Capital Is Facing A Huge Test, Bond Market Is Still Shaking.

Funds are being tested.

In February, CPI fell sharply, but PPI reached a new high. In the 1-2 months, both industries and investment rebounded. The recent rise in housing prices and the rapid growth of the stock market were also seen. The central bank once again raised the interest rate of mobile instruments, the monetary policy continued to be tight, and the first MPA examination was strictly or strictly regulated at the end of the quarter.

The 7 day repurchase rate is maintained at 3%.

Trading opportunities need to be stepped up.

The current interest rate debt allocation value is still high, trading opportunities need to step on the spot, the first window period is last week, the Fed raised interest rates expected to meet the window period, the follow-up interest rate sharply downward space is not big.

The second window period comes from regulatory landing, and the game window can be traded after landing.

The third window comes from the economic fundamentals, and the time may be in the three quarter. We need to pay close attention to the meso data indicators.

The bond market is still volatile.

Short-term economic stability, financial leverage is still

The main tone will continue to be tight monetary policy.

In the short run, it is doubtful that the bond market will continue to rise due to the anticipated cashing. It is necessary to guard against the impact of MPA, inter industry supervision and information management policies on the bond market, and maintain the judgement of short-term bond market shocks, and predict the 3.1-3.5% interest rate interval of 10 years.

1) the interbank deposit certificate is introduced, and the scale is growing rapidly.

In December 2013, the central bank issued the Interim Measures for the management of interbank deposit certificates, and the 5 interbank deposit certificates issued by the workers and peasants in Zhongjian and Guo Kai 22 billion.

Over the past 3 years, the scale of interbank deposit has expanded continuously. The scale of issuance has increased from about 260000000000 in June to 1 trillion and 950 billion in February 17, and the net amount of financing has also increased from 30 billion to 17 in February and about 950000000000 in February.

At present, the balance of interbank deposits is around 7 trillion and 500 billion.

2) small and medium-sized banks have gradually become the main issue of certificates of deposit.

Interbank deposit certificates are standardized for interbank deposits, with good liquidity. They are included in bonds payable at the liabilities side instead of "interbank liabilities". They are not subject to the constraint that the ratio of 127 interbank liabilities is less than 1/3 of the total liabilities. Therefore, interbank deposit certificates are highly favored by commercial banks, especially small and medium-sized banks.

After 14 years and 5 months, city merchants and farmers were listed as eligible issuers. The proportion of small and medium sized banks was increasing, and 55.77% in February 17.

3) the current issuance period has been shortened.

Interbank deposit certificates issued in 16 years, 3-6 months and more than 6 months have been issued. The average amount of certificates of deposit issued in 6 and 12 months is 25% and 23%, respectively. In the 3 months, the share of the certificates of deposit is about 40%.

Since the 17 quarter of the 1 quarter, the issuance period has been significantly shortened, and the share of the single issue of memory accounts for 70% of the total circulation in 3 months.

4) interbank deposit certificates account for banks.

The proportion of ends increased year by year.

In the face of the loss of foreign exchange and the prudence of the central bank's capital investment, the characteristics of banks' active debt through certificates of deposit have become increasingly evident since the 4 quarter of 16.

From March 14 to February of 17, the proportion of interbank certificates of deposit accounts for the issuance of debt liabilities of banks increased from 0.35% to 35.31%, and the proportion of total liabilities of banks increased from 3.13% to 3.13%, which means that banks are still struggling to maintain their balance sheets, and financial leverage is a long way to go.

Primary market: issue increment, tender differentiation.

Last week, the scale of issuance of government bonds and treasury bonds declined slightly, and local debt issuance was heavy.

The winning rate of treasury bonds is higher than that of the two market level, and the interest rates of the export bonds, the State bonds and the agricultural bonds are divided, and the subscription multiplier is good.

Last week, Treasurys issued 30 billion of treasury bonds, 70 billion 900 million of government bonds, 147 billion 300 million of local bonds, and 248 billion 200 million of interest rate debt, which was nearly 1 times higher than the previous week.

Two tier market: long interest rate ends, short end.

Last week, the Fed raised interest rate expectations and short-term economic data at the same time at the same time, the bond market appeared to be a false start, long bond yields down, short bond yields upward.

Specifically, the 1 - year treasury bonds go up 4BP to 2.86%, 1 - year national debt rises to 17BP to 3.5%, 10 - year treasury bonds downwards 10BP to 3.31%, and 10 - year bonds open 12BP to 4.09%.

The trend of change and premium rate in bull bear: at present, the regulations governing the issuance of securities in the convertible bond market have been implemented since May 2006. The stock market in May, 06 years ago, has experienced 3 rounds of bull market, 3 round bear market and 3 round shock market.

In the bull market, positive stocks promote the rise of convertible bonds, a large number of coupons trigger redemption, and the premium rate of stock conversion remains at a low level. In the bear market, the price of convertible bonds decreases with parity. However, because of the redemption of the initial convertible bonds and the scarce stock of the convertible bonds, the conversion rate is smaller than the positive shares, which makes the premium rate go up sharply. In the shock market, the price of the convertible bonds is supported by the value of the debt and the value of the convertible bond respectively. With the gradual increase of supply, the convertible bond valuation is worth continuing to be compressed.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.