Can The High Processing Fee And High Opening Rate Of PTA Industry Be Maintained?

Due to the economic rebound, the market has strong expectations for the 1 quarter demand.

From last week's survey of East China, terminal weaving took a wait-and-see attitude towards the higher price polyester filament and short line, mainly by consumption before the year, and the stock could maintain normal production until the beginning of March.

In the first half of March, factories in Shaoxing and Changshu, where the rate of operation is relatively low, will have high load production.

To understand whether the PTA industry can maintain high processing fees and high rate of opening up, we can consider it from 3 aspects.

First of all, from the perspective of industrial chain upstream and downstream production profits.

At present, the upstream PX industry, the PTA industry and the downstream polyester industry are all in the profit stage. The whole industry chain is in pition from surplus supply to supply and demand in the past two years.

Secondly, from

Consider the angle.

Since February 10th, weaving units have been resumed. However, due to the late arrival of workers and less driving than expected, the operation rate of terminal weaving units is only 76%, compared with 84% in the same period of history.

That is to say, up to now, the weaving equipment has not been fully driven, and there is still room for further improvement in the latter.

Rigid demand is expected to support raw material prices as more weaving machines are driven.

Third, from the perspective of inventory.

Although the factory stock has accumulated during the Spring Festival holiday, but the inventory is less than the same period last year, especially polyester filament POY, sales are better, inventory is only 12.5 days, less than 20 days in the same period last year, which means polyester industry inventory pressure is not big.

At that time, the terminal demand is carried to the upper reaches, which will support the higher price of raw materials.

Hengli Petrochemical announced the February settlement price of 5950 yuan / ton, March listing price of 6100 yuan / ton, and the current spot price 5600 yuan / ton.

It is clear that the absolute price of PTA is expected to rise.

Judging from the above 3 points, the PTA processing fee is 400-800 yuan / ton fluctuating to normal.

stay

Driven by this, processing fees and operating rates are at a high level and sustainable.

Now let's analyze whether PTA has any more.

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In terms of upstream installations, statistics show that the capacity of overseas PX installations planned for overhaul is 9 million 455 thousand tonnes this year, up from 7 million 920 thousand tons last year.

In terms of downstream installations, it is currently determined that the new 300 thousand ton / year new equipment of Tong Kun Heng Bang will be put into operation in late March, and its main purpose is to take PTA as raw material.

PTA device, Jialong Petrochemical 600 thousand tons / year installation began in late February to repair, Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons / year, Yizheng chemical fiber 1 million tons / year device plan 3-4 months maintenance.

The above 3 sets of equipment overhaul, PTA monthly production will be reduced by 300 thousand tons, coupled with the polyester industry needs increment of 25 thousand tons, converted, in March, through the PTA device maintenance and downstream new device put into operation and reduce the PTA inventory of 325 thousand tons.

This is relatively optimistic compared with the same historical data.

Based on the above analysis, we believe that under the 400-800 yuan / ton processing fee, the PTA5 month contract still has the rising kinetic energy, and the operation interval is expected to be 5500-6000 yuan / ton, and the high point may appear in March.

The operation suggests 5500 yuan / ton entry.

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