Stock Market Outlook: Next Week'S Target 3230 Or More?

Low cardinality is an important factor leading to the explosive growth of imports and exports. For the domestic capital market, we still maintain the view that corporate profits will improve and the long-term healthy bull market will remain unchanged.

For the domestic capital market, we still maintain the view that corporate profits improve and the long-term healthy bull market remain unchanged, which is the most definite in 2017.

Opportunity.

Deng Haiqing pointed out that low cardinality is an important factor leading to the explosive growth of imports and exports, but it is not the only reason.

The actual growth rate of excluding base factors is also very high.

If we consider the simplest method to eliminate the base factor, the export growth rate should be about 7% a year, and the import growth rate should be around 15%, which is higher than the import and export in December (1% in December and 11% in imports).

It is noteworthy that China

The growth rate was higher than export growth for 6 consecutive months, reversing the situation that imports in 2014 were significantly weaker than exports in -2016, indicating that the inflection point of economic L has passed.

In the 2014-2016 years, "both the import and export decline, the import decline is even greater", and now it is the best data combination.

In the short term, after the market has stabilized 3160 points, there will be a chance to concussion around the 3150-3230 interval. The 3200 and the above are the intensive hold up areas near the end of last November to early December. The probability of direct breakthroughs here is not great. Only after repeated shocks in this area, can the market be able to break through slowly. So, the short term market will take the axis near 3185 points, and the high risk areas with more than 3185 points should pay attention to local risks.

Looking back to the rebound before the festival, the two cities rebounded sharply in January 16th, and then continued to shrink back on this basis.

It can be seen that this rebound has experienced the process of shrinking from volume to volume, indicating that the rebound process has been completed and we do not know how to follow it.

Stock index will enter short term intensive pressure area, also from 3044 points.

Since the pressure zone, to see the decline of 3301 to 3044 points in the small band market, the 0.618 position of its anti smoking is about 3203. Personally, we can refer to the 3195/3203 area with reference to the K-line map, then it can be further extended. Now it is not clear yet. If the short-term operation is needed, it will still be a stock market, and only a partial weight force should observe the performance of the securities and banking stocks.

From the trend, imports and exports all showed a trend of warming since September 2016. It is estimated that the growth rate of imports and exports will continue to maintain a super high level in February. After March, the growth rate of imports and exports will obviously decrease as a result of the base number, but the growth rate of imports and exports in 2017 will be significantly higher than that in 2016.

The main reasons are: first, the continuous improvement of the developed countries' economy, which shows that the PMI of the developed countries keeps going up; two, the domestic demand is better than the market expectation, and the market overestimates the influence of the real estate regulation on the economy.

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