Is New Retail The Gospel Or Trap Of The Real Economy?

The fickle market always lets people who fail to prepare well blindly follow the crowd. In economics, this phenomenon is interpreted as "herding effect", and the attack of the new retail concept has also triggered a herd effect in a certain range.

Ma Yun's view is that the future " New retail "Online and offline and logistics are combined to eliminate inventory and make inventory management better, so that the inventory of enterprises can be reduced to zero. However, Ma also left suspense on how to reduce inventories, reduce inventories, integrate real businesses and online businesses, and restructure the relationship between producers and consumers.

Whether the new retail is the gospel or trap of the real economy? The reporter used the integration of Alibaba and offline as the entry point. Alibaba In the past two years, the real economy has been stirred up by investing in M & A enterprises, occupying advertising sites and collecting offline data, and has not brought obvious gains to the real enterprises. On the contrary, the increase in investment income to Ali has been brought about.

Where does the M & a money flow go from multiple lines?

According to the world clothing and shoe net, between 2014 and 2015, Ali launched the two largest mergers and acquisitions, one is 5 billion 370 million Hong Kong dollars to buy Yintai business, the other is 28 billion yuan to participate in the Su Ningyun business.

Although the two cooperation bears the concept of O2O for Ali, the reporter learned from the open data that the integration of Ali and Yintai business and Suning did not reach the effect of online and offline integration, and there were two obvious changes in the flow of capital.

One is the slowdown in revenue growth of online and offline retail businesses, the other is the increase in investment income of Ali and Yintai business.

Among them, the slowdown is the sales revenue of Ali retail platform and the sales revenue of Yintai business.

Some media statistics on the Q1 quarter of 2013 to the Q3 quarter of 2015, Alibaba group's GMV growth trend. Data show that Alibaba doubled in the past 2 years, but the proportion of revenue has always maintained at 2.8% to 3.54% levels. GMV

The picture shows changes in GMV, revenue share and operating profit of Alibaba in 2013 ~2015.

In addition, Yintai business released the first 9 months' performance report in 2016. During the reporting period as of September 30th, the total amount of franchise sales and direct sales of all the stores in Yintai business decreased by 2.1% compared with the same period last year, and the same store sales fell 3.7%.

According to the world clothing and shoe net, the total sales volume of 23 franchised sales and direct sales declined, accounting for half of the 46 stores announced by Yintai business. Among them, the old stores that were established before 2010 are still poor and are generally facing losses. In the 19 stores opened before 2010, only Hangzhou Qingchun store and Ningbo Jiangdong store sales increased, the growth rate was 17.4% and 2% respectively, and the remaining 17 stores were all down, 9 stores had double-digit declines, and the stores in Shaanxi Xi'an bell tower were down 19.2%.

According to the world clothing shoes and hat net, in 2014 and 2015, the sales revenue of Yintai business is still in the growth stage.

On the contrary, the investment income of Alibaba and Yintai business increased year by year. In the third quarter earnings report released by Ali in 2015, the net profit of Alibaba attributable to ordinary shareholders was 22 billion 754 million yuan (about 3 billion 580 million US dollars), an increase of 665% over the same period. Behind the increase in net profit, it accounted for a large amount of interest and investment profits, which was worth 18 billion 150 million yuan (2 billion 856 million US dollars).

At the same time, Yintai business began to turn to light assets. According to the world clothing and shoe net, in November of this year, Yintai sold its stake in 8 projects, including China Yintai, Beijing Yintai, Ningbo Yintai and Ningbo Jin run. Chinese commercial real estate expert Wang Yongping believes that this is an important signal for Yintai to spanform from commercial real estate to investment direction.

Income from investment spanactions is actually a representative of the fictitious economy, while Alibaba and Yintai business are more likely to turn to investment trading than accidental factors.

According to the world clothing shoes and hats net, in the same period, domestic stock trading. market Also showed a sharp increase trend. According to the data of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, from March 2015 to June, 12, the Shanghai Composite Index, the SME board index and the gem index rose 54%, 75%, 93% respectively, and the average price earnings ratio of listed companies excluding banks and petroleum and petrochemical companies was 51 times, and the growth enterprise market was 142 times that of June. At this stage, it is wise to increase profits through investment.

The picture shows the stock spanaction volume between ten and 2005 to 2015.

Has Alibaba boosted the popularity of virtual economy to some extent, but it can be seen that the market value of Yintai business has dropped to HK $19 billion 94 million from HK $30 billion in 2007.

After making full profits in the investment market, Alibaba sold its stock in 2016. Among them, the largest shareholder of Ali, Softbank announced in 2016 May that it planned to sell nearly 7 billion 900 million dollars of Alibaba shares. Then, Ma plans to sell 9 million 900 thousand shares of Alibaba group in 12 months since September 2016. Then, the executive vice chairman of the board of directors of Alibaba, Cai Chongxin, also launched a stock reduction plan, which will sell 6 million 500 thousand shares before October 2017.

Is the real economy really bad?

According to the world's clothing and footwear net, 2015 is the year of the biggest retailing in the physical retail industry. According to statistics, in 2015, the department stores in China swept through 17 provinces, autonomous regions, 14 brands and 63 department stores.

In 2016, the customs shop continued. According to the understanding, Wanda Department Stores continued to close stores in 2016 after 46 stores in 2015, and the performance of Wanda Department store has been deleted from the annual report of Wanda.

Then, Parkson closed 6 shopping malls in 2016, followed by all the 10 stores in the mainland of China, and the real economy was collectively weakened.

According to the world clothing and shoe net, there are also special cases in these retail outlets, such as famous brand products, UNIQLO, IKEA and so on.

Among them, in 2016, the sales of famous and excellent products were close to 10 billion yuan, while the name brand products only started 3 years, becoming the 2016 year's growth trend of the entity industry.

In addition, IKEA group's 2015 earnings report showed that net income increased to 3 billion 500 million euros (about 24 billion 800 million yuan) compared with last year, and total sales revenue increased by 11.2% to 31 billion 900 million euros over last year. Despite the industry's indifference to the market, IKEA refreshed its record list in the Chinese market with sales of 10 billion 500 million yuan, and sales grew by more than 18%.

According to the world clothing shoes and hats net, IKEA group and the famous excellent products have not completely cut off the integration between online and offline, and all have entered the line in the form of official mall.

Alibaba CEO xiaoxiaozi believes that the new retail business is to rebuild business rules on line and line, change the relationship between commodity producers and consumers, and the relationship between commodity producers and service providers. But from the case of IKEA, UNIQLO and famous brands, the so-called "new retail" does not apply to all offline businesses.

Wu Xiaobo, a famous financial writer, analyzed the pattern of famous products, and said that the name of the best quality product had torn the last layer of paper, that is, the virtual price of the retail terminal price. One is the obsolescence and heavy of the channel, the two is the greedy control of the brand by the brand, and the two parts are knocked out, and the space of the price suddenly appears. The main point of competition may not be online or offline, but the distance between factories and shops.

Ye Guofu, the global co-founder of the famous and excellent product, said "despise Alibaba" when he faced the media. He thought that the new retail "Ma Yun" was the replacement of O2O. He predicted that a large scale of retail sales in the past 3-5 years began. From 2016, the electricity supplier will die in the next 3-5 years.

Ma Yun did not give a detailed description of what the future "new retailing" looks like at the cloud habitat conference, but reporters learned that Alibaba and Yintai are still trying to integrate new ways on line and online.

In December 2016, Alibaba and Yintai opened a new life shop online and offline, which is the life aesthetics of the new retail concept. According to Zhao Hongling, general manager of Yintai business, the location of this store is to get through the inventory and price of the flagship store of the entity store and Yintai department store, and achieve the same price on the same line.

Up to now, Alibaba has spent more than two years in the integration with offline, but there has not been much improvement. In 2015, the O2O experiential Museum, which was jointly launched by Alibaba and prime minister and Dangdang, died.

Following the Yintai business and Suning cloud merchants, Alibaba has also acquired entities such as Sanjiang's shopping, shares, and horses' fresh lives. In the dozens of senior executives interviewed by reporters, most of them said they could not understand "new retail" and took a wait-and-see attitude.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.