Will The "Surge" Situation Of Imports And Exports Continue?

Import and export growth has achieved double-digit growth both in two years.

The data released by the General Administration of Customs on 10 may show that in January, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2 trillion and 180 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% over the same period.

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 270 billion yuan, an increase of 15.9%; imports of 911 billion 170 million yuan, an increase of 25.2%.

There is a Spring Festival factor in January this year. According to the Convention, the economic data at the beginning of the year are seasonally disturbed, so it is not representative.

Whether the expected growth can continue or not will also be analyzed in combination with the data of 2 and March.

"The import and export data in January are encouraging, reflecting a" good start "situation in 2017.

Pan Jiancheng, deputy director of China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that such a relatively obvious rise in import and export in January has two reasons: international and domestic.

From the international point of view, the global economy showed a relatively clear trend of recovery recently. The global order index in December reached 53.8%, becoming the highest data in 2016.

Global PMI also reached the highest 52.7% in the year.

This represents a sign that the recent economic growth is indeed showing signs of recovery from a global perspective.

Wang Jun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the foreign trade data in January were far beyond expectations, mainly related to three factors: first, the cumulative depreciation of the renminbi was larger, and the boost to foreign trade showed that two was related to the recovery of European and American markets. Three, China's policy of stabilizing foreign trade and promoting the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade last year showed that the comprehensive competitive advantage of China's foreign trade was obvious, leading to a surge in imports and exports in January.

In January, one of the important reasons for the obvious growth of China's foreign trade is the rise in the price.

According to statistics, in January, China's export prices rose 15.9% over the same period, and import prices rose by 25.2% over the same period last year.

Commodity prices rose significantly. In January, prices of iron ore, crude oil and coal rose by 81.3%, 46.7% and 110% respectively.

In addition to price increases, import and export volume is also increasing. In January this year, China imported 92 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 12%, 34 million 30 thousand tons of crude oil, an increase of 27.5%, 24 million 910 thousand tons of coal, an increase of 64.4%, and 1 million 90 thousand tons of steel, an increase of 17.7%.

Xu Yang, an analyst with state securities, thinks that in January, the main reason for data catching up is that commodity prices are rising and demand is picking up to boost exports.

Because of the earlier spring festival this year, China's exports in January were slightly affected by the dislocation of holidays.

In addition, commodity prices are substantially higher than the same period last year, resulting in a rise in volume and price.

In addition, in the fourth quarter of last year, China's economy was stronger, GDP growth exceeded expectations, and domestic demand continued to drive imports.

Moreover, last year's low base also had a larger support for import year-on-year.

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Sensitive times, according to reporters, the trade surplus with the US in January is expanding.

Customs data show that in January, China exported 233 billion 980 million yuan to the United States, an increase of 17.2%; imports from the United States increased by 86 billion 90 million yuan, an increase of 36.7%; the trade surplus with the United States increased by 147 billion 890 million yuan and 8.2%.

As for the Sino US trade surplus, Xu Yang thinks that the trade surplus will be narrowed in the future.

The reason is that the trade surplus temporarily benefited from a substantial increase in export volume, ahead of imports.

But after the Spring Festival, the continuous improvement of domestic demand will be a big probability event, which will lead to the narrowing of the future trade surplus.

Customs data also showed that in January this year, the leading index of China's foreign trade was 39, up 1.6 from last December.

Third consecutive months to maintain a rebound trend.

Huang Songping, director general of the General Statistics Department of the General Administration of customs, pointed out that in January, China's foreign trade export index continued to rise, and initially judged that China's export pressure is expected to ease in the two quarter of this year.

For the whole year of 2017, Pan Jiancheng pointed out that we should not take lightly because of the "good start" in January.

The environment of China's exports in 2017 may be even more difficult than that in 2016. Although the export figures in January seem to be much stronger than in 2016, there may be more difficulties in the whole year.

Gradually entering the implementation stage, its impact can not be underestimated.

The international trade policy of the new US government may undergo tremendous changes. This change will undoubtedly have a greater impact on our import and export.

Another point is that it is unlikely that the renminbi will depreciate again as much as it did in 2016. In this case, the effect of devaluation will not be so great for exports.

In many ways, the export pressure in 2017 is still enormous.

"We need to take a sober and rational view of the January foreign trade data, unswervingly take our own road, unswervingly push forward the structural reform of the supply side, consolidate the vitality of our enterprises, enhance the international competitiveness of our entire economy, including enterprises, increase the intensity of innovation driven and the proportion of imports and exports of technology products, so that our foreign trade can be upgraded and healthily developed in the pformation."

Pan Jiancheng pointed out.

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shen Wan Hongyuan, said that China's trade account data in January were beyond expectations, mainly due to the impact of the Spring Festival rush and so on, and the structure was worthy of attention. All types of exports were in full bloom and the traditional export performance was better. However, whether this represents the trend of the whole year, or whether we should observe the following data, still think that the level of foreign trade can be maintained at the level of last year has been very good, because the bottom of the world economy is fluctuating; Japan's European and US economy is better now, but there will be downward pressure on the future; trade protection is still growing; in the two quarter of last year, China entered the replenishment cycle period, based on the past 9-12 months' experience of inventory replenishment, imports will continue to be good to the end of the two quarter.

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