The Retail Era Is Coming To An End. It'S Hard To Make Money Directly.

On the basis of "stability" and "strictness", 2017 will be more prominent.

This "entering" mainly includes two meanings: the first is expansion; the second is institution building, strengthening supervision and opening to the outside world.

Liu Shiyu, chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, led three vice chairmen to the press conference of the Information Office of the State Council, setting the tone for this year's China stock market.

In fact, this is what I have repeatedly predicted in this column: with the property market in winter, 2017

Steady growth will mainly depend on "big infrastructure +PPP".

As an important aid, the stock market should play the role of direct financing, one is to "reduce leverage", and the two is to raise funds for the real economy.

The "vase age" of A shares must end. It must keep pace with the times and keep pace with the pformation of China's economy, and become the main force of "social financing", not the marginal people. (A share financing accounted for only 8.4% of the social financing amount in 2016).

At the press conference, this trend was revealed:

In summing up the work in 2016, President Liu Shiyu provided a set of figures.

1, last year, 280 companies passed the IPO audit, 248 enterprises completed IPO, financing about 163000000000 yuan.

2, listed companies raised more than 1 trillion and 340 billion yuan in refinancing last year.

3, 261 mergers and acquisitions approved by the audit, through mergers and acquisitions to increase the capital strength of listed companies about 980000000000 yuan;

4, the new three board listed companies doubled, and at the end of the year, they surpassed 1, and the financing was over 139 billion 100 million yuan.

5, the exchange bond market increased by a net increase last year, corporate bonds raised more than 2 trillion and 700 billion yuan.

To tell you the truth, this score is still better than the A share itself, but it is far from the need for economic pformation.

When it comes to work in 2017, Liu Shiyu emphasized the "progress" on the basis of "stability" and "severity".

He talked about the expansion of new shares in great detail. The main points are as follows:

It is true that some people worry that the large quantity and intensity of IPO may affect the two tier market. In the past, when the downward pressure of the capital market was bigger, we also used the method of suspending or reducing IPO to stabilize the market, relieve the downward pressure, and achieve the effect of timing.

But in the long run, the effect is not good, because there is no mechanism to solve the long-term stability of the capital market. It does not solve the problem of the source of living water in the capital market, and does not solve the problem of capital market serving the real economy.

In the short term, the issuance of new shares will increase the demand and supply of the two tier market at a certain time, but at the same time, it will also improve the market P / E ratio.

From a dynamic perspective, the fundamental driving force of the capital market is to share the fruits of the development of the real economy, and to serve the real economy. A capital market that is divorced from the development level of the real economy will not last long.

In order to stay longer, new companies must come in. New companies will automatically increase market liquidity and bring incremental capital, because the value of the investment is increasing and the confidence of the whole society will be enhanced.

Liu Shiyu also used the pearl necklace worn by female reporters to compare the capital market and expansion.

In my opinion, reform, stability and development must be coordinated in all directions. Good pearls should be good quality companies. The number of pearls should be enough, that is, the number of listed companies will increase. When wearing necklaces, they will be strong at any time. The line must be solid and solid, that is, our basic system should be solid and the direction of reform should be correct.

From the above statement, we can see that the expansion will be the biggest theme of A shares in 2017, and the refinancing of listed companies will be tightened, and the number of IPO households will increase.

In fact, this is also well understood. Due to the existence of government regulation, A shares now have "approval premium" (or "shell value"), which means dividend policy.

Then the dividend should be divided equally, and some enterprises should not be given many times.

But on the other hand, Liu Shiyu stressed at the press conference that "smart people should avoid falling" and maintain market stability.

That is to say, although the expansion is the main keynote, it will not "expand violence", but look at the market bearing capacity and adjust the expansion speed dynamically.

At the press conference, Liu Shiyu again mentioned "barbarian", "goblin", "harmful person essence", "big crocodile" and so on.

A reporter asked, "who is the capital predator and who is the barbarian at the door?"

Liu Shiyu's answer is: tell you how to work next.

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the SFC, expressed his hope.

It can be included in the Ming Sheng index as soon as possible.

For highly sensitive international boards, Fang Xinghai believes there are technical barriers and there is no timetable.

A few years ago, the Shanghai stock exchange was preparing to launch the international board. To be honest, in the case of the current A shares' approval premium, allowing foreign companies to issue shares to China is actually robbery of Chinese shareholders, which only allows A shares to collapse.

Including the return of China stocks, I have always been opposed.

Except for a few people who need to return to the needs of national security, others are totally unnecessary.

Now, the first step is to run away from capital (the need to repurchase shares overseas), and the two is to loot domestic investors (many of them are super market and need a lot of capital to undertake).

To tell you the truth, the essence of this news conference is to tell investors: China's stock market must go in.

In fact, it is well understood that the state's stock market must not be for the sake of investors, but for economic development.

At present, China's debt ratio is so high (the highest in the world), the economic development mode is facing pformation, and under the pressure of the real economy, it is necessary for the stock market to play its role.

It is necessary to move towards the era of printing stocks from the era of banknote printing.

The so-called "banknote printing era" refers to the main mode of China's economic growth over the past 10 years, that is, the mode of "currency excess + real estate + urbanization + big infrastructure"; the so-called "printing stock era" is "IPO registration + real market economy mechanism + public innovation, universal Entrepreneurship + real economic revival".

In other words, IPO registration will come sooner or later.

It is to welcome this era.

Over the past year, market supervision has been strengthened, and the word "strict" has been fully reflected.

It is said that Liu Shiyu is bringing the stock market into the era of "undeclared war registration".

In fact, this is his wisdom.

For ordinary shareholders, we should fully understand the changing trend of the times and the general trend of development.

Under the heading of "entering", the partial bubble of A shares will burst.

Overall, the main board market bubble is not large, and the vast majority of gem and small and medium board stocks will be the most dangerous assets.

As for this year's A shares, under the pressure of expansion pressure and tightening monetary policy, it is difficult to have a trend market.

That is to say, the Shanghai stock index does not have much room.

But around the "big infrastructure +PPP", mixed change, second wave capacity, state-owned enterprises horizontal joint, debt to equity, big consumption and other policy dividends, there will be structural market.

On the whole, the retail era is coming to an end, and it will be harder for ordinary people to sell stocks directly.

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