PX Has Gone Through A Wave Of PTA, Squeezing Out The Bubble Before It Can Go Up.

In the near future, futures experienced a sharp decline, and the 3 trading days were back to the gains since last November.

This fall is driven by capital and, of course, the accumulation of PTA's fundamentals.

The rise in PX prices was the main driver of the PTA rally at the end of last year. PX went through two different driving factors: one is crude oil, the other is PX device maintenance expectations.

After the OPEC reached a freeze production agreement at the end of November last year, the rise in crude oil prices led to higher PX prices.

By the end of December last year, crude oil prices had risen from about $45 to around $53 a barrel, and the price of PX rose from 800 to 53.

But after that, crude oil began to stagnant. Crude oil prices had been oscillating between 52 and 54 dollars / barrel interval from January to early March this year.

When crude oil oscillates at high level, it is affected by 3 - May.

The expected impact of device maintenance, PX price rose from $870 / ton to $910 / ton.

According to the overhaul plan announced earlier, at least 5 million to 6 million tons of PX installations will be overhauled in East Asia and South Asia from 3 to May, accounting for 13% to 15% of PX capacity in Asia.

PX maintenance expectation and domestic

The high opening of the device makes the market optimistic about the price of PX, and the price of PXACP in 2 and March is at a high level of 900 US dollars / ton and 905 US dollars / ton respectively.

The difference between PX and Shek Na oil price was large. In the early January, the difference between the two countries was only about 360 US dollars / ton, and went up to about US $420 / ton in early March.

The optimistic expectations of the two quarter pushed PX prices higher in January.

At present, PX has experienced a wave of rise, and the difference between naphtha and naphtha has risen to $420 / ton. If we want to go further, we need to make good repairs.

The increase in cost has pushed up the price of PTA and spot, and the good cash flow of downstream polyester products and the fast recovery of polyester starting rate have pushed up the PTA spot processing fee.

From 1 to February, the average price of PTA spot processing fee was 590 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that of 465 yuan / ton last year and 460 yuan / ton last year.

Since the second half of last year, downstream of PTA

Continuous improvement in cash flow, polyester filament products and polyester staple products most of the time can maintain a positive cash flow.

Especially in mid December of last year, the price of polyester products went up further after a sharp rise. Although the Spring Festival has declined, the cash flow after the festival has recovered rapidly.

Driven by a good profit level, the operating rate of polyester has increased rapidly after the holiday.

As of late February, the polyester operating rate rose to a high level of more than 86%, higher than last year's high point.

The downstream accelerated production will further enhance the market's optimistic expectations for PTA and push up the PTA period, spot prices and processing fees.

At the same time, with the recovery rate of polyester starting to rise, the downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom factory started no corresponding recovery, which made the polyester polyester product inventory increasing.

In fact, after the new year's day, the stock of polyester products has been increasing. As of mid March, it is close to the high point in the middle of last year.

However, the price promotions launched in late February did not change the trend of inventory accumulation, which aggravated the market's concern about the high inventory of polyester.

In short, more than the sum of technical amendments to trigger the PTA futures callback, while the oil slump further aggravated the market sell-off, PTA futures experienced a few consecutive drop.

Judging from OPEC's statement, the crude oil production restriction will continue to be implemented. The decline in crude oil prices caused by the increase in US output and inventory will only bring down the focus of crude oil prices, which will hardly lead to a downward trend.

At present, the price of PX has dropped to about 860 US dollars / ton, and PX has dropped to 390 - 400 US dollars / tonne of naphtha oil price, and PTA spot processing fee has dropped to 300 - 400 yuan / ton.

There is no need to be pessimistic about the PTA market in the future, and the market of cost push and processing fee repair can still be expected.

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