PTA Adjustment Market Near The End Is Expected To Usher In A New Round Of Rebound.

PTA futures jumped again, and the market was filled with panic.

But in the light of the fundamental evolution of the late period and the release of potential positive effects, we believe that the PTA adjustment market is coming to an end.

In the 2 quarter of the Hengli 3# and Yisheng Dalian PTA plant parking inspection background, it is estimated that PTA social inventory including warehouse receipts will slow down, corresponding futures high positions and warehouse receipts pressure will resolve itself.

Overall, the late PX device will enter a large-scale overhaul period, which will strongly push the PTA cost end. The seasonal improvement of PTA factory maintenance and terminal demand will also drive PTA into the inventory cycle.

The market is coming to an end.

In March, the implementation rate of OPEC and Russia's crude oil production will be further improved. Even if the United States has the potential to increase production under the current oil price level, according to the increase rate of 100 thousand barrels per day per month, the growth potential of crude oil supply will reach 300 thousand barrels per day in the middle of the year.

At present, the global demand for crude oil market is underestimated. Then the United States will lead the global market to usher in a seasonal demand recovery period, corresponding to the seasonal growth of demand by 2 million barrels per day, and the supply and demand of the international crude oil market will be more balanced in the year.

At the same time, OPEC's benchmark for international oil prices is expected to be at the level of $55-60 per barrel of Brent crude oil. If the international crude oil market is not effectively digested in the first half of the year, or the international oil price is still relatively low, then the OPEC oil producing countries will be very likely to postpone the freeze production agreement. At that time, the upgrading of the international oil price will rise again.

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In other words, the Asian market, including China, ushered in a new round of production capacity in 2017. But in the first half of the year, only a set of 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment that India trusted to go into operation at the end of last year could operate normally. In the first half of this year, the new PX capacity in Asia was relatively limited.

In the spring of 2017, after the continuous high load operation, Asia PX ushered in the tide of 7 million tons of equipment maintenance. Compared with the about 4000000 ton PTA capacity maintenance plan in China, the total capacity of the PX device overhaul was more and the maintenance period was longer. This will aggravate the tight supply situation of PX in spring, and it is expected that PX prices will continue to oscillate.

In 2016, domestic PTA plants were fully powered to reduce units.

In particular, the seasonal factors such as the Spring Festival and the new year made the PTA factory operation rate rise to a two-year high of 78%. After deducting 13 million 200 thousand tons of long term inefficient idle production capacity, the PTA devices that could basically be opened were full or even overloaded.

After the Spring Festival, Yisheng Ningbo and Ya Dong Petrochemical have been overhauled and restarted. In the maintenance of Jialong Petrochemical Company, Yizheng petrochemical and Tianjin Petrochemical plan to repair 4-5 months. Hengli 3 and Yisheng Dalian accumulated 5 million 950 thousand tons of equipment with maintenance expectations.

The supply of PTA in China will decline in the 3-5 months before the Spring Festival.

In terms of inventory, the current PTA social stock mainly focuses on the delivery warehouse of the exchange and appears in the form of warehouse receipts. Although the current warehouse receipt volume is at a record high, about 500000 tons of them are Yisheng's credit warehouse receipts, and the rest of the warehouse receipts are held by the large traders in China World Trade Center and Xiangyu as the asset pool, and make the basis arbitrage paction through the PTA warehouse and futures market. This method has become a profitable means for the mainstream traders. As long as there is a long-term rise, it will move to the warehouse for a long time, and will continue to operate in the far months, and it will not be delivered in due course. Later, it can pay attention to the expansion of the contract in September.

In 2017, the polyester plant had 4 million 200 thousand tons of capacity to plan and put into operation, of which nearly 3 million tons were put into operation in the first half year, and the raw material stock of the new polyester plant will enlarge the demand of PTA.

At the same time, during the Spring Festival, nearly 8 million tons of polyester production capacity had been stopped for maintenance, and the polyester plant operating rate dropped to 75% level. However, in the early March, the polyester operating rate has risen to 86.8% historical highs, and the terminal weaving start rate has also rapidly recovered to 79% high level, overlaying the terminal demand release under the background of global economic recovery. We expect that the polyester start-up load will remain at 85% above the high level, thus forming strong support for PTA demand.

On the other hand, the demand for PTA warehouse receipts by new trade subjects is very large.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.