PTA Is In The Stage Of Rebound. Cost Side Support Remains.

As the price of PTA and MEG of the main raw materials dropped back, and the accumulation of pet products accumulated before and after the Spring Festival, the profits of the mainstream products decreased significantly in recent years, and the willingness to start the polyester factories became somewhat loose. The operating rate dropped slightly by about 1 percentage points recently. However, with the coming of the peak season, the demand for terminal weaving and bomb industry has entered a seasonal upgrading stage. The rigid demand for raw materials is conducive to stabilizing the operation rate of polyester factories and promoting the digestion of polyester products inventory, which helps to improve the supply and demand pattern of PTA. Last week, the performance of some polyester filament products decreased slightly compared with the previous week. Among them, the mainstream stock of polyester DTY is 27 days, which is reduced by 1.5 days; the polyester FDY stock is 23 days, and the reduction is 0.3 days; the polyester POY stock is 20 days, which is 2 days higher than that of the previous week. In addition, this year's polyester production capacity is mainly concentrated in the first half of this year, which will have certain support for PTA.

　　 Cost side In particular, the collapse of international oil prices is a major drag on the decline in PTA futures prices. The contradiction between the implementation of the OPEC reduction agreement and the increase in output and inventory levels in the United States has been affecting the market for a long time. However, with the gradual reduction of the OPEC yield reduction message, the oil price has narrowed below a narrow operating range for more than 2 months, and the market focus has shifted to the US side. However, in view of the fact that the immediate refinery profits of the United States have stabilized, and the refinery maintenance season is coming to an end, crude oil is expected to enter the inventory phase in the next 2 months.

The drop in oil prices also dragged down the PX price callback. As of March 17th, the Asian PX spot price quoted 852.5 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 872.5 US dollars / ton CFR China, all fell 41 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, but the drop is far less than the oil price. This is mainly based on the influence of the intensive maintenance of the PX device in the second quarter of Asia. This year, the global PX capacity is projected to exceed 4 million tons. From the time of commissioning, most of the devices are expected to be put into operation in the second half of the year (excluding the possibility of delay). Since the new capacity in the first half of the year has limited market impact, the operation of existing devices has become a focus of market attention. Centralized maintenance has reduced the spot supply and supported PX prices. The price difference between PX and naphtha has also been verified to a certain extent. Its price difference level is now above $400 / ton, and is expected to maintain stable operation, and even do not rule out the possibility of further enlarging.

This year PTA There is no definite time for the new capacity launch. The market supply risk is reflected in the restart operation of the pre parking device. At present, the 900 thousand ton plant of the company has been put into operation in February, which has brought a certain increment to the market supply, and the restart time of the Far East Petrochemical Company and Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company in 5-7 months is relatively limited to the actual supply of the market in the first half of the year. From the start up of the plant, the domestic PTA comprehensive operation rate was stable at 74-77% in March. Now the 600 thousand tons of Fujian Jialong plant is in a state of overhaul, and the overall operation level of the PTA device is relatively high.

However, for the processing price difference, due to the recent PTA Price In the middle of February, the spot processing price difference also quickly repaired, from the highest in the middle of February to a level of over 300 yuan / ton. In recent years, the processing price difference has basically maintained at 300-600 yuan / ton, and there is little room for further compression, which will support PTA prices. At the same time, processing price difference repair may reduce PTA factory start intention. The latest news shows that Hengli Petrochemical three line 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment is scheduled for maintenance on March 25th -4 6, the same original spring maintenance Yisheng Dalian Petrochemical is also worth noting, once the implementation of maintenance, will be good PTA trend. Based on the above analysis, although the supply and demand pattern of PTA is still loose, its processing price differentials are further compressed and space is limited. However, along with the stable operation of oil price and PX price, and the demand for supply and demand pattern in the peak season, PTA futures price has a certain rebound power. The main 1705 contract operation range is 5000-5400 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of international oil price and the operation of PTA device.

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