In The Past Year, The Domestic Cotton Market Has Experienced The Trend Of "V".

In 2015/2016, the domestic cotton market went through the "V" trend, and the market sentiment was optimistic from the extreme pessimism of the huge reserve cotton storage to the gap between supply and demand.

From a cyclical point of view, cotton prices were successfully built in 3 and April in 2016. When the global cotton inventory pressure was at its maximum, the new cotton cycle began to start, and the cotton price center of 2016/2017 will shift upward.

In 2016/2017, reserve cotton as a marginal variable has a huge impact on domestic cotton prices.

The development and Reform Commission announced that there will be no arrangement for the storage of cotton before the end of February 2017, and that the time of reserve cotton rotation will start in March 6, 2017 and the deadline will be temporarily set at the end of August.

In terms of funds, since 2016, the trend of commodities has been booming. Under the background of inflation expectations, financial products and index funds have increased their enthusiasm for the allocation of agricultural products.

On the international side, cotton supply and demand in China is somewhat loose.

Price has no obvious pulling effect.

USDA will increase the export volume of US cotton in 2016/2017 from 663 thousand tons to 2 million 656 thousand tons, an increase of 33.27%.

The US cotton maintains a long line of shock and expects the price range to be 65-80 cents / pound.

From the comparison of cotton spot price index and global end inventory, we can see that there is a significant negative relationship between them.

Starting from 2015/2016, China's stock reduction has led to the end of global inventory reduction, and the stage of global cotton market supply pressure has passed.

Domestic, 9-11 months in 2016, Xinjiang cotton listing postponed and capacity tension caused cotton.

Mismatch in time led to a marked increase in cotton prices in the early part of the year. But after the easing of pport capacity and the clear anticipation of the March cotton reserves, the supply pressure of cotton moved back and the sales pressure of cotton enterprises increased, so cotton prices in the later period lacked a sustained upward base.

According to research and data calculation, cotton supply is adequate before the cotton reserves are put into operation.

In 2016, the closing time of reserve cotton was at the end of September, and it was about 5 months from the cotton market in March 2017.

Cotton production is about 450-480 tons, cotton imports are about 400 thousand tons, cotton consumption is about 280-300 tons in the mainland, and Xinjiang textile enterprises have locked 1 million tons of cotton resources ahead of schedule. In the 5 month period, the supply and demand of cotton circulation market is over 1 million tons.

Within 5 months, domestic cotton supply exceeds demand, and the cotton market lacks the basis for sustained growth.

Comprehensive analysis shows that domestic cotton supply is adequate in 2016/2017, and cotton prices lack a sustained upward basis.

Under the background of supply and demand mismatch, cotton prices are rising rapidly at the beginning of the year, and the supply pressure of cotton market has shifted back.

At the same time, in the context of financial capital entering the market, cotton prices are hard to fall. The domestic cotton market will show an inverted "L" trend, and the price range is expected to be 14500-17500 yuan / ton.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.