Market Outlook: Future Financial Markets Will Further Release Risks

For this week's A share market performance, Expo researcher believes that investors should pay attention to the most important thing is to guard against risks.

On the one hand, the domestic regulatory environment and the return of international capital determine the future financial market (especially the stock market). There is still greater pressure. On the other hand, it is not a simple "market panic" to solve the problem of "entering the virtual" capital to enter the entity again.

Therefore, Expo researchers believe that the future financial market will further release the risk.

And in the process of releasing the risk, investors should be "shipping high" at this time.

In 2017, with all efforts to expand the supply side reform and comprehensively prevent and control financial risks, there is no big opportunity for the stock market, and there will be no big bull market.

However, in 1:9 and even 0.5:9.5's rare opportunity to make money, mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises is the most definitive opportunity.

In December 23rd, the SFC held a press conference:

1, the SFC and the Ministry of public security carry out special enforcement actions to crack down on the illegal use of undisclosed information pactions.

2, the SFC informed the securities company of the special inspection of investment banking business: the SFC ordered the 5 companies of the new era securities, Guoxin Securities, Guotai Junan to be corrected within a time limit, and issued a warning letter to 18 people.

3, the SFC issued the second batch of guidelines for the application of securities and futures investor education bases.

4, the CSRC will impose administrative penalties on 8 cases.

5, in view of the Zhou Guohai securities related bond paction events cause market concern, and may cause corresponding bond market risk.

Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the securities and Futures Commission, said that we should strengthen internal control, honesty and trustworthiness, carry out various businesses in accordance with the law, and maintain stable and healthy development of the market.

In view of this, Li Hongtu, chief economist of Expo finance, thinks that the following points are worth noting:

1, the risk of cross infection is rising, and regulators are alert to systemic financial risks.

Recently, the incident of Guo Hai securities radish chapter and the false guarantee letter of Zhejiang Merchants Property insurance cause the financial information management industry to fall into the vortex of law and morality.

At present, in the environment where regulators are seeking financial stability, the chaos of such resources will make the capital market lack credibility.

This will affect investors' investment sentiment and confidence.

If the bond market continues to have such a violation of professional ethics, it will make the bond market, stock market and other financial market areas.

Cross infection.

Both the recent Politburo meetings or the central economic work conference, the central authorities have stressed the need to guard against financial and economic risks and keep the bottom line from systemic risk.

With the increase of the discipline market in the bond market, many institutions have realized that the central bank will gradually withdraw the money from the central bank's tightening of liquidity.

Therefore, this also makes many capital management and investment institutions in the industry holding positions under the asset allocation of large categories, and may face the problem of shortage of funds.

Based on this, I believe that once these institutions accelerate the withdrawal of funds, the stock market or bond market will be extremely negatively affected.

Therefore, combating information management and investment banking does not exclude the frequent occurrence of cross infection incidents in the near future.

Therefore, the position of regulators is obvious that they want financial institutions to abide by discipline and not to violate the authority of credit and challenge supervision.

At present, we can see that recently, when the central bank's relevant officials announced the inclusion of the form outside the table, the central bank has clearly demonstrated the attitude of the central bank to pump water and reduce leverage.

Therefore, if such agencies frequently violate discipline, it is bound to affect the process of deleveraging by regulators, thus affecting the financial policy to be real.

This regular meeting will focus on two major businesses, namely, information management and investment banking.

It can be said that this Friday, the broker dealer smashed the plate has nothing to do with this (the SFC named 5 brokerages).

On the basis of the closing session, if there is no other benefit on the weekend, it is possible to fall again next Monday in the market, and the probability of reaching 3000 points is higher.

Along with the recent regulation and risk point, this year's ruling orientation has not changed, and by the end of the year, the researchers are still looking at it.

In the stock market, it is becoming more and more difficult to make money. If the losses become more and more serious, we must stick to it and make a long-term plan.

We do not advocate short term.

On the 23 day, Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the securities and Futures Commission, said that we should not test the law and advise the offenders to close their hands immediately and surrender to the public security organs for leniency.

Recently, regulators have not only played a "combined punch" for venture capital, but also been attracted by hot money in the A share market.

Xu Xiang's confession and gimmick of the "Wenzhou Gang" were investigated, Qianhai life was punished, and the CIRC inspection team was stationed in Qianhai and Hengda life insurance. These can be regarded as a heavy event in China's capital market. However, coincidentally, they are concentrated in the present.

This situation also verifies that the Expo researcher has always judged the will of supervision, that is, China's capital market is now going to have a stable downturn rather than a madness.

Since President Liu Shiyu denounced the barbarians, in December 7th, the CIRC has sent the inspection team to Shenzhen, and has been stationed in Hengda life and Qianhai life respectively.

Venture capital temporarily "retired" in the A share market.

The "Wenzhou Gang" of the hot money leader has been investigated, and it is also a deterrent to other speculative funds.

Xu Xiang pleaded guilty, and official sources pointed out that Xu Xiang and others used the "high delivery" scheme to make profits.

In our view, it is very likely that the hot plate at the end of last year will be turned into a "flare up" state.

No more funds, no potential hot spots, bear market smells.

Previously, in the index market after the national day, the Expo researcher has been insisting on the medium and long term bearish and A shares are not bull markets.

In the medium to long term, in the face of downward pressure on the economy, the suppression of asset bubbles, the further tightening of regulation and the constant release of credit risks, the future of the stock market is still unoptimistic.

After the brutal growth and tragic collapse of the A share market, it really needs to enter a process of recuperating, adjusting and restarting. This process requires a lot of work. Therefore, the requirement for the environment is "stability overriding" and launching again.

The probability is very low.

On the 23 day, Zhang Xiaojun, a spokesman for the securities and Futures Commission, said that the Joint Commission of public security of the SFC recently deployed special enforcement actions to manipulate the market with undisclosed information, and a number of cases will be dealt with.

This is the third special enforcement action of the SFC this year.

Since the beginning of this year, the SFC has moved 35 cases of using public information to manipulate market cases to the public security organs.

In order to ensure the effectiveness of the special action, we will establish a trinity model with the fund industry association. We will strengthen the work of administrative law enforcement and self-regulation, and build a comprehensive preventive system. Next, we will announce the progress of the special action in accordance with the investigation.

He said that he should not take the law in his own hands, advise the offenders to close their hands immediately, and surrender themselves to the public security organs for a lenient treatment.

Earlier, according to the daily economic news, the SFC deployed a special enforcement action against market manipulation illegal activities, which is another special enforcement action after the Commission's deployment of IPO fraud issuance and information disclosure special law enforcement action. The focus of this law enforcement is various market manipulation.

The last time the SFC conducted a special law enforcement market manipulation was in the 2015 SFC operation, focusing on the collusion between listed companies and manipulating stock prices with information superiority.

In 2015, the Ministry of public security not only dealt with major cases such as Xu Xiang and others suspected of manipulating the securities market and insider trading crimes, but also dealt with dozens of senior executives in securities, funds, insurance, information management and other industries.

In November 28, 2016, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Public Security jointly organized a training course for securities law enforcement cases in Shenzhen, and responded quickly to the new phenomena and problems emerging in the securities market. The five securities crime handling bases of the Liaoning provincial public security department have been formally identified.

At the same time, the Shenzhen Shanghai Stock Exchange recently issued new regulations to strengthen supervision over high delivery and pfer.

Among them, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the format of the high pfer announcement, clearly does not support the performance decline or loss companies to launch high pfer scheme; the Shanghai Stock Exchange said it will guard against market risks and curb speculative speculation as the focus of the recent information disclosure regulation. Among them, the "high pfer", equity pfer and information disclosure violations become the three major regulatory priorities.

What is the effect of this on the market? Although it is necessary to launch "high delivery" at the end of each year, but because of the "high delivery" itself, there are a lot of tricky problems. Under the framework of comprehensive supervision, if there is a case of "sending high" to manipulate the stock price and being investigated by the Ministry of public security and the SFC, it is bound to inhibit the speculation of the whole sector.

The leader of the stock market - if the high delivery is reversed, the difficulty of starting the stock market and the delay in starting time are extremely possible.

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