The Spring Of Cotton Industry Is Approaching.

Recently, China's cotton market has seen a warming trend after years. Not only does cotton price rise, even cotton seeds and cotton yarns are ready to move. The market is more bullish voice, more atmosphere. It was a good start in 2017, and it was a spring step.

There are so many phenomena that we can sort out:

First, what is the bottom of cotton supply? Data show that in 2016, cotton output in the whole country was only 5 million 343 thousand tons (National Bureau of statistics data). Among them, the total output of Xinjiang is 3 million 594 thousand tons, and the total output of the mainland is 534.3-359.4=174.9 million tons. However, many market participants believe that the mainland's output should be overestimated this year. According to the the Yellow River River Basin, Yangtze river basin The production and production of cotton are estimated to be below 1 million tons in the mainland this year. In this case, the supply of cotton in this year should be down from 12%-15% last year.

Second, what is the demand for cotton? After the Spring Festival of 2017, there was a strange phenomenon in the market: enterprises, cotton traders and trading companies returned to work very actively. According to the feedback from many textile enterprises in Hebei, Hebei and Shandong, most of the enterprises are returning to work from the six to the early eighth of this month, and most of them are at full load. In February 7th, although the supply of raw materials for textile enterprises has not yet been launched in a large scale, some enquiries and commodities have been bustling up.

According to feedback from textile manufacturers, according to the quantity of cotton used in cotton production in 2016, it is estimated that cotton will be more than 9 million tons in 2017, with an average monthly output of 750 thousand tons, with a larger gap between supply and demand.

Third, National cotton reserves What is the situation of the rotation? Generally speaking, the most uncertain factor for cotton in 2017 is that the national cotton mill is out. According to the circular reserve notice, the amount of 30 thousand tons per day is about 23 working days per month, that is to say, the maximum monthly output of 23 x 3=69 million tons (without calculating the racket, the state does not increase the amount of sunrise storage), is basically the same as last year's situation, and allows traders to participate in the auction.

There are two situations to be concerned about: 1, traders rush to shoot and hoard. In that case, the actual number of cotton in the hands of spinning enterprises may not be optimistic. 2, how about the quality of national cotton reserves? Whether we can guarantee the demand of textile enterprises or whether we can fully meet the demand? We need to make a big question mark.

Fourth, what will China's cotton output be in 2017? 2016 cotton The reduction of production is already landing. What about 2017? According to the feedback from cotton farmers in Xinjiang and the mainland, there was a slight increase in the area in 2017, but the situation of cotton sowing is hard to "reverse". Cotton farmers who have abandoned cotton in the mainland are also hard to come back. Therefore, it is estimated that cotton output will increase in 2017, but the gap between supply and demand is still unquestionable.

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After the Spring Festival, driven by the sharp rise in cotton prices, Zheng cotton broke through 16000 yuan per ton, and the domestic cotton market kept up with the high price. Cotton traders are relatively active and bullish. However, there are still divergent views on the market. Although the yarn mill started earlier, the inventory is still low, but the replenishment is not firm enough, and there is still hesitation.

Downstream cotton yarn market, according to price monitoring shows that in February 7th, 21S high knitting pure cotton yarn price in 22600-24500 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month rose 0.37%. Driven by the rise of cotton prices, cotton yarn prices rose, according to a feedback from a factory in Shandong, 16 years of cotton textile mill profit is good, this year started earlier, more confidence in the market. In recent years, the price of foreign sand has been rising, to a certain extent, to promote domestic cotton consumption.

Foreign cotton prices rise, driving domestic cotton prices, while small and medium cotton textile enterprises, intermediaries resume work, resume production, cotton, cotton yarn, gray cloth and other raw materials demand for short support, driving cotton prices. Generally speaking, short term domestic cotton market is good, and short term growth is expected.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.