How Can We Achieve This Year'S GDP Growth Target?

As the second largest economy in the world, China's economy passed the test of the opening year of 13th Five-Year in 2016. The overall operation was stable. GDP grew by 6.7% over the previous year, and the quality of economic growth steadily improved.

As one of the important tools of macroeconomic regulation and control, the trend of monetary policy has always attracted much attention.

With the pformation and upgrading of China's economy,

The regulation idea is also changing quietly.

Recently, the central bank issued the "fourth quarter of 2016 China monetary policy implementation report", the first time the expression of monetary policy from "robust" to "robust neutral".

The market has speculated about the difference between the two words, and what signals the central bank is trying to release.

Before that, the central bank was right.

The adjustment has gradually changed to regulate liquidity by strengthening the frequency and intensity of open market operations.

Aiming at a series of recent changes in the central bank, Ding believes that the tone of monetary policy in 2017 will be "moderate tightening" - which will be expressed as interest rates upward and the entire yield curve upward.

At the same time, the traditional interest rate adjustment with administrative color will fade out.

"In the future, the central bank should try not to use administrative monetary policy, instead of facilitating market interest rates through standing lending facilities, medium term lending facilities and reverse repurchase."

According to his calculations, in the past few months, the central bank has actually changed the interest rate by 10 basis points.

Under the pressure of economic downturn and the superposition of deleveraging and prevention of financial risks, many market participants believe that the future monetary policy will play a limited role.

So how can we achieve this year's goal of steady progress? Ding believes that economic growth in the future may be more dependent on fiscal policy.

"From the aggregate budget deficit will continue to increase."

This is also a necessary policy support for achieving growth goals. "

According to Standard Chartered Bank, GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6% in 2017, slightly above 6.5%.

In terms of specific measures, Ding believes that there will be impulses to increase economic growth in the short term, but in the long run, positive fiscal policy is expected to produce great effects.

Real estate investment is an important aspect of China's economy, and the ups and downs of the property market will always affect people's nerves.

Not long ago, the official data released showed that under the double influence of the regulation and control policy superimposed on the Spring Festival, the price of newly built commercial housing in China's second tier cities in January basically rose. The price of new commercial housing in the three line cities rose by 0.4%, the same as last month.

At the same time, the area of China's main cities in January decreased by 36.66%, down 27.34% compared to the same period last year.

What will be the cold spell of the property market in the beginning of the year? Will house prices cool down? Will real estate investment go down? What kind of test will this bring to China's economy facing downward pressure? "In 2017, there will not be a significant increase in housing prices and there is no significant reduction in conditions, which is likely to be a relative" stagnation "situation.

Ding Shuangru thought.

When it comes to the impact on the economy, Ding said he did not need to be pessimistic.

"The main goal of housing regulation is to prevent property prices from rising too fast and see a more stable investment in the real estate market.

It's not about letting housing prices drop by 20% or 30%.

In fact, data show that real estate investment remained strong last December.

According to the website of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2016, the national real estate development investment amounted to 102581 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the previous year (the actual growth rate of 7.5% was deducted from the price factor), and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 1-11 months.

This shows that the tightening effect of real estate policy since last nine and October has not yet been pmitted to investment.

However, Ding Shuang does not deny the possibility of real estate investment falling in the second half of the year.

"It is likely that investment is still strong in the first half of this year and the relative downturn in the second half of the year.

From the annual average, the negative impact of real estate investment on economic growth will not be great.

Ding Shuang also admitted that taking into account the decline in real estate pactions, will affect the consumption of some related industries, including furniture, home appliances, the purchase of decoration materials and so on, so there are still some risk points to note.

In addition, Ding Shuang also believes that due to our earlier tax overdraft for vehicles under 1.6 litres, some of the demand for car purchases has had an impact on car sales this year.

Therefore, the uncertainty of overall consumption has been enhanced.

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