Xinjiang Cotton City: High And Low Quality Cotton Spreads Widened Further

There have been some changes in the spot market in Xinjiang recently. The number of mainland enterprises surveyed in Xinjiang has increased, and the price difference between high and low quality cotton has further widened. According to a person in charge of a cotton enterprise in Akesu, "recently, enterprises in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, Hubei and other places in Xinjiang have increased. The main purpose is to investigate the growth of cotton in Xinjiang, the distribution and processing capacity of cotton enterprises, and prepare for the next year's operation." It is understood that some mainland enterprises have signed a lease or contract.

High quality Xinjiang cotton and long staple cotton do not pay attention to the market trend, and the cotton prices of inferior quality fall again. According to the national cotton market monitoring system released by China cotton sowing area survey report, in 2017, the national cotton sowing area of 47 million 573 thousand mu, an increase of 3 million 728 thousand mu, an increase of 8.5%, the total output of 5 million 370 thousand tons forecast. Internationally, according to the report issued by the US Department of agriculture in June 30th, the sown area of US cotton in 2017 was 12 million 50 thousand acres, up 20% over the same period last year. The area of upland cotton is 11 million 800 thousand acres, an increase of 19%, and the Pima cotton area is 252 thousand acres, an increase of 30%.

In terms of fundamentals, American cotton Last week, the actual coverage area was estimated to be 12 million 100 thousand hectares, less than market expectations and USDA's official estimate. The report was quite unexpected, reversing the short cut; and when the US cotton export contract data released by the week were better, it also helped to boost the US cotton market to a certain extent. However, it should be noted that the output estimate given by USDA 8 before is based on the average yield per year for 5 years, and it is impossible to exclude the possibility that the output will be raised after the actual survey data of NASS in August.

At home, it is still considered that the contract should not be overlooked. In the medium to long term, there are still uncertainties in the recent contracts (8, September or supplementary market, high grade cotton in the market, etc.). The main trend factor of the new moon contract is also abroad: the growth of the US cotton area is a foregone conclusion, and the growth story is still on the stage. From the existing data, we still tend to maintain a near strong and weak mentality. Due to the report on the actual coverage area of the US cotton, the recent rebound is mainly at home and abroad. On the operation, it is suggested that in January, a single warehouse will be held.

The reserve price of the cotton liner has been raised. According to the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance Reserve cotton The announcement of rotation arrangements (2016 No. ninth) calculated the reserve price for the reserve cotton. The reserve price of cotton reserves was eighteenth weeks (2016/2017 3-7 days) in July, and the reserve price of standard cotton was 15167 yuan / ton, which was 30 yuan / ton higher than seventeenth weeks. The reserve price of cotton reserve has been raised for 5 weeks after a total reduction of 748 yuan / ton, which is regarded as a turning point in the market. It indicates that the price of reserve cotton will stop and rebound.

Up to now, due to storage, interest and other factors, cotton spot. cost At a price of 16200 yuan / ton and above, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and their prices are rising quietly, which will play a supporting role in cotton prices. In the short term, domestic cotton prices will stabilize or stabilize for a period of time. The trend of the future market needs to pay close attention to the domestic and foreign cotton market changes. As a matter of fact, the cotton market still has more resources to choose from, and the reserve cotton price has an advantage. The warehouse receipt volume is still at a high level, while the downstream consumption is in the off-season. With the end of the phase of the USDA report, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals. It is suggested that we should consider building empty positions at high prices.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.