A Shares Into MSCI Good Low-Key To Internationalization Is Imperative

Compared with the previous three years, this year's A share is the most low-key in MSCI. Management is low-key, and the media is not very interested. Finally, A shares magic.

Foreigners game rules are also very interesting, not the traditional way to take the village, "quietly enter the village, do not shoot the gun" in advance lurking, but everything is playing cards, telling the public that it is not practical now, specifically included in June next year, and told the first batch of 222 stocks are listed, brushing the list, also tell you that according to the size of the current A shares, the first batch of A shares are included in the weight of 5%, but only MSCI

0.73% of the weight.

Everything was announced in advance.

It seems that this kind of playing card is not enough. The head of MSCI also told us this week that after 222 stocks, 195 middle stocks will be selected, and then there will be 195. The first batch of 222 stocks is already a clear card, while the 195 of the second batches will be dim.

These two steps are now put in front of investors, making stock expectations. The expectations of these two steps will not exceed 2 years in terms of time.

It seems that such an expectation is still unable to give directions to everyone, and a more distant description is coming out this week.

Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission this week, said

More A shares will be included in the future. Theoretically, it may reach 30%. The volume of Shanghai and Hong Kong links and Shenzhen Hong Kong links may not be enough. In the future, we may solve the quota problem through reforming QFII.

Based on the inclusion of A shares 5% and MSCI, some Chinese A share cap stocks are expected to bring about 170 to 18 billion US dollars in capital inflow.

If China's A shares are all incorporated in the future, the scale of capital inflow may reach about $340 billion.

Now this description seems to be the 10 year plan for the development of the A share market in the future, the first step is 222 stocks, the second step is 195 stocks, the 30% step of the third step A shares, and the fourth steps are all going to "rub in", so that the Chinese stock market will complete the whole process of internationalization in four steps, which is probably the development trend of the Chinese stock market in the future.

At the more than 3100 point of the Shanghai Composite Index, we seem to be able to imagine this. Far from it, say one year later. Next year, when the 222 stocks become the standard of international organizations, what will be the Shanghai index?

There are several kinds of imagination: first, from now on, until next year, at this time next year, the market will go to 5000 to 6000 points to allow international capital to take over: the second big market will continue to seek support under the net, next year it will fall to around 2638 points, let international capital to collect the bottom; third, continue the small Yin and Yang consolidation, wait until next year, officially enter the "bull market".

Of these three possibilities, the probability of the first second is not large, and the probability of the third is relatively high. This seems to be a corroboration of the trend of the current stock market's tempering water, and is still fierce in the A shares.

For investors, this point of view may not be profitable from a short-term perspective, but from the long term, it will win a lot.

In fact, from the first batch of 222 underlying stocks, covering the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 heavyweight shares, mostly covering the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 heavyweight stocks, and then the second echelon introduced, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market several big index all covered, the next market speculation is only a re arrangement of the portfolio to create a new concept of MSCI.

Because these MSCI stocks will become the standard of international capital, all kinds of domestic institutions will also incorporate these underlying stocks into the standard. Therefore, investors should follow these hot spots, only in this way can they share the fruits of stock market development with the main force.

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