Next Year, A Shares May Enter The Bull Market. Who Is Behind The Scenes?

In recent years,

In general, there has been a big bull market, but this series of trends is ending, and the bond market will shift from a long bull market to a bear market.

Taking the current inventory rate as an estimate, the nationwide de stocking of real estate will basically come to an end in the first half of 2018.

In 2017, the stock market may change from a long bear market to a bull market, and the market style will also be very different.

Only through the way of false divorce can we get the qualification of buying a house, which shows that market speculation is very difficult.

The rise of housing prices can not be simply interpreted as excess liquidity. It is a normal situation maintained by more basic population and rigid demand factors. Even if it is not so healthy, it has a huge fundamental support.

Let's finish the "soup" after eating the dishes, and see what Gao Shanwen said on the strategic conference.

Since 2011, the blue chip stocks have basically been "moving sideways". At that time, it was around 3200, and now it is still the same, and the valuation of growth stocks has been pushed up very high.

Bonds have taken a big bull market in general, but now this series of trends is ending.

The bond market will shift from a long-term bull market to a bear market, and the stock market may be turning to cattle, but the style of growth stocks and blue chips will be quite different from that of the past 5 years.

2017

It may turn from a long bear market to a bull market, and the bond market is pformed from a long bull market to a bear market. The reason for this turning point is not that capital flows into the stock market because of the regulation of real estate.

The most profound background of this turning point is that since the real estate bubble burst in 2011, the whole economy has slipped. Under this background, the basic trend of the stock market is that the blue chips are going sideways, the market is chasing growth stocks, and the bonds have gone out of a very good bull market, but now this trend is ending.

The domestic real estate market is quite different from almost all the countries and regions in the world.

The fundamental difference is that the land system in mainland China is state-owned, while in most countries and regions of the world, the land in the city is private.

The difference between the two is that the supply of land is competitive under the private system.

In other words, if the population continues to flow, the price of land will continue to rise. Under the condition that the land system is private, there will be a large number of land owners supplying their land in the market, trying to turn their land into residential land, or building more and more buildings on the residential land.

However, under the condition of public ownership of land, such a response mechanism does not exist. At least, such a response mechanism is not competitive.

For example, the proportion of residential land occupied by Beijing, Shenzhen and Hongkong accounts for about 20% of urban construction land.

This proportion is around 40% in London, New York, Seoul and Tokyo, some even as high as 57%.

Since 2012, the population has poured into large cities and mega cities.

Faced with the influx of population and demand, the willingness to supply land in big cities and megacities is very low.

Therefore, under the condition that the land supply can not respond, the pressure will be pformed into the increase of land price and the rise of house price.

You can only get the purchase qualification through a fake divorce.

It's very difficult.

But in this case, why housing prices have been rising? If bubbles are used to explain, it may be relatively superficial.

Once we study the flow of population and the supply of land, we will find that behind the so-called bubble there is a more profound distortion of the real estate market. This distortion comes from the fact that the supply of land is not competitive, and for many reasons, in large cities, the government generally does not want to make a lot of land supply. In this case, the land and housing prices are pushed to a very high level.

This supply is a precedent in Hongkong.

And this pressure of insufficient supply is showing vividly and round by the real estate market.

In the future, will Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen release a lot of land? In the future, will the population stop flowing into these cities? If the answers to these questions are negative, it is very difficult to expect housing prices to fall in these cities.

If prices do not go up, thank God.

If housing prices are higher than they are now, it should not be too strange.

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