the fluctuation of the market and avoided frequent occurrence of the sharp rise and fall.

On the other hand, we continue to profit from overshooting small cap stocks.

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This led to two results: first, the supernormal stability of the Shanghai Composite Index, the rising of the bottom and the upward movement of the top, which is only 7.86% worse than the 3539 closing index at the end of last year.

The two is to suppress the gem index of nearly 100 times price earnings ratio and bubble, and gradually return to the 70 times price earnings ratio, which is 20.16% lower than the 2714 closing index at the end of last year, reaching a bear market standard.

It can be seen that the national team played a crucial role in eliminating the shadow of the stock market crash, maintaining the stability of the stock market and adjusting the structure of the stock market.

Second, the pension fund's entry into the market is imminent.

From the scale of possible incremental funding, according to the calculation of Huatai Securities, there may be trillions of capital in theory.

According to the ratio of 2 trillion yuan for the operation and management pension fund and the initial investment A share 15%, the initial pension market is estimated to be about 300 billion yuan.

The significance of the pension market entry is mainly to show that A shares have investment value, provide a new long-term and stable investment force, and generate multiplier effect on 1:N of social capital.

In the medium to long term, this will help to gradually change the investment style and concept of the market and optimize the investor structure of the A share market.

At present, the off the market funds coming into the market are considered in this way: even if the pension funds as "raising money" are willing to enter the market, then the stock market is undoubtedly an opportunity greater than risk.

And in recent years rushed to the pension fund before entering the market.

The above two things are undoubtedly the pioneering work of the stock market in the past 26 years, which is a great encouragement to the market and helps to change the long bear bull situation in China's stock market.

The first is the "Shenzhen Hong Kong Link" which will be opened in December 5th.

The industry generally believes that "Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong" will bring about 150 billion yuan of incremental funds for the A share market.

The two is the full resurrection of the two financial balance.

With the recent upward trend of A shares, the two financial market has also continued to heat up.

The latest data show that as of November 21st, the two financial balance once again exceeded 950 billion yuan, reported 954 billion 388 million yuan, an increase of 6 billion 284 million yuan from the previous day, a 10 month high.

This also means rising investment sentiment and gradual capital market entry.

The three is from the housing market, bond market, and even more stringent supervision of the futures market and other off-site funds are accelerating to the stock market.

After the stock market crash last year, a huge amount of funds withdrew from the stock market and entered the bond market, the futures market and the real estate market respectively.

After the tightening of property market regulation, capital has accelerated to enter the bond market and futures market.

Since the beginning of this year, black line futures, including coke, coking coal and rebar steel, have seen an alarming increase. They are more than 3 times higher than the price at the end of last year, and the price of agricultural products futures has increased by 1.5 to 2 times. In the first 10 months of this year, the yield of the bond market is second only to that of the commodity market.

But this phenomenon is changing at the moment.

Although the near term market is still hot, this year, the well-known private placement with the futures market as the main battleground began to close the futures positions, and moved some of the futures funds to the stock market.

In November 11th, some commodity futures went through the extreme market from the limit to the limit in a very short time, and then the futures market shock intensified.

More far-reaching than the return of futures funds on A shares is that the huge volume of bond markets and bank financing funds are returning to the stock market.

Since late October, the bond market has fallen steadily, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has hit a short-term high in the past six months.

Affected by economic stabilization, rising inflation expectations and rising risk appetite, more than 5 of bond investors have begun to look at bonds and are more optimistic about the stock market.

Four, bank financing funds also turn to the stock market.

This year, the rate of return on bank financing has also declined. At present, the annual yield of the balance treasure is only about 2.5% on the 7 day, which is not comparable to that of 7% years ago.

Some of the funds previously allocated to bank financing also had to change strategy, choose to risk revenue and start slowly inflow.

Buy blue chips that underestimate the value of dividends.

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The five is to raise the frequency of insurance funds.

Recently, the insurance company, represented by Ampang, Bao and Heng Da, raised the tide of cards.

Evergrande's two placards Vanke, holding 10%.

In November, Ampang insurance increased its holdings of 1 billion 500 million shares in November 24th, including 3 billion 100 million shares and 10% holdings, with a total cost of 23 billion yuan in November 24th, when it first launched its licensing of Chinese construction, used 11 billion 300 million of funds and reached 5% of its shareholding ratio.

Whether it is insurance funds or other industrial capital two tier market behind the placards, it may be a structural underestimation of the A share market.

Since the beginning of this year, although the whole index has been stable, the activities of placards have been frequent. 55 companies have been put on the cards. The larger ones are Chinese architecture, Vanke A, Beijing bank, Yili shares, Changjiang Securities and so on, involving funds of 89 billion yuan, which bring obvious incremental capital and money making effect to the two tier market.

Six, the fund and large household funds have been increasing since October.

According to the China Association of fund industry, as of the end of October 2016, the total assets of the public offering fund totaled 8 trillion and 740 billion yuan, while the scale of the private equity fund industry was 9 trillion and 130 billion yuan (most of the positions were very light), with a total of 16 trillion huge funds standing at the door of the stock market.

According to the latest monthly report of China's Clearing Corp, as of the end of 10, the market capitalization of investors was more than 100 million, with 4496 people.

There were 86170 investors above 10 million yuan, an increase of 3452 in September.

In addition, the number of investors from 5 million yuan to 10 million yuan was 103 thousand and 400, an increase of 4215 compared with September.

Many people are puzzled: there are now 52 new shares issued around the world, 2 new issues and 2 new listings every day. The expansion rate is much faster than that of 5178 last June. Why did the stock market go up instead of going up? I think: first, we will use the funds to purchase new stocks and purchase new shares by market value.

One side.

It has avoided the situation of large capital moving and big fluctuation in the stock market when issuing new shares. Moreover, it can not buy the next batch of purchase without waiting for the capital to be frozen for 4 days.

Second, new shares will be issued at high price earnings ratio and high price, and will be issued at low price earnings ratio and low price.

In the past, the issue price of new shares was marketization, and after the listing, they went higher and lower. Investors were deeply locked up, thus exacerbating phobia of market expansion.

Now, new shares are generally issued at low price to earnings ratio, which is beneficial to the public.

After the IPO, there are 15 daily trading limits on average, with an average return of 577%.

The huge new stock proceeds still remain in the two level market operation.

Third, people will be afraid of IPO and become a new issue.

As far as institutions are concerned, the allotment of new shares under the network is divided into three categories: A, B and C.

Class a national team, social security fund,

It can get 77.4% of the net sales; B insurance companies, enterprise annuities and institutions can get 20% of the rationing sales, and have super large households with 30 million market capitalization in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with 2.6% of the sales quota.

The placing on the net not only locks the market value of its holdings for a long time, but also stimulates the investment enthusiasm of institutional investors due to the profit and income of new shares.

For individual investors, 80 million of small and medium investors participate in the purchase of new shares almost every day in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities.

Small and medium investors bought at least 300 thousand to 500 thousand of the stock market value as much as possible, first of all, enhanced the lock of chips.

The second is profitability.

Each account can usually be signed two times a year, with a profit of about 6 to 80 thousand yuan, with a yield of more than 20%.

If the two tier stock market is also rising, the yield will be even greater than that of the welfare lottery, bank and financial products.

The second is conductivity.

The huge and extensive wealth effect of the purchase of new shares, like silent orders, has mobilized and attracted more and more new investors to participate in the one or two tier market equity investment like magnets.

The mainstream of this year's market is small and medium sized high growth stocks and high-tech stocks, especially exogenous growth stocks.

However, we can not fail to see that the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index based on financial stocks is only about 10 times the price earnings ratio, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index is about 13 times earnings. About 40 stocks have a dividend yield exceeding 4%, and the dividend yield of nearly 100 stocks is around 3%.

Therefore, there will be a big change in large cap stocks for a period of time.

This is not the main body in the pull up index to cover the shipment, but the new funds on the sidelines are gradually entering.

For large cap stocks, especially for second tier blue chips, investors who have long favored small cap growth stocks should also be understood and tolerated.

As in 2014 11--12 month is also the main reason for the rise of large cap stocks.

It is not necessary to see the rise of large cap stocks and see that their capital cards are temporarily losing the big index.

If we want to reduce risks, we can achieve the goal by controlling the positions and the right amount of high throwing and low absorption.

The five major changes in the A stock market have been successful in the recent slow down market.

Although the market has another biggest disadvantage, the Fed raised interest rates in December, which has some pressure on the market.

However, people have been mentally prepared for this bad profit for 1 years. As long as the market insists on going slow, every 100 points will shake repeatedly and wash up and consolidate (for example, 2900 points closing 57 days, 3000 days closing 54 days, 3100 days closing 21 days, 3200 points closing 10 days), even if the bad money is fulfilled, a certain extent of adjustment will not constitute a fatal blow to A shares.

When the market was on the 3230 key position for 4 consecutive days, in view of the only fusing this spring and no "Chun Sheng", the autumn grabbing market rose from 3004 to 3062 points, or only 8.58%, far less than 20.7% from 33052 to 3684 last year. I believe that in the days to come, the market will be able to climb the first "three big mountains" in front of people, 3287 points in January.

As for the following two big mountains, that is, the 3361 points in January 7th and 3539 points at the end of last year, we need to take a look at whether we can get over them.

But the stock market should be more optimistic in the first half of next year.