How Does China'S "Double Festival" Affect The Cotton Market?

In recent years, some spinning high spinning and spinning yarns in Henan, Anhui, Hebei and other places reflect that although the overall quality and spinnability of Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 are more obvious than that in 2015/16, the proportion of "double 29A", "double 30A" and "double 31A" is still relatively low. Especially, the cotton batches of three indicators of cotton picking value, breaking strength and length of the southern Xinjiang cotton do not meet the requirements of spinning 50S, 60S and above cotton yarn, and there are still some gaps between the high quality machine cotton picking such as cotton, C/A and so on. Most of the cotton soldiers in Northern Xinjiang meet three of the three indexes, so "Xinjiang cotton + imported cotton" is the only choice for spinning enterprises.

December Port Bonded 2016 SM cotton and SM Mei cotton inquiry and shipment faster, especially SM 1-3/16 ", SM 1 5/32 or even SM 1-1/8" Australia cotton have appeared "one ticket hard to find" phenomenon, several foreign businessmen actively from Southeast Asian ports (such as Klang, Mumbai, etc.) to coordinate the pfer of Hong Kong and Macao cotton spot to meet the needs of Chinese buyers.

From the survey point of view, although the United States cotton will arrive at the main port of China in 2016/17 from the end of December, the original shipment of cotton will be mainly EMOT, M/E and STX. C/A, SJV SG ACALA and other high quality and high spinnability cotton products will arrive in January after January. Therefore, some Chinese buyers and middlemen want to postpone the order, such as cotton and two import quotas.

The short term factors that have some impact on the ICE fundamentals are summarized as follows: 1. CCI opens the purchase,

Due to the outstanding role of the underpinning, the factory price of S-6, J34 and MCU5 increased slightly for two consecutive days. Two, recently, the Texas cotton region suffered thunderstorm weather, which had some impact on the seed cotton purchase and processing. However, from the feedback of some foreign businessmen and farms, the constraints on lint quality, shipping time and delivery were not great. Three, due to the influence of the new monetary policy in India, the progress of seed cotton sale was still slow (as of 12 months ago, the new cotton market in India broke 1 million 200 thousand tons). In order to alleviate the burden on farmers, the India Reserve Bank announced the extension of the crop loan repayment period recently, which has a stable interest in protecting farmers' interests and seed cotton and lint prices; four, due to the India cotton before the end of January, keeping pace with the market, India cotton growers and cotton ginning mills have been given a "reassurance".

The shipping time is tight, and the demand of Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries is "giving strength". Therefore, the intention of the ginning mill (cotton mill) and the export business will rise, which will more or less support the ICE disk.

The shipping price for 1/2 months is EMOT GC21-2-38 (29GPT), EMOT SM 1-5/32 (28GPT), EMOT SM 1-1/8 (SM), the price is concentrated at 82.20 cents / pound, 80.75 cents / pound, 80.25 cents / pound (quote), and the base of March turnover is 1250 points, 1100 points, 1050 points respectively.

Cotton Traders in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places reflect that since the end of December, domestic textile mills and middlemen ON-CALL have not been enthusiastic about signing contracts, and the turnover of US cotton (2/3 month) in the far month and 4/5/6 months in Australia are not active.

On the one hand, ICE's main contract continues to oscillate in the range of 69-73 cents / pound, EMOT

Not yet breaking 80 cents / pound, the buyer's expectation of March contract is less than 69 cents / pound, 68 cents / pound can not arrive; on the other hand, as the US dollar index has established the rise channel, the Federal Reserve raising interest rate is like ghosts, accompanying the RMB, facing a significant depreciation in place or the pressure of continuous depreciation, textile mills and importers are more cautious about signing cotton contracts in the far month.

A large international cotton trader also said that the "pre-sale" situation of 4/6 cotton shipping in Australia was not optimistic, which was more obvious than the expected high yield in 2017. The Chinese buyers did not plan to rush into the market when the exchange rate expected to fluctuate significantly, trade war between China and the United States would be launched (trade frictions with the EU, Japan and other countries were also increasing) and the acquisition of Australia cotton was still 3-4 months away.

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