Hot Money Did Not Rush Into The Stock Market, Causing A Shares To Shrink.

Since March, the Shanghai Composite Index, which has experienced a weak rebound, has been in the vicinity of the 3200 point for a long time. In the face of continued upward attack, it always breathed a sigh of relief. The 4 successive negative of the stock index exacerbated the already anxious market situation. In March 31st, the Shanghai stock index closed at 3222 points, up 0.38%. Hot money was blocked in the real estate market, but it did not rush into the stock market.

Despite widespread market expectations, the economy is expected to continue to stabilize in the fourth quarter of last year. A number of agencies have forecast that GDP growth will reach 6.8% in the first quarter. But in fact, the reason for restricting the rise of A shares is still in the face of capital. Under the influence of the central bank's disguised interest rate increase and the assessment pressure of the MPA at the end of the banking season (macro Prudential evaluation system), the market funds are facing a tense situation. It is this hidden worry that leads to the lack of bottom up and the trend of concussion.

On the market trend, a number of agencies believe that the short-term A share market will be in the "upper and lower bottom" range of shocks. In the long run, A shares will continue to emerge in an endless stream of investment opportunities. In terms of investment preferences, with the valuation and repair of value stocks and the valuation of growth stocks, more and more institutional investors believe that investment opportunities of growth stocks and value stocks have become more balanced.

At the forum of Boao forum held in March 26th, Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the central bank, said that after years of quantitative easing monetary policy, the world has reached the end of the cycle, which means that monetary policy will no longer be loose. Zhou Xiaochuan also stressed that monetary policy also needs to be changed again and become prudent monetary policy.

For the central bank, it cares more about the financial stability of the banking system. Judging from the recent rhythm of liquidity in the central bank to the market, maintaining the balance of capital will be the theme of this year. Popularly speaking, it is no longer easy to "let go" as in the previous two years, when the market liquidity is basically enough. This means that some special points such as the end of this year's short term tension is normal, and the market will gradually get used to this change.

According to information sources, the A share market is sluggish and the chips are loose and frequent diving has six main factors:

The first is tight liquidity at the end of the quarter. The central bank said that as the end of the month approached, the fiscal expenditure increased further, and the liquidity of the banking system after the repurchase of the central bank was higher than that of the central bank. The central bank has suspended the open market reverse repo operation for fifth days in a row.

Two, the new stock bubble is huge. Under the further escalation of regulatory actions, the collapse of the market has not only caused a heavy setback in market sentiment, but also accelerated the departure of funds.

The three is the profit taking, the hot money scattered to speed up pessimism. On the technical side, the Shanghai stock index has gone out of the rare decline form of four successive Yin, which has a strong psychological implication to the market.

The four is the continuous eruption of the debt crisis, especially the recent outbreak of the debt crisis, which has caused a sharp rise in worries about the financial sector.

The five is the expected resumption of Zhangjiagang bank's resumption. Sub new brokerages Such pressure will drag down the old bank shares.

The six is the decline of macro data. Taking into account the increase in real estate regulation and control, there will be a short-term negative effect on the cyclical industry, and the data will fall back.

In fact, this sentiment is also directly related to the relevant data. In the case of tight funds, the amount of reduction in March is greater than the increase in holdings. As of March 27th, the reduction amount was 12 billion 302 million yuan (12 billion 621 million yuan in February), with an increase of 7 billion 461 million yuan (8 billion 298 million yuan in February). At present, the market sentiment has not been fully recovered in the trend of repeated shocks, and stocks are falling more or less. Investors are still more cautious.

Huatai futures macroeconomic strategy group analyst Zhu Yingyuan pointed out that the recent two cities to maintain shock finishing, MPA assessment under the gold face is still mainly tight, liquidity continues to disturb the stock index. Generally speaking, the market is moving swiftly and disorderly, and the market lacks the mainstream trading logic, resulting in the difficulty of forming resultant force. In the short term, we still have to wait for the full release of capital pressure.

Xu Biao, chief strategist of Tianfeng securities, said there was a certain degree of "money shortage" between banks in the near future. It may be related to the MPA assessment at the end of the quarter, but the impact on the stock market is relatively limited. This may be due to the fact that the "money shortage" is not serious enough. On the other hand, it may be that the source of A share market is not directly related to the banks, the lever level is low and the overall position center is lower than the previous two or three years, which leads to a relatively strong resistance to the market in the short run. As time goes on in April, the impact of the MPA assessment is phased out, and the capital side should have a positive response at the margin.

In recent years, many cities have tightened their property controls, and a number of financial deleveraging measures have been introduced. The peripheral capital side also appears tight at the end of the quarter, which undoubtedly exacerbates the A shares' short beard to a certain extent. However, contrary to the tightening of external conditions of the stock market, the activity of public and private institutions has improved significantly in recent years. Compared with the previous stage, these organizations are relatively indifferent to the short-term changes in the external environment, starting from the more certainty of the micro certainty investment opportunities, looking for and grasping the high-quality chips.

Reporters noted that even in the context of market volatility, the willingness of investment institutions to leave is not strong. Statistics show that in last year's shock market, the scale of public fund management has reached a new record, but most companies suffered losses last year. Data show that in the 72 fund companies that publish annual report data, only 40% of the company's products have achieved profits as a whole last year, which means that most fund investors are in a loss.

　　 private placement It's hard to be independent. According to the published statistics, 1056 of the 3067 private strategic private placement products have been negative earnings this year. The worst performance is -33.67%. However, the enthusiasm of fund companies has not been reduced. Data show that as of March 29th, the number of newly established funds in the first quarter was 322, an increase of 79.89% over the same period, and a total of 277 billion 356 million shares were raised, representing an increase of 69% over the same period last year.

Standing at the present point of view, the fund managers who believe in the growth of domestic demand believe that there are three factors in the market: first, because of the inertia of economic recovery, the profitability of listed companies, especially the upper and middle reaches, is still improving; secondly, in the large categories of assets, the "bar rod" process of bonds is still going on, and the real estate is under strong control policies.

In terms of cost performance or short-term policy, equity assets are dominant; third, the allocation of insurance premiums at the beginning of the year will also increase. However, some negative factors that can not be ignored still exist, such as interest rate In the past few months, the "no size" has been lifted. Due to real estate regulation and "deleveraging", the economic recovery is under some pressure, and the market valuation is suppressed.

Xu Biao said that in the background of inhibiting asset bubbles this year, the probability of the sharp rise and fall of the stock market has been further reduced, but the key is still maintaining the stability of the market. However, for the A share market, although there is no big market expectations, but in the face of factors such as the fundamentals of the market are getting warmer, technical repair and investment recovery, we can expect to achieve a steady and steady growth pattern.

Zhu Shaoxing, manager of fortune growth fund manager, seems likely that the market opportunities in 2017 will come from high-quality stocks. From the comparison of large class assets, under the background of "asset shortage", equity assets have relative attractiveness. In a longer time interval, under the current valuation, we can still find enough stocks to pursue the returns generated by the growth of enterprises.

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