Stocks, Bonds, The Two Cities To Make The Best Of Light, Is Conducive To The Continuation Of The Latter Market.

The interest rate warning was finally lifted and the "two sessions" were successfully concluded.

Last Friday, the market fell ahead of the week. We need to pay attention to the support of the 3230 points.

In response, there is institutional analysis that the market's return to its own trajectory is worth looking forward to.

The performance of the market can be analyzed back to the technical side.

On the 16 day, the market index jumped to a higher level, and the market broke through 3250 points in the short term, and also hit a new high this year.

On the whole, the market is out of date, and the light market is conducive to the continuation of the latter market.

On the morning of March 16th,

Press "fast forward key" to announce interest rate increase.

This is the third increase in interest rates since the financial crisis and the Fed's first interest rate increase this year.

Regarding this, Zhang Bowei, a strategy researcher of the Chinese business fund, said that the description of core inflation showed that the Fed did not worry too much about inflation. The wording of the statement dispelled the short-term worries of the market.

Reflected in the domestic market, at present, the characteristics of stock debt double cattle are difficult to sustain and maintain a prudent judgement in the medium term.

At present, the macro level does not have the basis of "stock debt double cow". In the short term, the A share index is relatively high relative to the bond market.

After the rise of the interest rate "boots", the short-term financial market shocks,

Sharply lower, gold stocks rebounded, and US bond yields fell significantly.

Xuan Wei, chief strategist of the Huaxia Fund, believes that the interest rate hike is higher than expected at the beginning of the market, but two weeks ago, with the Fed officials constantly blowing the market, the effect of raising interest rates has been reflected in asset prices.

The decision to raise interest rates once again confirms the improvement and improvement of the economic fundamentals of the United States, and the trend of recovery is confirmed.

At present, the market generally expects the fed to raise interest rates 3 times during the year. Judging from the current situation, the core inflation level that the Fed has focused on is limited (which is still below 2%). The risk of increasing interest rate or shrinking the schedule too fast (over 3 risks) is generally small. It is expected that the US dollar index will reach the peak stage and the depreciation pressure on the RMB against the US dollar will be eased.

Globally, the European economy has gradually recovered, especially in Germany and France, and European monetary policy has been tightening at the same time. But the global fundamentals are generally sound and systemic risk is not large.

Yang Delong, the Qianhai open source fund, said the US Federal Reserve

It should be said that the market has been fully anticipated before.

The stock market has fully reflected the interest rate hike before, and it did not exceed the expectations of investors.

After Trump took office, he was very unhappy with the US trade deficit.

There were also rumors that Trump might press the fed to reduce the rate of increase in interest rates, but Yellen said the Fed was independent and not affected by political pressure.

But if the United States wants to maintain its export growth and reduce its trade deficit, it is bound to reduce the rate of increase in interest rates, so it will maintain a maximum of two interest rates throughout the year.

Now the Federal Reserve looks forward to raising interest rates more frequently, in order to give investors an expectation that funds will continue to flow into the US market.

However, judging from the performance of the US stock index and the US dollar index, it will not raise interest rates for at least a short time. The probability of raising interest rates in June should not be very large.

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