The Slow Bull Market And Long Term Bull Market May Not Be Far Away From Us.

Many believe that China's economy will be the two bottom and take it as a reason to see many bond markets. We think it is totally wrong.

Admittedly, we do not deny that the possibility of "high and low before 2017" exists in the whole year of the economy. However, the "high volatility" of the economy is totally different from the "two bottom finding". The trend of China's economic stabilization has not changed, and there is no possibility of "two bottom finding".

In the short term, the view that "pessimism of the economy is expected to support the bull market" may be "muddle through". But in the future, with the repeated recognition of the economic recovery, the pessimism of the economy will be revised and the logic of the debt market will be revised.

Since the four quarter of 2016, there has been great divergence in the judgement of the future economic trend in the market. The root of the divergence lies in two core points: one is the 930 regulation policy of real estate in 2016, the other is that the financial risk prevention policy may lift the financing difficulty and financing cost of enterprises.

As time went on, economic data were continuously released, and we made a simple review: in the fourth quarter of 2016, GDP was 6.8% year-on-year and 6.9% in the first quarter of 2017, and the industrial added value continued to rise from 6.10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 6.95 in the first quarter of 2016 and 6.5 in the two quarter (4 in May, two months in the month), or even on the "upward step"; manufacturing PMI GDP continued 8 months from 51 to 51; exports rose from -11.89% in the first quarter to 7.5% in the first quarter of the year; CPI data also increased moderately from the increase in the first quarter.

"Three," the good logic of the "two bottom" can not stand at all. What we believe more is that even though housing prices may weaken to real estate investment, it may lead to a certain drag on the economy, and financial risk prevention may lift the financing difficulty and financing cost of enterprises to a certain extent. This is why we do not deny the "high before and after low" of the whole year in 2017. But what is more noteworthy is that the current Chinese economy is not a "grass" that can not resist the wind and rain. The internal driving force of China's economy is constantly accumulating, and external exports are continuing well. China's economic stabilization will be a big probability event. The "two bottom finding" view is a major misjudgement of China's economic situation. We believe that the four quarter of 2016 has nearly 8 months, and the economic data are "one after another".

In June 19, 2017, the Xinhua News Agency commentary "China's economic stability and good momentum has not changed", reflecting the policy level for China's economic optimism, also can verify the 2017 China's economic probability to stabilize.

In the past 10 years, the new economic sectors listed in Hong Kong accounted for only 3% of the total market value of the stock market, while the Nasdaq, NYSE and London exchanges were 60%, 47% and 14% respectively.

Hongkong is aware of the problem and is ready to catch up and change the status quo. The target resources of its listed companies are aimed at the mainland.

But what is the problem facing mainland capital market? If we suspend the IPO, we will not just be able to spin the cocoon to ourselves, and let the "good listing resources" be let alone?

The listing of US charts can go higher or lower the issue price, which is a good or bad process.

It is the law of nature to tide over the sand and overcome the fittest. As long as the rules are established, the company that will continue to create wealth will grow and benefit the investors, otherwise, it will be ruthlessly eliminated.

The wheel of history is rolling forward. We have come to this moment and need to make a firm and responsible choice for our future. IPO can not stop, and the best registration system! Of course, the delisting system can be more stringent, and the corresponding laws and regulations should also be more stringent.

Therefore, the view that "the pessimism of the economy will support the bull market" is likely to be "muddle through" in the short term. But we believe that the momentum of China's economic stabilization will not change in 2017. With the recognition of the economic recovery trend, the logic of economic distress is expected to be corrected, and the future economic recovery is expected to improve.

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