The Central Bank Of China Has Not Announced The Effect Of Raising Interest Rates.

In recent years, the world's economic field is very busy, from time to time, flying out of a variety of "black swan" and "white swan".

Among them, the substantial upward trend of China's capital market interest rate and the announcement of the US tax cut plan may be two seemingly irrelevant events, but have a significant impact on China's economy (which has a significant impact on the world economy).

Of course, this will also profoundly affect China's stock market.

Therefore, we might as well discuss it in depth.

First of all, China's "interest rate increase", in fact, so far, the Central Bank of China has not announced any increase in interest rates. It only raised the interest rate on Treasury bond repurchase and short and medium term loan convenience in the open market operation.

In addition, as commercial banks clean up "outsourcing" business, many products have been redeemed, which has also led to the overall fall in the bond market prices. As a significant reference index of risk-free return, the 10 year treasury bond interest rate has climbed to a high level of 3.5%.

Meanwhile,

The issuance rate has also risen rapidly, and the interest rate of recent corporate bonds has exceeded 7%.

As a result, the stock market has a negative impact on the stock market, because the market interest rate upward will theoretically make stock investors need higher risk compensation, thus weakening the meaning of risk and inducing the pfer of funds to hedge assets.

Of course, the emergence of such a situation itself needs a process, but since its external factors have been formed, people can not but care about this.

Recently

On the other hand, the blue chip stocks represented by Guizhou Moutai went up against the trend, and the stock price kept hitting a new high. Although there are many factors here, it can not be excluded and it also reflects the side of the market's risk aversion.

After all, in the stock market, the risk of blue chip stocks is much smaller than that of other stocks in the context of higher interest rates.

Besides America

This is one of the basic programs put forward by Trump when he ran for president. When it came to power for a hundred days, it was officially launched. In terms of its specific contents, it was not much different from people's expectations.

Once the tax reduction plan is formally implemented, it will still have great impact.

For US companies, a substantial decline in income tax will at least have these effects: encourage expansion of production, increase investment in the US and part of overseas investment back to the US.

The result is that on the one hand, it will enhance the market competitiveness of American enterprises and American products. On the other hand, it will make the United States shrink overseas investment and further attract overseas funds into the United States.

This significant change in international capital flows is certainly good for the recovery of the US economy.

But for other countries, especially the emerging economies, it will be a certain pressure.

Perhaps, in the context of normal and smooth operation of the market, this effect can be largely ignored, but this is not necessarily the case now.

The pain caused by deleveraging and cracking down on irregularities is far from over. With such external factors interfering, the stock market will naturally become more difficult.

Admittedly, after the fall in April, people in the market are steady and the index is not very high.

Moreover, the substantial upward trend of capital market interest rate is not what has just appeared. It may not bring about such a big impact in imagination. However, its long-term impact needs to attract attention from all sides and make corresponding preparations.

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